Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Ravens facing the Vikings and the Saints taking on the Panthers.
Week 10 Best Bet Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Over 26.5 Points (-122)
The Ravens are rolling out of their Week 7 bye.
Even with Tyler Huntley starting in Week 8, they hung 30 points on the Bears.
Lamar Jackson returned from a four-week absence to trounce the Dolphins in Week 9, leading the Ravens to 28 points.
In Jackson’s five starts this season, Baltimore has scored 40, 41, 30, 20, and 28 points.
Thus, the Ravens have averaged 31.8 points per game, with a median of 30 in Jackson’s starts.
Despite his season being paused because of a hamstring injury, Jackson is having a sensational campaign.
According to Sumer Sports, Jackson is second in expected points added (EPA) per play among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this year.
The two-time NFL MVP has a fantastic matchup this week.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Vikings have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (279), the second-most adjusted net yards per pass attempt (9.29), and 8 passing touchdowns with only 1 interception since Week 6.
Unsurprisingly, the Brian Flores-coached defense has blitzed a ton.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Vikings have the second-highest blitz rate (40.6%) this year.
Blitzing Jackson isn’t advised.
Jackson is the fourth-highest graded passer by Pro Football Focus (PFF) among 31 blitzed on at least 50 dropbacks this year.
Jackson has been blitzed 55 times and completed 37 of 47 attempts (78.7%) for 465 yards, 9.9 yards per attempt, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
Jackson should shred the Vikings.
Derrick Henry has also excelled in Jackson’s starts.
In Jackson’s five starts, Henry has trounced opponents for 403 rushing yards (80.6 per game), 5.93 yards per carry, a 10.3% explosive run rate, and 3 rushing touchdowns.
If Baltimore’s suddenly healthier defense plays well, it can provide the offense with favorable field position.
According to StatHead, among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts since 2000, J.J. McCarthy’s 17.50% sack rate is the fifth-highest.
Additionally, McCarthy’s 5.3% turnover-worthy play rate is tied for the third-highest among 39 quarterbacks with at least 70 dropbacks this year.
Again, the Ravens could have short fields if McCarthy continues to play mistake-filled football.
Conversely, if Baltimore’s defense continues to struggle and McCarthy plays better, the Vikings could push the Ravens to keep scoring.
Either outcome would help the Ravens exceed 26.5 points for the fifth time in a Jackson start this year.
Week 10 Best Bet Prediction: New Orleans Saints Under 16.5 Points (+100)
The Saints have an objectively lousy offense by traditional and advanced measures.
According to Pro Football Reference, New Orleans is 30th in yards per play (4.7) and 31st in scoring offense (15.3 points per game).
Per Sumer Sports, the Saints are 30th in EPA per play (-0.15), 30th in EPA per pass (-0.16), tied for 29th in EPA per rush (-0.13), and 25th in success rate (41.42%).
New Orleans has nothing they can hang their hat on offensively.
As a result, per TruMedia, the Saints are dead last in time of possession (26:37) per game this year.
They can’t move the ball, and you can’t score points if you don’t possess the ball.
Meanwhile, according to nfelo, the Panthers have an NFL-low -7.6% pass rate over expectation (PROE).
They want to force-feed Rico Dowdle the ball and keep the ball out of their opponent’s hands.
The Panthers don’t have an elite defense.
In fact, they have a below-average defense.
Still, Carolina’s defense is essentially slightly below average instead of a dumpster fire.
The Panthers are 24th in EPA allowed per play (0.06), seventh in success rate allowed (41.25%), tied for 20th in yards allowed per play (5.5), and 16th in scoring defense (22.8 points per game).
Carolina’s defense has also had moments of excellence.
They shut out the Falcons in Week 3, held the Jets to 6 points in Week 7, and allowed only 13 points to the Packers last week.
Tyler Shough isn’t the quarterback to get the best of Carolina’s defense.
Shough is 39th in EPA per pass (-0.26) among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this season.
The Saints scored just 3 and 13 points in Shough’s two starts.
Things won’t be any easier for the rookie signal-caller this week after the club traded speedy pass catcher Rashid Shaheed.
Shaheed is also a talented punt returner, with a punt return touchdown in 2023 and another in 2024.
His absence eliminates a potential headache for those on the Saints under 16.5 points.
It doesn’t take much going wrong to get burned on such a low team under.
Nevertheless, the Saints haven’t shown any offensive spark, failing to reach 17 points in five of nine games, including both of Shough’s starts.
So, the Saints under for 16.5 points at even money is a compelling wager.