The wait is finally over. The 2025 NFL season is here, allowing bettors to dive into one of the most exciting player prop markets: Who will lead the league in rushing yards in Week 1?
Most Week 1 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): James Conner (+1400)
The Cardinals are the second-largest favorites on Sunday, which bodes well for veteran running back James Conner.
There has been offseason lip service to increasing the number of carries Trey Benson receives, which was over accounted for in Week 1.
Through 16 weeks last season, Conner handled 69.8% of the running back carries and was effective, averaging 3.34 yards per carry after contact.
The Cardinals have the second-biggest improvement in strength of schedule from last year.
In wins last season, Conner averaged 17.8 attempts and 87.4 yards compared to 13.3 attempts and 59.7 yards in losses.
As touchdown favorites against the New Orleans Saints, it is likely that the Cardinals will be near the top of Sunday in rush attempts.
The Saints defense finished 30th in EPA per rush and rush success rate.
The Cardinals offense finished the season in the top 10 of both metrics and returned the same offensive line.
The Cardinals will have a mix of volume and success in the run game, which provides Conner an opportunity to lead all running backs in yards on Sunday.
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Week 1 Rushing Yards Longshot Bet: Dylan Sampson First to 20 Rushing Yards Browns vs. Bengals (+1100)
There is uncertainty in the running back rotation in Cleveland, which provides value on rookie running back Dylan Sampson.
The Bengals defense will be remembered for allowing Bill Croskey-Merritt to score a 27-yard touchdown in the preseason, something Cincy struggled with last year.
They ranked 31st in defensive rush success rate.
The Browns added Harold Fannin Jr, a signal that they will increase the 12 personnel usage, which could improve rush efficiency.