The article hit on Bo Nix as a +2200 longshot last week, thanks to overtime, and both Tyler Shough ladders with some onside kick recovery magic.
The layout for Nix was clear, and the game delivered as the Broncos and Commanders combined for 95 passes, which was in the range of outcomes and made Nix worth chasing on a short slate.
Gamestate continues to be the most important storyline for peak passing outcomes.
Outlier performances come from games that go right down to the wire or teams that fall behind early.
Through 13 weeks of the season, eight of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and four quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.
Jared Goff and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns was the outlier.
Game state continues to be very important as teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.
This week features a slate with larger spreads, which could limit the passing ceiling for some of the elite quarterbacks.
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 37-40 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 389 | San Francisco 49ers | 23-26 |
| 6 | Mac Jones | 347 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 19-30 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | 420 | Indianapolis Colts | 24-38 |
| 8 | Jordan Love | 360 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-25 |
| 9 | Joe Flacco | 470 | Chicago Bears | 42-47 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | 320 | Washington Commanders | 44-22 |
| 11 | Jacoby Brissett | 452 | San Francisco 49ers | 22-41 |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | 366 | Detroit Lions | 27-34 |
| 13 | Bo Nix | 321 | Washington Commanders | 27-26 |
Most Week 14 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Jacoby Brissett (+700)
The Cardinals made their feelings well known on Monday when stating that Kyler Murray is not coming off injured reserve anytime soon.
Brissett hasn’t been great, but he’s averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt.
Combined with his passing volume, that has quietly added up to three consecutive 300-yard passing games.
Brissett leads the league with 43 pass attempts per game since taking over the starting role.
Joe Flacco is the only other quarterback averaging more than 37 pass attempts per game since Week 6.
The Rams are facing an average of 38.2 pass attempts per game.
As 8.5-point underdogs, it is realistic that Brissett and the Cardinals are chasing this game and forced to pass early and often.
The Rams are averaging 27.8 points per game, and the Cardinals are 28th in defensive success rate.
Despite some costly turnovers, the Rams moved the ball at will last week, averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt as Matthew Stafford looks to continue his MVP bid.
As mentioned above, game state is very critical to chasing ceiling quarterback performances, and the Rams defense is coming off their worst performance of the season, allowing 10.3 yards per pass attempt to Bryce Young.
Similar to Jameis Winston last year, it isn’t always pretty, but with a struggling run game and negative game scripts, the game is pushed to a heavy passing attack.
This week is no different for Brissett as the Rams are likely to bounce back after last week.
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Week 14 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Daniel Jones Passing Ladders
- 34+ Pass Attempts (+128)
- 38+ Pass Attempts (+315)
- 40+ Pass Attempts (+491)
The Colts have a +71 first-half point differential, which is the fourth-best in the league.
Jumping out to early leads has limited Jones' passing volume in the back half of games.
The Colts are likely to be pushed this week in Jacksonville, and a more competitive game state against a pass funnel defense pushes more volume to Jones in the passing game.
Jones is playing through a fractured fibula.
It is unlikely that he will scramble on dropbacks, and throwaways add to the passing attempt total the same way completions do.
The Jaguars face 37.9 pass attempts per game, the third highest in the league, which is another signal that Jones could see a spike in passing volume.
A close division matchup against a pass funnel provides the Colts an opportunity to lean on Jones and the passing attack on Sunday.