Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Panthers visiting the Jets and the Colts facing off against the Chargers.
Week 7 Best Bet Prediction: Panthers -1
The Carolina Panthers are 3-3, and the New York Jets are the NFL’s lone winless team this year, sitting at 0-6.
Moreover, the Panthers have won back-to-back nailbiters.
The Panthers have a decent offense by some measures and an offensive identity.
According to Sumer Sports, the Panthers are 10th in success rate (46.51%), and the run game is their engine, ranking fourth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush (0.08).
Rico Dowdle has exploded for 183 and 206 rushing yards with 239 and 234 scrimmage yards in consecutive weeks.
Dowdle could get some backfield relief this week in the form of Chuba Hubbard.
His return would provide the Panthers with a formidable one-two punch in the backfield.
Conversely, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the Jets have coughed up the 12th-most rushing yards per game (127.0) and the 13th-most yards per carry (4.43) in their previous three games.
If they maintain their recent run defense, the Panthers can run to their heart’s content.
The Panthers aren’t the only team in this game that wants to lean on its rushing attack.
Instead, per nfelo, the Jets have the lowest pass rate over expectations (-8.3%).
Unfortunately for Gang Green, they’re running into a suddenly stout run defense.
The Panthers have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (51.3) and the fewest yards per carry (2.48) since Week 4.
Carolina’s stingy run defense will likely force Justin Fields to beat them.
Fields is ill-equipped to beat anyone.
The Jets dubiously had -10 net passing yards last week after Fields took as many sacks (9) as he had completions (9) against the Broncos in Week 6.
Moreover, among 33 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this year, Fields is 22nd in Pro Football Focus’ passing grade and has the fourth-highest pressure-to-sack rate (24.4).
I’m not overthinking this game.
Instead, I’ll back the better running offense in the better matchup for their rushing attack and take the Panthers -1 points at -110 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Week 7 Best Bet Prediction: Colts Over 24.5 Team Total
The Indianapolis Colts are a wagon on offense.
Per Sumer Sports, the Colts are first in EPA per play (0.18), first in success rate (50.69%), tied for fifth in EPA per pass (0.24), and first in EPA per rush (0.11).
The Colts also rank well in traditional measures.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Colts are tied for first in yards per play (6.3) and first in points per game (32.3).
Indy has scored at least 29 points in five of six games, and their season-low 20 points against the Rams in Week 4 comes with the caveat of Adonai Mitchell inexplicably dropping a would-be touchdown at the one-yard line, fumbling it through the end zone for a touchback.
The offense is set for a big day in a mouthwatering matchup for Indy’s offensive focal point, Jonathan Taylor.
Taylor leads the NFL in rush attempts (115), rushing yards per game (100.5), and rushing touchdowns (7).
His underlying data is also outstanding.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 43 running backs with at least 30 rush attempts this year, Taylor is fifth in yards per carry (5.24), 24th in yards before contact per attempt (2.00), fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.24), 16th in explosive run rate (5.2%), 13th in stuff rate (42.6%), tied for seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.20), and first in success rate (70.5%) on man/gap runs.
A matchup against the Taylor is a bad time for a run defense to be in a slump, but that’s where the Chargers find themselves.
Since Week 4, the Chargers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (153.7) at a blistering 5.07 yards per carry.
Taylor should run roughshod over the Chargers.
Fortunately, if Los Angeles sells out to stop the run, Daniel Jones has played exceedingly well.
He’s second in total EPA (60.71) and tied for fourth among quarterbacks with more than 100 dropbacks in EPA per play (0.28).
Thus, taking +100 odds for the Colts to clear 24.5 points offered at BetMGM Sportsbook is alluring.