After a week of blowout victories, five games were determined by a field goal or less and nine by a touchdown or less in Week 9, which resulted in a boost to 100-yard receiving games.
The prior week had two 100-yard receivers.
Week 9 jumped to 10 players total, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba leading the way with 129 yards.
Of the 10 players to reach 100 yards, seven were wide receivers and a season high three tight ends hit the century receiving mark.
This column had highlighted the decrease in wide receiver usage compared to previous years, and Week 9 returned to that theme.
54.8% of targets went to wide receivers as a spike in tight end target share occurred.
Compared to last season, wide receivers are down in target share.
Those targets have shifted to tight ends, which is understandable as teams increase offensive diversity with heavier sets and more tight ends.
There is a lot of variance chasing most receiving yards since there are more players who can potentially lead each week.
However, chasing volume in condensed target trees is critical as game state is least important for receivers.
NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Wide Receiver | Receiving Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zay Flowers | 140 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Malik Nabers | 167 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Tre Tucker | 145 | Washington Commanders |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | 170 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Emeka Egbuka | 163 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | George Pickens | 168 | Carolina Panthers |
| 7 | Devonta Smith | 183 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 8 | Tucker Kraft | 143 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 9 | Jaxson Smith-Njigba | 129 | Washington Commanders |
Most Week 10 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): Puka Nacua (+650)
Nacua’s advantage over Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the fact that the Seahawks average a league low 29 dropbacks per game.
The Rams are 4.5-point road favorites, but the 49ers defeated the Rams earlier this season as a larger underdog and are healthier on offense for this game.
The previous matchup between these two teams had 711 combined passing yards, indicating that if this game remains competitive, the environment for a shootout exists.
Despite Nacua’s recent injuries, McVay, like the coach on the other side of the field, can’t help himself when it comes to player usage.
The NFC West is very tightly contested, and the divisional games are of the utmost importance.
Nacua, who practiced in full on Thursday, will be a large part of the Rams' game plan.
Nacua is keeping up with last year's incredible usage and averaging 36.1% target rate and 3.52 yards per route, which has been overshadowed by Smith-Njigba’s unprecedented start to the season.
Before last week, the 49ers were allowing 8.0 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks, as this defense continues to struggle to generate pressure.
A competitive game and an injury-riddled 49ers defense provide Nacua a great opportunity to compile receiving yardage.
Don't Miss Out on the Best Betting Recommendations Available
Warren Sharp is entering his 20th year providing winning betting recommendations to clients.
A $100 bettor has won $4,462 following Warren’s picks so far this season.
A $100 bettor won $15,636 following Warren’s picks last season.
Click here to learn more about 2025 Betting Packages!
Week 10 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Jauan Jennings Ladders
- Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
- 60+ Receiving Yards (+165)
- 100+ Receiving Yards (+810)
- Over 4.5 Receptions (+106)
- 5+ Receptions (+209)
The Rams defense is probably the most underrated defense up to this point of the year, but Kyle Shanahan has found success.
The Rams are fourth in DVOA on passes to opposing tight ends and ninth to running backs, which has funneled 59.8% of passes to wide receivers, well above league average.
This is the matchup that started the Jennings breakout last season, as he recorded 175 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns against the Rams.
Jennings missed the Week 3 matchup against the Rams, but Shanahan was able to create an advantage with Kendrick Bourne in that matchup, who recorded 142 receiving yards.
With all of the defensive injuries to the 49ers, the Rams should have success on offense, creating the need for the 49ers to remain aggressive in this matchup.
The 49ers implemented some new players to the offense against the Giants, and Jennings only ran 8 routes in the second half of the game, which may have been strategic with the divisional game against the Rams on deck.