We hit on Rico Dowdle last week, whose odds were mispriced given the circumstances.
Dowdle is on an absolute terror in his two games without Chuba Hubbard, as Dowdle has the two highest rushing games of the season to date.
Week 6 had seven running backs hit the century rushing mark, five of whom were on the winning team.
Running back efficiency remains down compared to last year.
Running backs are averaging 4.2 yards per carry, 0.2 yards less than last season.
Offensive line injuries and continuity continue to be a league-wide issue.
Running backs average 1.2 yards before contact, which is down from 1.35 last year.
An important trend in chasing most rushing yards is the fact that eight of the 10 highest individual rushing games have been on the winning team, and the two on the losing team lost by a single point.
In targeting a leading rusher, game state is important. We want to chase teams that are leading.
NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Running Back | Rushing Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 169 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor | 165 | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | David Montgomery | 151 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Ashton Jeanty | 138 | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Rico Dowdle | 206 | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rico Dowdle | 183 | Dallas Cowboys |
Most Week 7 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Bill Croskey-Merritt (+1400)
Going back to the well with a running back facing the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys' rush defense flew under the radar for the opening part of the season because the pass defense was so exploitable.
Rush or pass, the Cowboys defense does not have answers, which is great for game total overs and player statistics.
The Dallas offense is currently first in the league in EPA per play, despite missing several key starters, and the defense is last in EPA per play.
Opponents have the need and ability to pile up yards and points, and the Washington offense should have several avenues to success this week.
In what was a slow start to the season, Bill has earned his way to more touches and should now be considered the lead back on the Commanders.
Croskey-Merritt has increased his rush share every single week and had 78.3% of the backfield touches in Week 6.
He has his best matchup of the season this Week against the Cowboys.
Over the past two weeks, Breece Hall and Rico Dowdle have averaged 3.79 and 3.13 yards before contact, when the league average is 1.2 yards before contact.
Hall averaged 8.1 yards per rush, but had less volume as the Jets fell behind early in the game.
Like Hall, Croskey-Merritt plays with a mobile quarterback, which can increase rush efficiency for the running back.
Bill is averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season, and 35% of his rushes result in a first down or touchdown, the highest in the league.
Croskey-Merritt is having a very efficient rookie season and projects for the highest number of rushing attempts to date this week against the league’s worst defense.
This has potential for his most productive game as a pro.