Week 18 NFL Playoff Scenarios: What Every Team Is Playing For

While the majority of the playoff field is already set, there will be a lot on the line for several teams in Week 18.

Two games feature win-and-in scenarios, and another is for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

The No. 1 seed in the AFC is also still up for grabs, with the Broncos, Patriots, and Jaguars all competing for that crown.

Let's look at the playoff scenarios for every game with an eye on how every team will approach the end of the season.

Bucs vs. Panthers Playoff Scenarios

The Panthers will lock up the NFC South and the No. 4 seed in the NFC with a win. The Bucs need to win this game and have the Falcons lose to win the division and fourth seed. 

Betting Line: Bucs -2.5

The Falcons' win on Monday night keeps this game from being a winner-take-all contest, but that should not affect the motivation on either side.

The Panthers can assure themselves a spot in the playoffs with a win.

The Bucs' only path to the playoffs is to first win this game.

There are no motivation questions on either side.

49ers vs. Seahawks Playoff Scenarios

The winner of this contest will win the NFC West and be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Betting Line: Seahawks -1.5

This is an easy scenario.

Both the 49ers and Seahawks are locked into the playoffs, but the winner of this game will get the No. 1 seed and a bye.

If the Seahawks lose, they will be the No. 5 seed.

If the 49ers lose, they can fall all the way to the No. 6 seed if the Rams win against the Cardinals on Sunday.

Jaguars vs. Titans Playoff Scenarios

The Jaguars can lock up the AFC South and at least the No. 3 seed in the AFC with a win over the Titans. Jacksonville is also still in play for the No. 2 seed and the No. 1 seed, but they need losses from the Patriots and Broncos to make that happen.

Betting Line: Jaguars -12.5

With the Texans nipping at their heels, the Jaguars have all the motivation in the world heading into the final game of the season.

Jacksonville also still has a shot at the No. 1 seed, though that is unlikely since they would need both the Patriots and Broncos to lose.

Still, if the Jaguars win and either of those two teams loses, they could also climb into the No. 2 seed.

Texans vs. Colts Playoff Scenarios

The Texans need a win and a Jaguars loss to win the AFC South and get the No. 3 seed in the AFC. Houston can fall all the way to the No. 7 seed with a loss. 

Betting Line: Texans -10.5

The Texans might not be able to catch the Jaguars, who just need a win against the 3-13 Titans, but they have further motivation in this game.

Houston can fall all the way to the No. 7 seed if they lose and the Chargers and Bills win.

We already know the Chargers will rest their starters, and the Bills may do the same.

Still, the Texans will not know for sure at kickoff since both the Chargers and Bills play in the late window.

Coach DeMeco Ryans has already confirmed the team will play to win against the Colts.

On the other side, the Colts will sit Philip Rivers for the meaningless season finale.

Rookie Riley Leonard is expected to get the start.

Vikings vs. Packers Playoff Scenarios

The Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed in the NFC. The Vikings have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Betting Line: Vikings -6.5

There is no playoff motivation on either side of this game.

The Packers cannot improve their playoff seeding, and the Vikings have already been eliminated.

The line (MIN -6.5) suggests the Packers will rest their starters, especially given their injury issues on both sides of the ball, but coach Matt LaFleur said that has yet to be decided as of Monday.

On the other side, the Vikings have not declared who they will start at quarterback in the season finale.

J.J. McCarthy is recovering from a broken bone in his throwing hand.

Falcons vs. Saints Playoff Scenarios

The Falcons and the Saints have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Betting Line: Falcons -3

The Falcons cannot make the playoffs, but they are in an interesting position.

If Atlanta and Tampa Bay win, that will create a three-way tie at the top of the NFC South.

The Panthers would win that tiebreaker, meaning Carolina can lose on Saturday and still make the playoffs if the Falcons win on Sunday.

On the other side, the Saints have been playing well lately, and they likely want to keep the momentum with their young quarterback heading into the offseason.

Giants vs. Cowboys Playoff Scenarios

The Giants and the Cowboys have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Betting Line: Cowboys -4.5

There is nothing to play for in this game, but both the Cowboys and Giants are expected to play their starters in the season finale.

Still, it is worth watching the transaction wire throughout the week to see if any starters with small injuries land on injured reserve to close the season.

