Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Saints traveling to face the Seahawks and the Texans in a divisional matchup against the Jaguars.
Week 3 Prediction: New Orleans Saints Team Total Under 16.5 Points
The Saints have been plucky this season.
The expectations for them were low this year, but they have pushed the Cardinals and 49ers to the limit.
New Orleans lost to Arizona by 7 points in Week 1 and to the 49ers by 5 points in Week 2.
Still, even though they’ve played hard, they haven’t been particularly good on offense.
Instead, according to Sumer Sports, the Saints are 24th in expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.06) and 20th in success rate (42.65%).
Traditional stats aren’t kind to their offense, either.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Saints are 27th in yards per play (4.6) and 26th in points per game (17.0).
New Orleans’ underwhelming offensive numbers are even worse when considering they were indoors and at home for both contests.
Spencer Rattler has started eight games in his young career, and he’s faceplanted on the road.
Rattler led the Saints to 8 points against the Chargers in Los Angeles in Week 8 of last year, 0 points against the Packers in Green Bay in Week 16 of 2024, and 19 points against the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay in Week 18 of last season.
According to StatHead, Rattler has completed only 59.9% of 287 pass attempts in road starts for 1,603 passing yards (200.4), 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 4.27 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, and a 75.0 quarterback rating, with 26 sacks (8.31% sack rate).
Rattler will have his hands full against the Seahawks in Seattle.
The Seahawks are 12th in EPA per play allowed (-0.04) and 10th in success rate allowed (41.2%) this season.
Seattle is tied for the 10th-fewest yards per play allowed (5.0), tied for third in turnovers forced (4), and tied for the seventh-fewest points allowed per game (17.0).
Moreover, as Anthony Prohaska from Cover 1 pointed out on X (formerly Twitter, but forever Twitter in my heart), the Seahawks lead the NFL in pressure rate (49.4%) while blitzing at the second-lowest rate (13%).
Interestingly, Pro Football Reference lists them as having the sixth-lowest blitz rate, but they actually have a lower rate at 10.3%.
The Seahawks have allowed precisely 17 points in each game this year, facing the 49ers at home in Week 1 and the Steelers across the country in Pittsburgh in the 1:00 p.m. ET window.
Seattle’s defense will have an easier assignment in front of the 12’s and should hold the Saints under 17 points for the second time in New Orleans’ first three games this season.
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Week 3 Prediction: Houston Texans Team Total Under 22.5 Points
C.J. Stroud took the NFL by storm, leading the Texans to the playoffs, a Wild Card Round victory against the Browns, and capturing the Associated Press and Pro Football Writers of America Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.
During his offseason media tour after his brilliant rookie campaign, he even went as far as to declare himself a top-five quarterback in the NFL.
Stroud has found that life comes at you fast in two subsequent seasons, and his sophomore slump has extended into third-year woes.
Among 35 quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks this season, Stroud has the third-lowest passing grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF).
He’s also 25th in quarterback rating (85.0) and 31st in ESPN’s QBR (34.8) among 34 qualified quarterbacks.
The ugly numbers don’t end there.
Per Sumer Sports, Stroud is tied for 31st in EPA per play (-0.07) among 41 quarterbacks who’ve appeared in a game this season.
Unsurprisingly, as Stroud has struggled, Houston’s offense has as well.
The Texans are 26th in EPA per play (-0.09), 28th in success rate (37.86%), tied for 15th in yards per play (5.2), and dead last in scoring offense (14.0 points per game).
Houston’s offense is a tire fire, and they don’t have a favorable matchup this week.
The Jaguars have played eye-catching defense, albeit against the Panthers in Week 1 and against a Joe Burrow-injury-shortened-start Bengals squad in Week 2.
Still, Jacksonville is tied for third in EPA per play allowed (-0.13), seventh in success rate allowed (38.89%), tied for eighth in yards per play allowed (4.8), first in turnovers forced (6), and tied for 14th in scoring defense (20.5 points per game allowed).
Circling back to Stroud, he has some splits that are suboptimal for Houston’s scoring outlook.
In 11 games outdoors in his career, he’s completed only 58.8% of his 321 pass attempts for 192.2 passing yards per game and an 83.8 quarterback rating.
His road numbers since last year are also ugly.
According to StatHead, in 21 road contests since the start of last season, Stroud has averaged 221.4 passing yards per game with 22 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 5.48 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, a 9.68% sack rate, and an 87.4 quarterback rating.
Obviously, some of his road games overlap with his outdoor games since all of his outdoor games are road contests.
Nevertheless, neither split is kind to Stroud.
Sticking with outdoor numbers, the Texans have scored just 155 points (22.1 per game) in seven outdoor contests since last season.
Houston scored fewer than 22.5 points in four of those seven games, all losses.
They scored 41, 23, and 23 points in the other three games in the sample, all of which were victories.
The Jaguars are favored at home, and the Texans are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 2.
Houston hasn’t even reached 20 points in a game this year.
I don’t expect them to right the ship and clear 22.5 points in a critical AFC South showdown on the road as an underdog this week.