Davis Mills was the key to Week 10 DFS success, and Nico Collins was the beneficiary.
He registered a season-high 15 targets and 136 receiving yards against the Jaguars, leading all receivers in both yards and targets.
Eight games in Week 10 were decided by a single score, which translated into nine pass catchers reaching the 100 receiving yard mark.
Of the nine players to reach 100 yards, eight were wide receivers.
Trey McBride was the lone tight end.
In the opening month of the season, three running backs registered 100-yard receiving games, but Week 10 was the sixth straight week without one.
A change in offensive strategy is occurring as offenses continue to use a variety of formations, which has increased tight end target share while reducing wide receiver target share.
Week 10 saw a spike in tight end targets (24.4% of passes targeted tight ends) as a result of an increase in 12 and 13 personnel.
There is a lot of variance chasing most receiving yards, as there are more players who can potentially lead each week.
However, chasing volume in condensed target trees is critical as game state is least important for receivers.
NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Wide Receiver | Receiving Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zay Flowers | 140 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Malik Nabers | 167 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Tre Tucker | 145 | Washington Commanders |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | 170 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Emeka Egbuka | 163 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | George Pickens | 168 | Carolina Panthers |
| 7 | Devonta Smith | 183 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 8 | Tucker Kraft | 143 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 9 | Jaxson Smith-Njigba | 129 | Washington Commanders |
| 10 | Nico Collins | 136 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
Most Week 11 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): A.J. Brown (+3000)
Squeaky wheel, Lions cornerback injuries, and man-coverage heavy defense provide some hope for A.J. Brown truthers.
The Lions have the fourth-highest rate of man coverage this season.
That should help Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' elite wide receivers.
It’s rare for a wide receiver to so eloquently speak the truth, but Brown was correct that the way in which the Eagles are winning is unsustainable, especially come playoff time.
The down-to-down efficiency needs to improve.
The Eagles rank 20th in offensive success rate and are 28th in three and out percentage.
Terrion Arnold and Kerby Joseph have been ruled out, D.J. Reed and Amik Robertson are questionable with hamstring injuries, and the forecasted temperature at kickoff is 45 degrees.
If the Eagles offense can’t get going against a banged-up Lions defense that is traveling outdoors, they are unlikely to repeat as Super Bowl Champions.
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Week 11 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Quentin Johnston Ladder Bets
- Over 3.5 Receptions (-123)
- 6+ Receptions (+352)
- 8 + Receptions (+1400)
- Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Johnston is on the injury report, but he is likely to play against the Jaguars.
In the quarterback article, it was mentioned that Justin Herbert had a season high of passes thrown under 2.5 seconds last week, and 9 of Johnston’s 10 targets were on passes thrown in under 2.5 seconds.
Johnston had a season low of 3.4 air yards per target, but he had 30% of the team's targets, his second-highest of the season.
Improving Johnston’s usage outlook was the fact that he had a 32% target share on early downs in Week 10, which is well above his season long average of 19.4% and could be a signal that he will have an increased role with the offensive line deficiencies.
Johnston has lined up out wide on more than 85% of his snaps this season, and the Jaguars have been susceptible to targets to outside wide receivers.
They also lost Travis Hunter for the season, and Greg Newsome is on the injury report.
Opposing wide receivers are averaging 21.1 targets per game against the Jaguars, the fourth-highest rate in the league, providing an opportunity for Johnston to repeat last week’s success.