Volume continues to be king for pass catchers.
Michael Wilson benefited from 18 targets to produce the best receiving game to date, racking up 185 receiving yards.
Eight pass catchers reached 100 yards receiving, including six wide receivers, one running back, and one tight end.
Trey McBride became the first tight end to register two 100-yard receiving games in a row this season.
He has benefited from the Cardinals allowing more than 40 points in back-to-back games.
Teams that fall behind early and continue to give up points don’t have the luxury to run the ball, which benefits the pass catchers.
Tight end usage continued to remain higher than in previous years, which is a trend likely to continue as teams increase heavy personnel usage.
There is a lot of variance chasing most receiving yards since there are more players who can potentially lead each week.
However, chasing volume in condensed target trees is critical as game state is least important for receivers.
NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Wide Receiver | Receiving Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zay Flowers | 140 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Malik Nabers | 167 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Tre Tucker | 145 | Washington Commanders |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | 170 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Emeka Egbuka | 163 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | George Pickens | 168 | Carolina Panthers |
| 7 | Devonta Smith | 183 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 8 | Tucker Kraft | 143 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 9 | Jaxson Smith-Njigba | 129 | Washington Commanders |
| 10 | Nico Collins | 136 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 11 | Michael Wilson | 185 | San Francisco 49ers |
Most Week 12 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): Amon-Ra St. Brown
While Jameson Williams has stolen the attention since Dan Campbell has taken over play calling duties, St. Brown’s peripherals remain incredible.
St. Brown has drawn a target on over 30% of his routes in 90% of his starts this season, including outtargeting Williams by a 20-14 margin over the past two weeks.
Also working in St Brown’s favor is the absence of Sam LaPorta.
In 2024, St Brown averaged 3.31 yards per route when LaPorta was not on the field, an increase of over a yard per route.
He saw an 8% increase in target share.
The Lions are playing at home indoors, which has provided Jared Goff with favorable passing splits over his career.
Most importantly, St. Brown faces an injured Giants secondary that rolls out man coverage at the league’s second-highest rate.
St. Brown has been targeted on 40.5% of his routes against man coverage this season.
The Lions are coming off an embarrassing offensive performance on national television, and this is an ideal matchup for St. Brown and the Lions to put up a crooked number on the New York Giants.
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Week 12 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Adonai Mitchell Bets
- Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- 60+ Receiving Yards (+376)
- Anytime Touchdown (+390)
Those who can read the Sharp Football Slack chats are aware of the fact that I was bullish on Adonai Mitchell last week.
Mitchell drew 6 targets and was targeted on 28.6% of his routes a week after being traded to a new team.
The results did not match, as Mitchell managed a single reception and 10 yards.
The Jets are turning to Tyrod Taylor this week, which provides a significant bump to the pass catchers.
In his only start this season, Taylor had 46 dropbacks including 21 dropbacks and 16 pass attempts in the first half.
In the past two games, Justin Fields has averaged 9.5 dropbacks and 6.5 pass attempts in the first half.
As mentioned in Rich Hribar’s Worksheet, in his short NFL career, Mitchell has been targeted on a league-high 42% of his routes against man coverage dating back to last year.
Mitchell may provide some volatility in turning his targets into production, but the underlying metrics are there for this young wide receiver.