Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Buffalo Bills facing the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Week 6 Best Bet Prediction: Seattle Seahawks Team Total Over 23.5 Points (-115)
The Seahawks hit a home run by trading Geno Smith to the Raiders to open their quarterback gig for Sam Darnold.
After a career year last season, Darnold is eradicating any misguided concerns about him turning into a pumpkin.
Instead, Darnold is thriving.
According to Sumer Sports, Darnold is fourth in total Expected Points Added (EPA) and tied for first in EPA per play (0.32) among quarterbacks with more than 50 plays.
Film-based analysis of Darnold is also flattering.
Among 34 quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks this year, Darnold has the second-highest passing grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF).
He’s also tied for seventh in big-time throw rate (5.6 BTT%) and has the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (1.3 TWP%).
Darnold’s excellence in taking care of the football is critical in this week’s cross-country matchup against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville is fourth in EPA per pass (-0.12) allowed this year.
However, their excellence in that category is fueled by an NFL-high 10 interceptions.
The Jaguars have also struggled to sack the quarterback, tying for the fifth-fewest sacks (7) this year.
Jacksonville has also performed poorly against the rush, allowing the eighth-most EPA per rush (0.04).
Despite Jacksonville’s leakiness against the rush, its defense has been a pass-funnel.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Jaguars have faced the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (66%) through five weeks.
Thus, if Darnold takes care of the ball, he should enjoy success through the air if Jacksonville’s defense’s pass-funnel tendencies lead to Klint Kubiak calling more passing plays this week.
Yet, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet also have a favorable matchup on the ground.
The Seahawks have bested 23.5 points in three of five games this year.
One of the times they fell short was a 23-point effort on a short week, on the road, and against a division opponent in Arizona on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, which is forgivable.
Moreover, they scored 31 points against the Steelers in the 1:00 p.m. ET window in Week 2, assuaging some concerns about the time zone.
Finally, the Jaguars are on a slightly short week after winning a Monday Night Football shootout against the Chiefs.
As a result, I like Seattle’s odds for eclipsing 23.5 points against the Jaguars.
Week 6 Best Bet Prediction: Buffalo Bills Team Total Over 27.5 Points (-113)
The Bills suffered their first defeat of the 2025 season, and they’ll attempt to bounce back against a Falcons team coming out of their bye.
Buffalo’s offense has been outstanding this season.
The Bills are third in scoring offense (30.6 points per game), tied for fifth in yards per play (6.1), second in EPA per play (0.17), tied for fifth in EPA per pass (0.21), third in EPA per rush (0.10), and second in success rate (48.77%).
Buffalo’s offense starts at the top with Josh Allen.
He’s third in total EPA (49.29) and tied for sixth EPA per play (0.25) among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this season.
Allen will get a rare opportunity to play indoors.
According to Tru Media, in seven games indoors or in a venue with a retractable roof since 2020, Allen has completed 67.7% of 257 pass attempts for 2,011 yards (287.3 per game), 7.8 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 99.2 Quarterback Rating.
Allen could be busy against the Falcons.
Despite facing Baker Mayfield and then the unimposing collection of J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, and Marcus Mariota – without Terry McLaurin – Atlanta’s defense has faced a 60% situation-neutral pass rate this season.
Considering the Falcons’ opponents at quarterback, their third-best EPA per pass (-0.13) allowed this year should be taken with a grain of salt.
Additionally, the Falcons are tied for the sixth-most EPA per rush (0.05) allowed this year.
Thus, James Cook should find running room to gash them for chunk gains.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 47 running backs with at least 25 carries this year, Cook is second in rushing yards per game (90.0), 10th in yards per carry (5.00), 21st in explosive run rate (4.4%), 17th in success rate (56.1%) in man/gap runs, and third in success rate (68.8%) in zone concepts.
Coming out of the bye, the Falcons could fire on all cylinders and push Buffalo’s offense to keep pace.
The Bills haven’t played great defense this year, either.
They’ve allowed the 13th-most EPA per play (0.02) this season.
Michael Penix’s home and road splits are also noteworthy for this contest.
According to StatHead, in four career starts at home, Penix has completed 64.7% of 133 pass attempts for 1,125 yards (281.25 per game), 7.89 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, a 2.21 sack rate, and a 94.3 quarterback rating.
Penix to Drake London will give Buffalo’s secondary trouble, and Bijan Robinson will give the defense fits on the ground and as a pass-catching weapon.
The Falcons should push the Bills, and Allen should lead Buffalo to more than 27.5 points in the first game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader.