Tracking leading passers throughout the season highlighted the importance of game state for peak passing outcomes.
Looking back at the results, game state was more important to high passing total games than the perceived passing matchup.
Through fifteen weeks of the season, eight of the weekly passing yardage leaders were involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and six quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.
| Wild Card Round NFL Odds |
|---|
| NFL Passing Leader Odds |
| NFL Receiving Leader Odds |
| NFL Rushing Leader Odds |
Game state continues to be very important.
Teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.
Matthew Stafford is the passing leader favorite, but unless the Panthers push back, it is difficult to see a ceiling game required by the Rams, who have a great matchup on the ground.
NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Quarterback | Passing Yards | Opponent | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 394 | Baltimore Ravens | 41-40 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 450 | Dallas Cowboys | 37-40 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 300 | Denver Broncos | 23-20 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 375 | Indianapolis Colts | 27-20 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 389 | San Francisco 49ers | 23-26 |
| 6 | Mac Jones | 347 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 19-30 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | 420 | Indianapolis Colts | 24-38 |
| 8 | Jordan Love | 360 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-25 |
| 9 | Joe Flacco | 470 | Chicago Bears | 42-47 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | 320 | Washington Commanders | 44-22 |
| 11 | Jacoby Brissett | 452 | San Francisco 49ers | 22-41 |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | 366 | Detroit Lions | 27-34 |
| 13 | Bo Nix | 321 | Washington Commanders | 27-26 |
| 14 | Dak Prescott | 376 | Detroit Lions | 30-44 |
| 15 | Kirk Cousins | 373 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29-28 |
| 16 | Matthew Stafford | 457 | Seattle Seahawks | 37-38 |
| 17 | Baker Mayfield | 346 | Miami Dolphins | 17-20 |
| 18 | Jared Goff | 331 | Chicago Bears | 19-16 |
Most Wild Card Round Passing Yards Prediction: Josh Allen (+850)
The Buffalo Bills finished the season with drastic splits in terms of point differentials.
In the first half of games, the Bills had a -11 point differential compared to a +127 point differential in the second half.
The Bills trailed by 10 or more points at halftime five times this season.
The other six AFC playoff teams trailed by 10 or more points five times at halftime combined.
The Jaguars finished the season fourth in first-half points scored and third in first-half point differential, which could force the Bills to turn to “Super Josh” earlier than desired.
The Jaguars faced the fewest rush attempts this season.
This is a result of a run defense that ranks third in success rate and building early leads, forcing teams to pass.
The Buffalo Bills had the most rush attempts this season, but finished the year with the fourth-highest EPA per dropback.
Since the start of 2024, the Bills have the highest EPA per dropback despite the lack of elite receivers.
Allen is arguably the best quarterback in the game at the moment, and his team has the 31st-ranked pass rate over expectation.
Assuming the Bills will have to rely on Allen against a scorching-hot Jaguars team, Allen should have the opportunity to lead in passing yards this weekend.
Wild Card Round Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Bryce Young Passing Ladders
- 200+ Passing Yards (+101)
- 230+ Passing Yards (+210)
- 250+ Passing Yards (+330)
- 300+ Passing Yards (+1100)
The Panthers opened the season with Bryce Young dropping back 59 and 40 times in the opening two weeks of the season.
From Week 3 onward, Young averaged 31.2 dropbacks per game.
The only game after Week 2 in which Young hit 40 dropbacks was against the Falcons.
The common theme of the Young high drop-back games was a double-digit deficit in the first half.
The four highest drop-back games in which Young started this season happened to be the four games in which the Panthers trailed by double digits at halftime.
In the first meeting between these two teams, the Panthers forced 3 Matthew Stafford turnovers, including an interception that was returned for a touchdown.
The Rams had a negative turnover margin in four games this season, so a repeat -3 turnover margin is highly unlikely for the Panthers.
As double-digit underdogs, the most likely scenario sees a game in which the Rams build an early lead, forcing the Panthers to drop back to pass more than they would ideally like.
Young averaged 188 passing yards per game this season.
However, in the two games he dropped back to pass more than 40 times, he had 448 and 328 passing yards.
If the Panthers fall behind, Dave Canales has shown that he can pivot to a pass-heavy approach, which is in the range of outcomes this weekend.