Wild Card Weekend for the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Bills against the Jaguars and the Texans traveling to face the Steelers.
Wild Card Round Best Bet Prediction: Buffalo Bills Over 26.5 Points (-113)
The Bills want to run the football.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Buffalo was 28th in pass rate over expectations (-3.0% PROE) in the regular season.
James Cook captured the NFL’s rushing title this year, and the rushing attack is potent, ranking tied for first in expected points added (EPA) per rush (0.08).
It’s not unreasonable to feed Cook at Josh Allen’s passing expense, and Allen adds to the rushing game with his legs.
Nevertheless, Joe Brady will likely need to cut Allen loose in the Wild Card Round.
The Jaguars were first in rushing yards per game (85.6) allowed, fifth in yards per carry (3.94) allowed, and second in explosive run rate (2.7%) allowed in the regular season.
They weren’t perfect against the run, though.
The Jaguars were tied for 11th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.05).
Jacksonville was also 21st in success rate (51.5%) allowed.
Thus, the Bills shouldn’t be bottled up entirely on the ground.
Again, they’ll likely take to the air more frequently, though.
The Jags faced the second-highest PROE (+4.4%) this season.
Jacksonville’s offense should also push the Bills to keep pace.
The Jaguars were tied for 11th in EPA per play (0.03), tied for 11th in EPA per pass (0.06), tied for 11th in EPA per rush (-0.01), and tied for 14th in success rate (43.73%) in the regular season.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Jaguars finished the regular season sixth in scoring offense (27.9 points per game).
Additionally, the Jaguars cranked up the pass down the stretch. Since Week 14, Jacksonville was first in PROE (+8.6%).
The Jaguars airing it out and coaxing the Bills to do the same with their pass-funnel defense would be a boon to the game’s scoring potential.
Furthermore, the Bills have cooked on offense when Allen has ripped it. According to StatHead, Allen has attempted at least 30 passes in 16 games since last year, including the postseason.
The Bills exceeded 26.5 points in 11 of those 16 contests.
Buffalo has also hung points in the postseason.
In Allen’s 13 career playoff starts, the Bills have surpassed 26.5 points eight times, and he fell short of that mark in three of his first four postseason starts.
The Bills went over 26.5 points in all three of their playoff games last year, and they’ve done so in seven of their last nine postseason games.
The Bills will have their hands full against the hot Jaguars, but Buffalo’s offense should hold up its end of the bargain and clear 26.5 points on Sunday.
Wild Card Round Best Bet Prediction: Houston Texans Under 20.5 Points (-118)
The Texans are road favorites against the AFC North champion Steelers.
Houston’s defense is a juggernaut, but the offense is unimpressive.
Houston is tied for 21st in EPA per play (-0.02), tied for 14th in EPA per pass (0.04), 30th in EPA per rush (-0.09), 28th in success rate (40.90%), tied for 23rd in yards per play (5.1), and 13th in scoring offense (23.8 points per game).
The Steelers have an inconsistent defense, but it has played pretty well at home.
According to StatHead, the Steelers have allowed 172 points (21.5 per game), 1,650 passing yards (206.25 per game), 6.2 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), 11 passing touchdowns, 707 rushing yards (88.37 per game), 3.7 yards per carry, and 7 rushing touchdowns in eight home games this season.
The Seahawks (31 points in Week 2), Packers (35 points in Week 8), Bills (26 points in Week 13), and Ravens (24 points in Week 18) cleared 20.5 points against the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
However, the Steelers held the Browns (9 points in Week 6), the Colts (20 points in Week 9), the Bengals (12 points in Week 11), and the Dolphins (15 points in Week 15) under 20.5 points at Acrisure Stadium.
Houston’s offense is closer in quality to the teams in the latter group than to those in the former.
Moreover, C.J. Stroud has some eye-catching splits.
According to Pro Football Reference, in 15 regular-season games outdoors in his career, Stroud has completed just 59% of his 466 pass attempts for 2,994 yards (199.6 per game), 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 17 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and an 83.9 quarterback rating with 40 sacks and 4 fumbles lost.
The Texans also mustered only 10 points against the Ravens in Baltimore in the Divisional Round for the 2023 season and 14 points against the Chiefs in Kansas City in the Divisional Round for the 2024 season in Stroud’s only two outdoor games in the playoffs.
Stroud started four games outdoors this year.
The Texans scored 10 points against the Jaguars in Jacksonville in Week 3, 44 against the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 5, 19 against the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 7, and 20 against the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 14.
So, the Texans averaged 23.25 points per game in Stroud’s four games outdoors this year, but they went under 20.5 points three times, with a median of 19.5 points.
Stroud’s struggles outside in his career will make it difficult for the Texans to surpass 20.5 points against the Steelers.
As a result, the under for their team total is an alluring bet.