Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Chiefs facing the Broncos and the Ravens going up against the Browns.
Week 11 Best Bet Prediction: Chiefs at Broncos Under 44.5 Points
The Chiefs are coming out of their bye and facing the Broncos in Denver in a critical AFC West matchup.
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have an exceptional track record out of the bye, but a road tilt in Denver will be challenging for their offense.
According to Pro Football Reference, Denver’s defense has allowed the fewest yards per play (4.3), generated pressure at the third-highest rate (28.5%), tallied an NFL-high 46 sacks (14 more than the second-highest defense), and allowed the third-fewest points per game (17.3).
If there’s a fly in the ointment of their traditional defensive statistics, the Broncos are 26th in turnovers forced (8).
Their low rate for forcing turnovers can be viewed as a plus for betting the game’s under, though.
If the Broncos don’t force turnovers, they can’t instantly give the offense the ball in scoring position.
Unsurprisingly, Denver’s advanced defensive metrics are also superb.
Per Sumer Sports, the Broncos are second in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.11), second in EPA allowed per pass (-0.11), tied for fourth in EPA allowed per rush (-0.10), and first in success rate allowed (36.22%).
Even without Patrick Surtain in Week 9 and Week 10, they held the Texans to 268 total yards and 15 points and the Raiders to 188 and 7.
They’re still an impressive unit without the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award winner.
Of note, the scores have been low in Mahomes’s three starts against the Broncos since Sean Payton became Denver’s head coach in 2023.
The Chiefs scored 19 points against the Broncos at home in Week 6 in 2023, 9 against them in Denver in Week 8 in 2023, and 16 against them in Week 10 in Kansas City last year.
Furthermore, those games featured 33, 27, and 30 points between both teams.
On the other side, the Chiefs have an adequate defense, if not better.
They’re tied for 17th in yards allowed per play (5.4), fourth in scoring defense (17.7 points per game), tied for 12th in EPA allowed per play (-0.02), tied for seventh in EPA allowed per pass (-0.05), tied for 24th in EPA allowed per rush (0.02), and 19th in success rate allowed (44.97%).
Fortunately for Kansas City’s defense, their assignment against Bo Nix and almost certainly a J.K. Dobbins-less backfield (he’s seeking a second opinion on his foot injury) isn’t imposing.
The Broncos are 17th in scoring offense (23.5 points per game), tied for 17th in yards per play (5.3), tied for 13th in EPA per play (0.02), and 28th in success rate (41.05%).
Circling back to Nix, he’s having a wholly unimpressive sophomore campaign.
Among qualified quarterbacks this season, Nix is 18th in QBR (54.9), 27th in quarterback rating (85.7), and 22nd in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.74).
He’s not wowing the game charters at Pro Football Focus (PFF), either.
Instead, Nix is 18th in PFF’s passing grade among 33 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this year.
This matchup is unlikely to buck the trend of low-scoring slugfests in Mahomes’s last three meetings against the Broncos, and Nix is ill-equipped to push this into a shootout.
Week 11 Best Bet Prediction: Ravens Under 23.5 Points
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens hung an eye-popping 41 points on the Browns in a 41-17 victory against their AFC North rivals in Week 2.
Baltimore has scored 40, 41, 30, 20, 28, and 27 points in Jackson’s six starts this year, with the 28-point and 27-point efforts coming since he returned from his hamstring injury.
The initial inclination might be to take Baltimore’s over for 23.5 points, and the line is juiced more in that direction.
However, the Browns have a stout defense.
Cleveland’s defense is fifth in yards allowed per play (4.7), tied for eighth in sacks (27), 17th in scoring defense (23.4 points per game), tied for third in EPA allowed per play (-0.09), tied for 13th in EPA allowed per pass (-0.01), first in EPA allowed per rush (-0.19), and second in success rate allowed (37.1%).
While Cleveland is more giving against the pass, they’re lights out against the run.
Their dominance against the run could be especially impactful on Sunday.
According to RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth, the game will likely have extremely windy conditions, with sustained winds around 20 miles per hour (mph) and gusts in the 30-35 mph range.
Baltimore’s offense will be much less ferocious if the wind makes them one-dimensional.
Moreover, while Cleveland’s defensive numbers are mostly outstanding, they’re at their best at home.
According to StatHead, in four home games this year, the Browns have allowed only 54 points (13.5 per game), 4.12 yards per play, 4.37 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, recorded 8 sacks, and forced 3 turnovers.
The Browns have a dreadful offense that is unlikely to push the Ravens.
As a result, John Harbaugh and Todd Monken might put a premium on taking care of the football in the windy conditions at the expense of chasing explosive plays.
The game’s spread is large enough to suggest the Ravens can get a lead, take the air out of the ball, and leave a windy game with a low-scoring victory.