Similar to Rico Dowdle earlier in the season, Kyle Monangai took advantage of the D'Andre Swift absence and rushed for 176 yards to lead all running backs in Week 9.
Dowdle has backed his earlier performances up with continued elite rushing, whereas the Bears' success is less likely running back related and more system and opponent-driven, although it will be interesting to keep an eye on how much the rookie cuts into Swift’s workload moving forward.
Week 9 featured six running backs who hit the century rushing mark, and like the previous week, all were on the victorious team.
To date this season, 48 running backs have reached 100 rushing yards in a game.
39 of those were on the winning team.
Game state matters for rushing yards, as leading or winning is generally correlated with increased rushing volume.
In chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, favorites or short dogs who can win should be on the list of running backs to target.
Team-specific rush defense trends are also starting to develop.
The New England Patriots have not allowed an opposing running back more than 49 rushing yards in a game, and the leading rusher against them this season is Josh Allen.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed a 100-yard rushing in five of nine games, and the opposing lead running back has reached at least 65 yards in eight consecutive games.
NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Running Back | Rushing Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 169 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor | 165 | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | David Montgomery | 151 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Ashton Jeanty | 138 | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Rico Dowdle | 206 | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rico Dowdle | 183 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 7 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 136 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 8 | James Cook | 216 | Carolina Panthers |
| 9 | Kyle Monangai | 176 | Cincinnati Bengals |
Most Week 10 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Quinshon Judkins (+700)
Given the criteria listed above, the running backs that stand out the most are Rico Dowdle, Derrick Henry, and Quinshon Judkins as volume-based running backs on a team that is favored on Sunday.
The Browns are coming off a bye and play a New York Jets team that has been a train wreck in terms of meeting expectations all season.
The vibes in the Jets locker room are at an all-time low after trading Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, with several other players openly stating a desire to play elsewhere.
Management has signaled this team is throwing the towel in on the season, and rookie head coach Aaron Glenn has not provided a lot of inspiration on either side of the football.
The last time the Jets took the field, they surrendered 8 yards per carry to the Cincinnati Bengals running backs, and they are now without their best run defender as a result of a trade.
Judkins has handled 83.7% of the running back carries since Week 3 and faces a team that may not be at 100% in terms of effort level, providing an opportunity for some explosive plays.
The Browns offensive line ranks 20th in rush block win rate.
However, Jack Conklin has been dealing with an injury, which the bye week should have helped.
Judkins is a rookie who missed the entire pre-season and training camp.
A post-bye improvement bump could occur for the rookie as his offseason problems are further in the rear-view mirror.
The Jets are averaging 24.6 opponent running back rush attempts per game, the fourth most in the league, which provides a bit of a runway for Judkins if the Browns can get off to an early lead.
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Week 10 Running Back Longshot Bet: Kyren Williams Ladders
- Over 2.5 Receptions (+111)
- 4+ Receptions (+271)
- 5+ Receptions (+620)
- Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Over the past three seasons, Williams has handled 78% of the Rams running back carries, which is absolutely remarkable given the positional injury rate and the NFL shifting away from bell-cow running back usage.
Williams is currently on pace for his best receiving season, as he is at a career best 0.98 yards per route and 20.75 yards per game.
What stands out is that the Rams have played in positive game states.
The Rams have a +89 point differential, and still, Williams is on pace for his best receiving season.
Underneath the hood, Sean McVay has altered how his running back is used in the passing game.
Williams is averaging 2.77 air yards per target.
Last season, he averaged -0.8 air yards per target.
Williams has two career games in which he has earned more than 7 targets.
Both were 10-target games against the 49ers, against whom he averages 36 receiving yards.
McVay tends to lean on Williams in close games.
Should Sunday’s divisional battle remain close, Williams should remain on the field for the majority of the offensive snaps.