The Jameson Williams truthers are vocal after a breakout performance in the absence of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
Williams did not break the mold of the ceiling wide receiver as he recorded 37% of the Lions' targets, hauling in 7 catches for 144 yards.
Before Week 13, Williams had been targeted on 14.6 of his routes, but an injury to St. Brown on the first drive changed everything.
Williams, much like Michael Wilson a couple of weeks prior, had increased usage due to injuries, leading to a spike in usage.
Wilson’s was easier to identify because the injury did not occur midgame, but nonetheless, target trees are very fluid based on player availability.
Volume continues to be king even for receivers, as all six of the 100-yard receivers in Week 13 had at least 7 receptions.
Decreased wide receiver target share remains a consistent theme for the season.
Wide receivers were targeted on 53.5% of passes in Week 13, a number that is consistently trending downward in 2025.
Teams are targeting tight ends an average of 7.27 passes per game, which is up from 2024.
Tight ends are averaging 22.4% of targets league-wide.
There is a lot of variance chasing most receiving yards since there are more players who can potentially lead each week, so chasing volume in condensed target trees is critical.
NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Wide Receiver | Receiving Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zay Flowers | 140 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Malik Nabers | 167 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Tre Tucker | 145 | Washington Commanders |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | 170 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Emeka Egbuka | 163 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | George Pickens | 168 | Carolina Panthers |
| 7 | Devonta Smith | 183 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 8 | Tucker Kraft | 143 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 9 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 129 | Washington Commanders |
| 10 | Nico Collins | 136 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 11 | Michael Wilson | 185 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 12 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 167 | Tennessee Titans |
| 13 | Jameson Williams | 144 | Green Bay Packers |
Most Week 14 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): Emeka Egbuka (+3000)
Volatility is always a concern, but underlying usage allows us to predict which wide receivers have the ability to create spike weeks.
Adonai Mitchell was a great example of this as he managed to haul in a couple of deep passes and led all wide receivers in receiving on Sunday.
Mitchell was drawing targets, and those targets were deep down the field.
He has now been targeted on 27.8% of his routes, accounting for 59.9% of the Jets' air yards.
Why am I bringing this up now?
Egbuka is riding the wrong side of variance, but the underlying metrics are solid for the rookie wide receiver.
In Egbuka’s last five games, he’s accounted for 31.1% of the Buccaneers’ targets and 44.6% of the air yards, but he has one game over 45 receiving yards.
Part of Egbuka’s struggles can be attributed to the fact that Baker Mayfield is clearly battling through multiple injuries.
27.7% of Egbuka’s targets over that span have been off target.
The New Orleans Saints are 26th in pressure rate and 24th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, which could spark the Mayfield/Egbuka connection from earlier in the season.
The Saints face the second fewest pass attempts per game, as they have trailed at halftime in 10 of their 12 games.
The Saints had 51 pass attempts in the first meeting against the Buccaneers, despite only trailing 7-3 at halftime.
The Buccaneers are a pass funnel.
Should the Saints generate some early production, there is potential for the Buccaneers to remain pass heavy.
Egbuka exceeded expectations early in the season, but it was around this time last season when Brian Thomas broke out as a rookie.
Rookie receivers tend to improve later in the season, and this seems like an ideal spot to bet on Egbuka, who is due for improved results.
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Week 14 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Tyler Warren Bets
- Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- 70+ receiving Yards (+210)
- 7+ Receptions (+250)
- Anytime Touchdown (+155)
- 2+ Touchdowns (+1200)
Another rookie pass catcher who has been relatively quiet since the opening part of the season.
Warren has had a solid rookie campaign for a tight end, registering at least 3 receptions in every game this year.
Warren has been a victim of the Colts’ overall success this year.
Daniel Jones has attempted 35 or more passes once all season long.
Jones is currently playing with a fractured fibula, which reduces the likelihood he will scramble, inherently increasing passing volume.
The Colts are also traveling to Jacksonville, which has not been kind to them in recent years.
The Jaguars are a pass funnel, but specifically to perimeter receivers and tight ends.
Opponents target tight ends on 24.8% of passes, and the Jaguars allow 69.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
With it unlikely that the Colts are just leaning on Jonathan Taylor in the second half, Warren could benefit from a closer game state.
Warren has relied on first half production.
60% of his targets and receptions have occurred in the first half of games.
The Colts are 1.5-point favorites traveling to a stadium where they struggle.
Should the Colts fall behind, Warren could benefit from a negative game script in a good matchup for tight ends.