Week 12 was a positive one for the receivers as nine pass catchers eclipsed 100 receiving yards.
Volume continues to be king even for receivers.
All nine of the 100-yard receivers had at least 7 receptions.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba continued his historic season as he turned 8 receptions into 167 receiving yards to become the first receiver to win the weekly receiving title for a second time this season.
Decreased wide receiver target share remains a consistent theme for the season, with wide receivers targeted on 53.8% of passes in Week 12.
Injuries are a part of the discussion, but there is an offensive shift that continues to take place as teams look for ways to influence defensive personnel.
There is a lot of variance chasing most receiving yards since there are more players who can potentially lead each week, but chasing volume in condensed target trees is critical, as game state is least important for receivers.
NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Wide Receiver | Receiving Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zay Flowers | 140 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Malik Nabers | 167 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Tre Tucker | 145 | Washington Commanders |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | 170 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Emeka Egbuka | 163 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | George Pickens | 168 | Carolina Panthers |
| 7 | Devonta Smith | 183 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 8 | Tucker Kraft | 143 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 9 | Jaxson Smith-Njigba | 129 | Washington Commanders |
| 10 | Nico Collins | 136 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 11 | Michael Wilson | 185 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 12 | Jaxson Smith-Njigba | 167 | Tennessee Titans |
Most Week 13 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): Jaylen Waddle (+1000)
Waddle’s box scores over the past two games aren’t overly impressive.
He has seven targets in each game and is averaging 68 yards, but the Dolphins have only attempted 41 passes in those two games.
Waddle has had more than a third of the Dolphins' targets in consecutive games and 78% of the air yards.
The ingredients for a spike week are there, except for the passing volume, which is less sticky week to week.
The Saints are decent against the run, ranking 11th in DVOA.
They rank 24th against the pass, which creates a slight pass-funnel defense.
More importantly, the Saints are somewhat frisky on offense, and it’s in the range of outcomes that they push the Dolphins to remain aggressive.
The Saints have scored a touchdown on 34.5% of their red zone possessions, dead last by a large margin.
Only 5 teams have reached the end zone on fewer than 50% of their red zone possessions.
A little positive touchdown regression could go a long way in pushing this game state and allowing Waddle to maximize his incredible underlying usage.
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Week 13 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Jayden Higgins Bets
- Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- 60+ Receiving Yards (+275)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+300)
- SGP 60+ Receiving Yards and Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+750)
The theory of rational coaching is put to the test with the 34th overall pick, as the Texans play a pivotal matchup against the division-leading Colts.
Higgins has only run a route on 52% of the Texans' dropbacks, but he’s trended upward since the bye, running a route on 59% of dropbacks.
Higgins has had 7 or more targets in four of the last five games, and the Texans offense is trending in a more positive direction than earlier in the season.
What makes Higgins appealing is that it is highly likely that Nico Collins will be shadowed by Sauce Gardner in this matchup.
It is easy to envision a situation similar to that of the Jets, where secondary receivers are relied upon as teams throw away from Gardner.
Higgins is averaging over 12 air yards per target but had only a single reception of more than 20 yards on 24 targets from Davis Mills.
In the opening 4 weeks of the season, C.J. Stroud targeted Higgins 6 times with 3 completions of over 20 yards.
The return of Stroud and increased usage and possible negative game script are a recipe for Higgins to have his most productive game this year.
Higgins is especially a threat in the end zone as he is tied with Collins for the most receiving touchdowns and has 9 end zone targets compared to Collins’ 10, with a much smaller route share.