Running backs are averaging 4.4 yards per carry, and teams are averaging 21.3 running back carries per game, which is right in line with last season.
Winning teams average 24.4 carries and 4.5 yards per carry compared to losing teams averaging 18.1 carries, a clear signal that running back usage is game-script dependent.
De’Von Achane took the honors as the weekly leading rusher with 120 rushing yards, the lowest weekly leading total of the season.
Only four running backs reached 100 rushing yards in Week 11, including two who were on losing teams, breaking a streak of 17 straight 100-yard rushers who were on the winning team.
In chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, favorites or short dogs who can win should be on the list of running backs to target.
There are three teams favored by double-digit points this week, but two are teams in which the lead running back has less than 60% of the running back carries on the season, which adds volatility to predicting a spike week.
NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Running Back | Rushing Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 169 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor | 165 | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | David Montgomery | 151 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Ashton Jeanty | 138 | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Rico Dowdle | 206 | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rico Dowdle | 183 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 7 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 136 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 8 | James Cook | 216 | Carolina Panthers |
| 9 | Kyle Monangai | 176 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 10 | Jonathan Taylor | 244 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 11 | De'Von Achane | 120 | Washington Commanders |
Most Week 12 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): TreVeyon Henderson
Disclaimer: If Kenneth Walker is ruled out before Sunday morning, pivot to Zach Charbonnet.
Cases can easily be made for Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry, but let's focus on a market that potentially overreacted to the return of Rhamondre Stevenson.
Henderson has 5 touchdowns in his two starts without Stevenson and averaged more than 100 yards per game against two top-10 rush defenses.
Stevenson’s role and health are unknown, which provides a bit of an opportunity to capitalize on the explosive rookie.
The Bengal rush defense has allowed running backs to gain more than 100 rushing yards in nine straight games.
More importantly, the Bengals rank 29th in explosive rush rate allowed over the past four weeks and have allowed a 35-yard running back rush in each of the last four games.
Henderson had a 69-yard explosive and a 55-yard explosive against the Buccaneers, and now faces a defense that has given up running back production all season.
Even if Henderson doesn’t reach 20 carries, his style allows him to gain yardage in chunks.
The Patriots are touchdown favorites, and the Bengals are without a key offensive weapon, providing a great game script for rushing volume.
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Week 12 Running Back Longshot Bet: Jonathan Taylor Same Game Parlay (+365)
- Under 91.5 Rushing Yards
- 4+ Receptions
- 25+ Receiving Yards
Steve Spagnuolo is great at taking away the opposition's best threat.
For example, Saquon Barkley averaged 2.3 yards per carry in the Super Bowl last February.
Taylor has accumulated 712 rushing yards in the second half of games this season, which coincides with the Colts leading and having a winning record.
However, the Colts are road underdogs.
Daniel Jones has completed 93.8% of attempts to Taylor this season, and Taylor has recorded at least 2 receptions in every game this year.
The Colts have benefited from creating early leads this season.
Should they play from behind, Taylor’s usage in the passing game is likely to increase, and his rushing volume is likely to decrease.
If using this as a same game parlay, stacking Chiefs offensive success on the other side would be wise, as this is based on the Colts playing from a negative game script.