Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Patriots against the Bengals and the Cardinals facing off against the Jaguars.
Week 12 Best Bet Prediction: New England Patriots Over 28.5 Points (-113)
First of all, line shopping is critical for this contest as there are moving pieces, namely the seemingly probable return of Joe Burrow.
At the time of writing, over 28.5 for the Patriots at -113 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a relative bargain compared to the -125 listing for over 28.5 points at Fanatics Sportsbook or the eye-popping team total of 30.5 points at Caesars Sportsbook.
Oddsjam is a great way to find the best lines for every betting market!
Still, Burrow’s possible return could be optimal for the Patriots to keep their foot to the floor on the accelerator against Cincinnati’s pitiful defense.
The Bengals are dreadful on defense by every imaginable measure.
According to Pro Football Reference, Cincinnati’s defense is tied for the most yards allowed per play (6.3), has generated pressure at the fourth-lowest rate (17.3%), and has permitted the most points per game (33.4) this season.
They’ve allowed six of 10 opponents to eclipse 28.5 points this year, with a median of 32.5 points allowed.
The advanced metrics are also putrid.
Per Sumer Sports, the Bengals have allowed the most expected points added (EPA) per play (0.21) by a wide margin, the most EPA allowed per pass (0.27), tied for the second-most EPA allowed per rush (0.11), and the highest success rate (50.45%) allowed.
The Patriots can likely pick whatever path they want to move the football on Sunday.
New England has a potent offense capable of fully exploiting Cincinnati’s defensive ineptitude.
The Patriots are tied for sixth in yards per play (5.8), seventh in scoring offense (26.5 points per game), tied for fifth in EPA per play (0.10), and 14th in success rate (44.21%).
Drake Maye is the triggerman, and the second-year pro is playing at an MVP level.
He’s first in total EPA and third in EPA per play among quarterbacks with more than 100 plays.
Maye should also get his field-stretching wideout, Kayshon Boutte, back from a two-week absence since the young wideout logged a full practice on Thursday.
While DJ Turner has succeeded in blanketing No. 1 wideouts this year, Stefon Diggs might avoid his clutches more often than other No. 1 wide receivers because of his deployment.
According to the Fantasy Points Data suite, Diggs has a 47.2% slot rate this year and a 52.2% slot rate in his last five games.
Meanwhile, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Turner has played only 22 snaps in the slot versus 598 on the outside, with a high of just 6 snaps aligned in the slot in Week 9.
TreVeyon Henderson has taken advantage of an expanded role in New England’s backfield lately, ripping off 150 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns against the Buccaneers in Week 10 and 93 and 3 against the Jets in Week 11.
He’s had at least 75 scrimmage yards in four straight games, and Rhamondre Stevenson could return this week to provide the backfield with a bigger-bodied complement to punish Cincinnati’s porous run defense.
Since Week 7, the Bengals have allowed an NFL-high 198.8 rushing yards per game and 6.52 yards per carry.
So, even if the Patriots dominate the Bengals and hold a commanding lead late, they shouldn’t have trouble marching the ball down the field while salting the game away.
Whether the game shoots out or the Patriots handle their business as a favorite, they can surpass 28.5 points against Cincinnati’s barely-there defense.
Week 12 Best Bet Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Over 22.5 Points (-115)
Jacoby Brissett has provided the Cardinals with a jolt as the starting quarterback.
In his five starts, they’ve scored 27, 23, 27, 22, and 22 points.
The Cardinals are averaging 24.2 points per game, with a median of 23 in Brissett’s starts.
Sadly, they’ve scored precisely 22 points in back-to-back games, which wouldn’t cut it for their over against the Jaguars.
Interestingly, the 49ers were a favorable matchup in Week 11, making Arizona’s 22 points a slight disappointment.
Conversely, the Seahawks were a brutal matchup in Week 10, making the Cardinals’ 22 points a more palatable total.
Jacksonville’s defense falls somewhere in between.
The Jaguars bullied the Chargers in Week 11, holding them to just 6 points in Jacksonville.
The stout defensive showing should be taken with a grain of salt.
The Chargers had the unenviable task of traveling across the country and playing in the 1:00 p.m. ET window.
Moreover, Los Angeles’s offensive line is a makeshift unit.
Justin Herbert and the offense have played markedly worse without Joe Alt.
Jacksonville’s stellar defensive effort last week comes on the heels of coughing up 36 points to the Texans in Week 10 and 29 to the Raiders in Week 9.
They’ve permitted more than 22.5 points in four of their last six games.
The Jaguars rank a respectable tied for 12th in scoring defense, allowing 22.6 points per game.
Yet, they’ve benefited immensely from forcing 18 turnovers, tying for the second most in the NFL.
According to PFF, Brissett is tied for the 12th-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (2.7%) among 35 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this year.
He’s unlikely to recklessly care for the football, making Jacksonville’s defense’s job more difficult this week.
The Cardinals have a below-average rushing attack, ranking tied for 24th in EPA per rush (-0.06).
However, Arizona likely won’t opt to run often against Jacksonville’s pass-funnel defense.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Jaguars have faced an NFL-high 65% situation-neutral pass rate this year.
Furthermore, they’ve faced a 66% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 7.
The Cardinals will likely lean on Brissett’s arm and Trey McBride in this contest.
Fortunately for Arizona, McBride is a baller, and the Jaguars haven’t had answers for tight ends.
McBride has tallied a 25.8% air yards share, 25.8% target share, 0.26 targets per route run, 42 receptions, 443 receiving yards, 2.12 yards per route run, and 6 receiving touchdowns in Brissett’s starts.
The Jaguars are tied for the fourth-most receptions per game (6.40) allowed to tight ends and have ceded the third-most receiving yards per game (69.4) to them this year.
Jacksonville won’t need to twist Brissett’s arm to pepper McBride with targets, and their susceptibility against tight ends should help the Cardinals move the ball and score points.
Arizona should clear 22.5 points for the fourth time with Brissett starting at quarterback this year.