Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Giants against the Commanders and the Cardinals facing the Texans.
Week 15 Best Bet Prediction: New York Giants Over 24.5 Points (+102)
The Giants are coming out of their Week 14 bye and are greeted by a cushy matchup.
The Commanders have a putrid defense by every measure.
According to Sumer Sports, the Commanders are tied for 30th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (0.14), 32nd in EPA allowed per pass (0.23), 25th in EPA allowed per rush (0.02), and 28th in success rate allowed (46.89%).
The traditional measures aren’t any friendlier.
Per Pro Football Reference, the Commanders are 31st in yards allowed per play (6.2), 32nd in net yards allowed per pass (7.5), tied for 26th in yards allowed per rush (4.7), tied for 30th in turnovers forced (7), 23rd in pressure rate (19.5%), and 28th in scoring defense (27.5 points per game).
Moreover, as Rich Hribar pointed out in The Worksheet, Washington has allowed the most yards per play (6.3) on early downs.
They’re 30th in yards allowed per game (382.5) and points allowed per drive (2.69).
The Commanders can’t stop anyone, and their propensity to cough up yards on early downs should keep Jaxson Dart out of unfavorable third-down situations.
Speaking of Dart, he’s having a stellar rookie season.
Among 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this year, Dart is 15th in EPA per play (0.07).
Big Blue’s total offensive marks are all over the place, with some positives and some negatives.
On the plus side, they’re tied for 13th in EPA per play.
However, the G-Men are only 26th in success rate (41.29%) and 23rd in scoring offense (21.5 points per game).
In addition, they sit midpack in yards per play (5.3), tying for 15th.
The matchup with the Commanders, and being recharged from the bye, should bring out the best in the Giants.
Washington has allowed back-to-back opponents to exceed 24.5 points, and they’ve allowed seven of their last eight opponents to clear that threshold.
The only outlier was when the Dolphins scored just 16 points.
However, that game comes with the caveat that it was played abroad.
Therefore, the Commanders have allowed seven consecutive opponents in games in the US to clear 24.5 points.
The Giants will need to keep their foot mashed down on the accelerator since their defense is also lousy.
They are 29th in EPA allowed per play (0.12), 27th in success rate allowed (46.63%), tied for 28th in yards allowed per play (6.0), 21st in pressure rate (20.8%), and 30th in scoring defense (28.2 points per game).
This game has shootout written all over it, and the Giants should hold up their end of the bargain by surpassing 24.5 points.
Week 15 Best Bet Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Under 16.5 Points (-120)
The Jacoby Brissett experience has been fun for fantasy football, but the Cardinals are hardly an offensive juggernaut.
Brissett also hasn’t been a world-beater.
The veteran signal-caller is tied for 20th in EPA per play (0.02) among 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this year.
Brissett has piled up garbage-time yardage, but the offense is below average.
The Cardinals are tied for 20th in EPA per play (-0.02), tied for 15th in EPA per pass (0.01), tied for 26th in EPA per rush (-0.08), 15th in success rate (43.51%), tied for 22nd in yards per play (5.1), tied for 25th in net yards per pass attempt (5.6), 17th in yards per rush (4.3), 16th in turnovers (16), and 21st in scoring offense (21.7 points per game).
Sadly for the Cardinals, starting left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. is already ruled out for this week.
Among 65 offensive tackles with at least 400 snaps this year, Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks Johnson 15th in their pass-blocking grade and 21st in their run-blocking grade.
Undrafted rookie Josh Fryar is the next person up and a substantial downgrade from Johnson.
The timing of an injury on the offensive line couldn’t be worse for Arizona’s one-dimensional offense.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Cardinals are first in pass rate over expectations (8.8% PROE) this season, and they have a 9.4% PROE with Brissett as the starter.
Meanwhile, the Texans have an elite defense.
Houston is first in EPA allowed per play (-0.15), first in EPA allowed per pass (-0.21), tied for 11th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.05), third in success rate allowed (37.67%), tied for third in yards allowed per play (4.6), tied for first in net yards allowed per pass (5.0), tied for 11th in yards allowed per rush (4.1), fourth in turnovers forced (22), tied for sixth in sacks (36), and first in scoring defense (16.0 points per game).
If the Texans are somewhat susceptible anywhere, it’s against the run, and the Cardinals don’t have the horses to exploit that.
Instead, Arizona’s league-high PROE will run into the league-best pass defense.
Arizona’s scoring has also hit the skids.
They’ve scored precisely 17 points in back-to-back games, their lowest total in Brissett’s starts.
A 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff in Houston against their elite defense isn’t the time for the Cardinals to turn it around, and they should fall short of 16.5 points this week.