The Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Patriots hosting the Texans and the Rams at the Bears.
Divisional Round Best Bet Prediction: New England Patriots Under 22.5 Points (-115)
The Patriots had one of the NFL’s best offenses this year by advanced and traditional measures.
According to Sumer Sports, New England was first in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.13), first in EPA per pass (0.29), and fourth in success rate (46.93%) in the regular season.
Per Pro Football Reference, the Patriots were also tied for first in yards per play (6.2) and second in scoring offense (28.8 points per game).
However, they weren’t bulletproof.
They were tied for 17th in EPA per rush (-0.03).
Drake Maye was outstanding in the regular season, ranking first in EPA per play (0.26) among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays.
Yet, like New England’s offense, he wasn’t perfect.
The second-year quarterback was 29th among 42 qualified quarterbacks in sack rate (8.72%).
Maye’s sack-aversion issues showed up against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round.
Los Angeles sacked him 5 times, resulting in a bloated 14.71% sack rate.
New England’s reliance on its passing attack carrying the offense could be problematic this week against the Texans.
Houston’s defense is a well-oiled machine.
The Texans were first in EPA allowed per play (-0.13), first in EPA allowed per pass (-0.19), tied for 11th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.05), second in success rate allowed (37.97%), tied for fourth in yards allowed per play (4.8), third in turnovers forced (29), tied for seventh in sacks (47), and second in scoring defense (17.4 points per game).
Impressively, Houston racked up their sacks with the fifth-lowest blitz rate (18.9%) in the regular season.
New England’s offensive line will have its hands full with Houston’s defensive line.
Will Campbell could be a problem for the Patriots.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Campbell had a 76.1 pass-blocking grade and allowed only 5 sacks, 4 QB hits, 16 hurries, and 25 pressures on 452 pass-blocking snaps from Week 1 through Week 12 before he was injured.
Campbell has struggled since he returned in Week 18.
In two games since returning from a knee injury, Campbell has a 64.7 PFF pass-blocking grade and yielded 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 4 hurries, and 6 pressures on 64 pass-blocking snaps.
Unsurprisingly, Houston’s fearsome defense has traveled.
According to TruMedia, Houston has yielded only 260.4 yards per game, 4.5 yards per play, 80.8 rushing yards per game, 3.5 yards per rush, 179.7 passing yards per game, and 5.7 net yards per pass attempt with an 8.1% sack rate in nine road games this season.
They’ve held eight opponents to 17 points or fewer in nine games away from Houston this year.
The Seahawks were the only team to exceed 22.5 points against the Texans in their road games this year, scoring 27 against them in Seattle in Week 7.
According to StatHead, the Texans allowed 129 points (14.3 per game) in nine road games this year.
Houston’s elite defense should make Sunday’s game a low-scoring affair and hold the Patriots under 22.5 points.
Divisional Round Best Bet Prediction: Rams-Bears Over 48.5 Points (-110)
The total for Rams at Bears has come down since opening at 50.5 points.
Perhaps frigid temperatures have led to the slide in the game’s total, and how windy the game will be remains unclear.
Regardless, those concerned about the weather in Chicago in the Wild Card Round watched that game shoot out for 58 points.
Conversely, the Rams outlasted the Panthers in a 34-31 victory in Carolina.
The Bears and Rams have outstanding offenses.
The Bears were tied for sixth in EPA per play (0.07), tied for ninth in EPA per pass (0.08), fourth in EPA per rush (0.06), ninth in success rate (45.24%), ninth in yards per play (5.7), and ninth in scoring offense (25.9 points per game) in the regular season.
The Rams were even better.
Los Angeles was tied for second in EPA per play (0.12), third in EPA per pass (0.22), tied for 11th in EPA per rush (-0.01), first in success rate (50.46%), tied for first in yards per play (6.2), and first in scoring offense (30.5 points per game) in the regular season.
Both offenses have versatile attacks, can move the ball, and score points at a high level.
The defenses are less impressive, too.
The Rams were 10th in EPA allowed per play (-0.06), 10th in EPA allowed per pass (-0.08), tied for 13th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.04), 11th in success rate (41.60%), tied for 12th in yards allowed per play (5.2), and 10th in scoring defense (20.4 points allowed per game).
The Rams have the better defense in this matchup, and it was only slightly above average.
Furthermore, they had hiccups down the stretch, including allowing 31 points to the Panthers in Week 13 and 31 to them in the Wild Card Round, 34 to the Lions in Week 15, 38 to the Seahawks in Week 16, and 27 to the Falcons in Week 17.
The Bears have a below-average defense.
Chicago was 21st in EPA allowed per play (0.02), tied for 17th in EPA allowed per pass (0.03), tied for 23rd in EPA allowed per rush (0), 26th in success rate allowed (46.24%), tied for 29th in yards allowed per play (6.0), and 23rd in scoring defense (24.4 points allowed per game).
Chicago’s defense also benefited immensely from forcing turnovers.
The Bears forced a league-high 33 turnovers in the regular season.
If the turnovers dry up, the Rams should have no problem moving the ball and scoring points on them.
Yet, if they continue to force turnovers at a high rate against the Rams, it can provide the Bears with short fields and easier scoring opportunities.
Either outcome is a win for the game’s scoring upside.
The game’s location is probably also a plus for the scoring potential.
Matthew Stafford is better equipped to succeed in a hostile road environment than Caleb Williams.
Per StatHead, Stafford completed 62.8% of his 349 pass attempts for 2,691 yards (269.1 per game), 7.8 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), 27 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and a 102.7 quarterback rating in 10 road games this year.
Meanwhile, in nine home games this season, Williams completed 57.4% of his 303 pass attempts for 2,204 yards (244.9 per game), 7.4 ANY/A, 17 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a 93.4 1uarterback rating.
The Bears averaged 26.2 points per game at home with a median of 26 this season.
The Rams averaged 32.1 points per game on the road with a median of 33.5.
The offenses should rule the roost in this game, and neither team can take its foot off the accelerator without risking opening the door to getting run down.
As a result, this game should go over 48.5 points.