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Not every dollar spent in free agency equates to positive expectation for teams in 2026.
So, while it’s easy to just look at which teams spent the most in free agency and presume that at least some of what they added helped their team, let’s take a different approach when trying to evaluate teams that did well in free agency.
Let’s look at the betting markets and see which teams saw their odds to win their division, their conference, or the Super Bowl improve the most.
To do this, let’s look purely at odds movement two days before legal tampering started (Saturday morning) to two days after free agency began (Thursday night) to see which teams saw their odds improve the most.
2026 NFL Odds: Steelers Winners in Free Agency
Surprisingly, the Steelers saw their odds drop across the board in the AFC the most of any mid-tier or better team.
Their average odds to win the AFC North dropped from +650 to +530, and their odds to win the AFC decreased from 33:1 to 30:1.
Pittsburgh would not be the first team I considered at free agency winners, but I love their signing of Jamel Dean and view him as one of the top steals of free agency.
With Dean off the field the last two years, the Bucs defense ranked:
#32 EPA/attempt (+0.18)
#31 success rate (50%)
#31 Y/A (7.9)
#32 quarterback rating (112)
But when Dean was playing for the Bucs, their defense ranked:
#11 EPA/attempt (-0.01)
#14 success rate (46%)
#12 Y/A (7.0)
#10 quarterback rating (89)
In addition to Dean, the Steelers added WR Michael Pittman Jr. via trade and signed RB Rico Dowdle, S Darnell Savage, and S Jaquan Brisker.
Interestingly, the shift in the Steelers' odds was limited to them winning the North and the AFC, but not the Super Bowl.
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2026 NFL Odds: Saints & Panthers Winners in Free Agency
Next up, we have two teams from the NFC South: the Saints and the Panthers.
The Saints moved from +375 to +310 to win the NFC South and from 62:1 to 46:1 to win the NFC.
Additionally, the Saints' Super Bowl odds were slashed from 150:1 to 75:1 at DraftKings, a MASSIVE shift.
The Panthers moved from +460 to +375 to win the NFC South and from 65:1 to 48:1 to win the NFC.
Interestingly, neither move changed the expected finish position for either team in the NFC South.
The Saints are still projected to finish in second place behind the Bucs, and the Panthers are still projected to finish in fourth place behind the Falcons.
Presumably, the signings that moved the needle most in New Orleans were RB Travis Etienne to logically replace Alvin Kamara and LG David Edwards, who will anchor the line in front of QB Tyler Shough.
Kamara gained only 3.6 YPC (#47 of 48 RBs) last season, which was 0.7 rushing yards under expected (#48 of 48 RBs) last year.
Out of 55 RBs with 75+ rushes, Kamara ranked:
#52 in success rate (31%)
#51 in EPA/rush (-0.14)
#51 in YPC (3.6)
#50 in yards after contact/rush (2.6)
This was despite facing some of the lightest boxes of any running back.
28% of his carries came against 8+ man boxes, the #3 lowest rate.
68% came against 7+ man boxes, the #6 lowest rate.
Etienne has his warts (especially in short yardage), but he is an upgrade over an aging Kamara.
In addition, the Saints signed LB Kaden Elliss, TE Noah Fant, and P Ryan Wright.
Overall, the Saints have spent the sixth most of any team in free agency.
The Panthers have spent $165.7M in free agency, fifth most of any team.
They signed 11 players, also the fifth most of any team.
They spent the most on any one player, signing EDGE Jaelan Phillips for $120M over 4 years.
Among all players with at least 200 pass rush snaps last season, Phillips ranked fifth with an 18.8% pressure rate.
That was the best rate of his career, but his 14.6% career pressure rate would have ranked in the top 25 among that same group last season.
Carolina really had only one other player they signed for more than one season, and that was LB Devin Lloyd for $45 million over three seasons.
Their remaining signings were all one-year deals, including players like backup QB Kenny Pickett and C Luke Fortner.
2026 NFL Odds: Raiders Winners in Free Agency
The biggest overall shift for a team not expected to compete this year was with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Though their Super Bowl odds didn’t move meaningfully at all, their odds to win the AFC West dropped from 27:1 to 20:1, and their odds to win the AFC dropped from 100:1 to 71:1.
Only the Titans spent more than the Raiders in free agency, and Las Vegas made the splash move of overpaying to ensure they landed C Tyler Linderbaum from the Ravens.
They made moves to improve their front seven on defense, acquiring EDGE Kwity Paye, LBs Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, and CB Eric Stokes.
They also traded for CB Taron Johnson and signed WR Jalen Nailor.
The Raiders also saw their trade of Maxx Crosby fall through, meaning that instead of losing him to the Ravens, he looks slated to suit up for the Raiders.
That is actually a massive boost and not what the market was expecting, thus a big part of this change.
2026 NFL Free Agency Odds Movement: Top Teams
Let’s next turn our focus to the best teams in each conference to highlight any favorable odds movement.
Among the top-five teams projected to win the NFC (Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, Packers, Lions), the only team that became a stronger favorite was the Rams.
The Rams shifted from +420 to +395 on average to win the NFC and from +150 to +140 to win the NFC West.
The biggest moves for the Rams were to beef up their secondary.
They traded with the Chiefs for CB Trent McDuffie and then signed former Chiefs CB Jaylen Watson.
It wasn’t much, but they addressed a clear need with aggression and precision, and the market respected it.
Among the projected top-nine teams in the AFC (Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers, Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Jaguars, and Bengals, in that order), the only team that became a stronger favorite was the Bills.
The Bills shifted from +500 to win the AFC on average to +465, and from -140 to win the AFC East to -152.
Meanwhile, the Patriots shifted from +138 to +157.
Buffalo made a splash by signing EDGE Bradley Chubb to a $43.5M contract for three years.
Buffalo also signed CB Dee Alford from the Falcons, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson from the Bears, and traded with the Bears for WR D.J. Moore.
Despite the Patriots spending the #4 most money in free agency (significantly more than #21-ranked Buffalo) and signing WR Romeo Doubs, OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, and EDGE Dre’Mont Jones, among others, New England saw their odds to win both the AFC East and AFC Conference get worse.