SMU vs. Louisville, Current Betting Odds:
- Louisville -1.5 points
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SMU vs. Louisville Best Bet Prediction:
- Louisville -1.5 points
This game feels appropriately lined as a near toss-up, but the athleticism of Lincoln Kienholz might give the Cardinals a slight edge, so let's take Louisville against the spread.
When SMU Is on Offense
SMU runs a pass-heavy offense under head coach Rhett Lashlee, who also calls the offense.
According to situational data from Campus2Canton, the Mustangs had a pass rate 9.6% above expected last season.
With Kevin Jennings entering his third season as the starter, SMU's offense should remain aggressive and may lean even more on its veteran quarterback.
The key to this matchup will be protecting Jennings against what looks like a formidable Louisville pass rush.
In their season opener against Ole Miss, the Cardinals pressured Trinidad Chambliss on 39% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate he's faced at the FBS level, surpassed only by Miami in last year's semifinal matchup.
Fortunately for SMU, its offensive line returns four players with starting experience from a unit that ranked 33rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed last season, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Jennings also tends to avoid pressure by getting rid of the ball quickly: 54% of his throws in the season opener against Florida State were released in under 2.5 seconds, according to Pro Football Focus, and he was pressured on just 9.5% of those plays.
Louisville probably doesn't have the pass rushers to consistently disrupt Jennings on those quick pass plays, but the Cardinals did fare well against Ole Miss' quick-passing attack.
On throws five or fewer yards downfield, which accounts for much of the quick-passing game, Louisville held Chambliss to just 5.1 yards per completion, well below his 7.6 rate in 2025.
In the run game, SMU likely has an edge given its experience on the offensive line.
Take a look at how these teams match up in the run game based on 2025 opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- SMU: ranked 12th in yards before contact gained
- Louisville: ranked 39th in yards before contact allowed
- SMU: ranked 98th in yards after contact gained
- Louisville: ranked 31st in yards after contact allowed
Louisville lost every starter from its defensive line a year ago, so it's hard to trust the Cardinals to contain SMU's rushing attack against an experienced offensive line.
In its season opener, Louisville struggled to generate early contact, which contributed to its inability to force Ole Miss into tough down-and-distance situations.
Louisville forced a third-and-long on just 16% of Ole Miss' sets of downs in that matchup (FBS average: 23%).
When Louisville Is on Offense
Louisville has run a pass-heavy offense under Jeff Brohm and his coordinator Brian Brohm, but that might change slightly with Lincoln Kienholz at quarterback.
Kienholz is a dangerous runner and already has 17 carries for 130 yards, excluding sacks.
Only four of those carries have been scrambles, so the Brohms are at least dabbling with the quarterback run game, which has been absent from the offense in recent years with pocket passers like Tyler Shough and Miller Moss.
The coaching staff may still be working out how best to use his legs, though.
In Week 1 against Ole Miss, only 14% of their running plays used the read-option, below the FBS average (16%) and well below the typical rate for teams with athletic quarterbacks like Kienholz.
It's worth noting, however, that Louisville averaged 10.3 yards per carry on those read-option plays, so perhaps that is an element of the offense which could grow.
Leaning on Kienholz could be the ideal strategy against SMU, which ranked 130th a season ago in opponent-adjusted rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks.
Florida State's Ashton Daniels also ran for 87 yards on 16 carries, excluding sacks, against the Mustangs in the season opener.
In terms of more traditional running plays, the jury is still out on whether running back Isaac Brown can replicate his success from the 2025 season, in part due to some questions on the offensive line.
Against Ole Miss, Louisville running backs averaged 0.7 yards before contact per attempt and were hit at or behind the line of scrimmage 44% of the time, according to Sports Info Solutions.
That was a shocking development, as Louisville ranked 10th in the nation in opponent-adjusted yards before contact last season, while Ole Miss' defense ranked 116th and lost some key defenders in the offseason.
Although Louisville's offensive line has plenty of experience, the interior consists of three portal additions, and it's not off to a great start.
It doesn't help that left tackle Anwar O'neal is dealing with an injury and hasn't suited up, while right tackle Cason Henry, who had season-ending shoulder surgery last year, was injured in Week 1 and missed last week's contest.
To make matters worse for the run game, backup running back Keyjuan Brown, who averaged 9.6 carries per game last year, was injured last week against Villanova.
As for SMU's defense, the Mustangs appear to have a solid run defense unit again, though it's tough to know for certain with four transfers on the defensive line and only one game against FBS opponents under their belt.
Last year SMU allowed just 1.3 yards before contact per rush to FBS running backs, ranked 13th in the country 一 a rate the defense perfectly replicated in its season opener against Florida State.
Louisville's banged-up offensive line might be an issue in the passing game as well, though it's too early to say with confidence how strong SMU's pass rush will be this season.
SMU ranked 77th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate a season ago and lost its top five leaders in pressures to the NFL or the portal.
Although SMU opened the season with a strong 44% pressure rate against Florida State, it's tough to know whether to trust that data point given FSU's issues (the Seminoles ranked 116th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed last year).
That number is probably inflated by Florida State's offense, which isn't designed to get the ball out quickly.
Daniels got rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds just 19% of the time against SMU and did not face any pressure on those quick dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus.
Kienholz released the ball in under 2.5 seconds 48% of the time against Ole Miss, and that high rate is a staple of the Brohm offense (Miller Moss was at 54% last year).
So despite concerns about the offensive line, if Kienholz gets rid of the ball quickly and Louisville leans on his athleticism, the Cardinals offense should be just fine in this matchup.
Final Thoughts on SMU vs. Louisville Best Bets
Let's trust the home team with the more dangerous athlete and bet Louisville against the spread.
Although we're still learning about Kienholz, who has just two starts under his belt, he's protected the ball well and did not appear fazed by the stage when he opened his career against Ole Miss in Week 1.
As long as Louisville protects the ball, the Cardinals should have an edge due to Jennings' mistake-prone ways on the road.
Jennings has 19 career interceptions on the road, compared to just 5 at home in Dallas.