Jared Goff broke all of the passing leader tendencies.
The Lions led by 15 points at halftime and won by 22 points, which is a testament to Dan Campbell’s coaching style.
Mac Jones and Josh Allen both threw for over 300 yards, as both the 49ers and Bills fell behind by multiple scores early.
That forced the offenses to remain pass-heavy throughout the entire game.
Through 10 weeks of the season, six of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and three quarterbacks were trailing at halftime, with Goff and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns as the outlier.
Game state continues to be very important.
Teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.
Identifying which of the home underdogs can win or keep the game competitive should be the first step in selecting which games to attack for DFS and passing props.
This week is shaping up to be a more competitive week as the largest spread of the 14 games on Sunday is 7.5 points.
There are several divisional and conference matchups with playoff importance, with only two games between teams in opposite conferences.
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 37-40 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 389 | San Francisco 49ers | 23-26 |
| 6 | Mac Jones | 347 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 19-30 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | 420 | Indianapolis Colts | 24-38 |
| 8 | Jordan Love | 360 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-25 |
| 9 | Joe Flacco | 470 | Chicago Bears | 42-47 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | 320 | Washington Commanders | 44-22 |
Most Week 11 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Brock Purdy (+1000)
The 49ers have had 9 pass attempts this season with Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings all on the field.
They are all expected to be available against the Cardinals on Sunday.
Both the 49ers and Cardinals are top 10 in combined passes per game, and games with both teams average over 70 pass attempts per game, well above the league average of 64.8.
This matchup is played indoors, while several other games on Sunday will be dealing with wind and precipitation.
The 49ers are allowing the fourth-worst dropback success rate, and the Cardinals rank eighth-worst.
The game total has crept upward since opening, and the point spread is within a field goal, all conditions for a competitive game environment.
That is the key to reaching ceiling passing outcomes.
As mentioned in Rich Hribar’s Worksheet, the 49ers have gained 73.4% of their yardage via passing, the second-highest rate in the league, despite the rotating injuries among 49ers quarterbacks and pass catchers.
Purdy returns against a defense that has struggled to generate pressure and sacks.
The Cardinals rank 25th in pressure rate and 27th in sack rate.
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Week 11 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Justin Herbert Passing Ladders
- Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-121)
- 40+ Pass Attempts (+261)
- 44+ Pass Attempts (+670)
Shout out to 61-year-old Jim Harbaugh, who has adapted his offense to feature Justin Herbert.
Despite several offensive line injuries, the Chargers throw at the second-highest rate above expectation this year.
Herbert averages 42 dropbacks per game, and the Chargers face the pass-funnel Jaguars, whose opponents are passing 4.8% over expectation against them, the highest in the league.
The Jaguars defense ranks third in rush success rate and 28th in pass success rate.
They have faced 33 or more pass attempts in every game except against the Seahawks, who built a 14-point lead early in the third quarter.
With the injuries to the offensive line, Herbert relied on shorter, quick passes on Sunday.
57.5% of his passes were under 2.5 seconds, a season high for Herbert.
The Chargers are 3-point road favorites and have trailed at halftime in both road games played in the Eastern time zone despite being favorites, which increases the odds that Herbert will need to be aggressive throughout the game.