The good news is that there was league-wide improvement in terms of passing from the Week 3 debacle.
Teams averaged 10 more yards passing per game, and EPA per dropback rebounded significantly.
Looking back to a year ago, teams finished the season with 217 passing yards per game, but through the opening four weeks averaged 202 yards per game.
There is hope for improved passing numbers the rest of the year.
As bad as things have looked, passing numbers are up from the opening four weeks of last season.
Matthew Stafford took the weekly honors of most passing yards against the Indianapolis Colts last week.
As mentioned last week, game state is important, and the Colts-Rams game never had a team lead by more than one score and was tied at the 2-minute warning in the fourth quarter.
The game that featured the weekly passing leader has had a lead change in the final two minutes of the game in all four weeks.
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 40-37 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
Most Week 5 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Josh Allen (+1700)
After opening the season with an incredible comeback, the Buffalo Bills have been on cruise control facing the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints.
Allen had 46 pass attempts in the opening week of the season and has averaged 25 pass attempts in the last three weeks.
Including the opening week of the season, Allen has averaged 14.25 pass attempts in the first half, down from 17 last season, 19 in the previous two seasons, and 25.6 in Brian Daboll‘s final season as the offensive coordinator.
Sean McDermott and Joe Brady are content to drive their Ferrari well below the speed limit unless it is absolutely necessary to do otherwise.
Allen’s odds are good because the Bills simply don’t play aggressively unless there is a need to.
When Allen does throw, he leads the league in EPA per play, and the Patriots pass defense ranks 27th in EPA per dropback allowed.
What makes the Patriots pass defense more concerning is the fact that they have played Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers, and Bryce Young, not exactly a murderer's row of opposing quarterbacks.
The same can be said regarding the Bills defense, which has invited teams to run on the ball against them.
Outside of Lamar Jackson, the Bills pass defense has not been tested as they have faced Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, and Spencer Rattler.
McDermott and Mike Vrabel would both enjoy playing in a low-scoring defensive battle.
However, should this become a game in which both offenses increase their pass rate, there is an avenue for Allen to lead all quarterbacks in passing yards.
The line is based on perceived pass volume, not the quarterback himself.
Allen just needs something to cause him to throw more often.
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Week 5 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Justin Fields Ladders
- Over 185.5 Passing Yards (-112)
- 210+ Passing Yards (+154)
- 240+ Passing Yards (+310)
- 280+ Passing Yards (+810)
Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis are averaging -0.43 and -0.42 EPA/rush, respectively.
Removing the temptation to hand the ball to Allen improves the efficiency of the Jets offense, which ranks seventh in offensive success rate.
The Jets offense is on the wrong side of turnover variance, turning the ball over 7 times, and the defense has not created a turnover.
Removing the inefficient runs and some positive turnover regression should provide Fields with an opportunity to have his highest passing volume game of the season.
Fields has averaged 9.9 and 8.4 yards per attempt against the Steelers and Dolphins this season, and the Cowboys rank 32nd in EPA per dropback allowed.
Dak Prescott has put his 2024 season behind him and has opened the season at an MVP level, which provides the opportunity for a shootout between two teams with struggling pass defenses.