It is also possible that the Cowboys get Dak Prescott and some of the other stars out of the game early, as Jerry Jones hinted at on Tuesday.

Bengals vs. Browns Playoff Scenarios

The Bengals and the Browns have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Betting Line: Bengals -7.5

There is nothing to play for in this game, but the biggest star will be on the field.

Coach Zac Taylor has already confirmed Joe Burrow will start against the Browns.

There is also motivation on the other side with a rookie quarterback looking to make his case and Myles Garrett chasing the single-season sack record.

Broncos vs. Chargers Playoff Scenarios

The Broncos can lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win. The Chargers can climb to the No. 5 seed in the AFC with a win and a Texans loss.

Betting Line: Broncos -12.5

While the Chargers could still improve their playoff positioning with a win and some help, they are making the unsurprising decision to sit an injured Justin Herbert for the season finale.

That is great news for the Broncos, who can lock up the No. 1 seed with a win.

Denver will certainly go all out in this game, and they could be less likely to rest starters later in the game — assuming a blowout — since a win gets them a first-round bye.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Playoff Scenarios

The Patriots can climb to the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win and a Broncos loss. The Dolphins are eliminated from the playoffs. 

Betting Line: Patriots -11.5

The Patriots still have plenty to play for with a chance at the No. 1 seed, though the news that the Chargers will rest Justin Herbert hurts their chances.

Still, the Patriots should be motivated to win this game against a Dolphins team that already played a spoiler role last week against the Bucs.

Bears vs. Lions Playoff Scenarios

The Bears can lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win. The Lions are eliminated from the playoffs.

Betting Line: Bears -2.5

The Bears have a clear motivation to win this game with the No. 2 seed on the line.

The Lions are a little more interesting since they have already been knocked out of the playoffs, and coach Dan Campbell has already hinted they will play it safe with some of their injured players (aka, most of the team).

That means Amon-Ra St. Brown is unlikely to play, but we still should see Jared Goff and the other weapons on offense.

Eagles vs. Commanders Playoff Scenarios

The Eagles can climb to the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win and a Bears loss. The Commanders are eliminated from the playoffs.

Betting Line: Eagles -7

The Eagles can still climb to the No. 2 seed if the Bears lose, but that does not mean they will play their starters for the entire game against Washington.

Coach Nick Sirianni did not reveal the plan on Monday, saying the Eagles were still working through their decision.

Even so, it would not be surprising if Jalen Hurts and some of the other stars spend time on the bench against the Commanders.

On the other side, Jayden Daniels has already been shut down for the season, and it does not sound as if Marcus Mariota will be back for the season finale.

Bills vs. Jets Playoff Scenarios

The Bills can climb to the No. 5 seed in the AFC with a win and losses by the Texans and Chargers. The Jets are eliminated from the playoffs.

Betting Line: Bills -7

The Bills can still climb to the No. 5 seed, but they also have a quarterback who is clearly dealing with an injury.

It would be a surprise if we see Josh Allen this week.

The Jets gave up on football a long time ago.

Rams vs. Cardinals Playoff Scenarios

The Rams can earn the No. 5 seed with a win and a 49ers loss. The Cardinals are eliminated from the playoffs.

Betting Line: Rams -7.5

Coach Sean McVay has traditionally prioritized rest over playoff seeding, though this year could be a little different.

The No. 5 seed sets up a date with the winner of the NFC South.

The No. 6 seed likely means a trip to face the Eagles.

The Rams also lost on Monday night, and after that game, McVay said they need to get in a groove playing betting football.

Matthew Stafford is also still in the thick of the MVP race, which could affect how much he is on the field.

All of that suggests we will not see the usual full shutdown from the Rams, but they still could play it safe in the second half.

Raiders vs. Chiefs Playoff Scenarios

The Raiders and the Chiefs have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Betting Line: Chiefs -5.5

The Chiefs are no strangers to meaningless Week 18 games, but usually it is because they are heading to the playoffs.

Kansas City could still have some motivation to get Travis Kelce a few milestones in what could be his final game.

On the other side, the Raiders are likely to have Kenny Pickett at quarterback after shutting down both Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby last week.

The Raiders can also lock up the No. 1 overall pick with a loss.

Steelers vs. Ravens Playoff Scenarios

This game will decide the AFC North and the No. 4 seed in the AFC.

Betting Line: Ravens -3.5

We are finishing up with an easy one.

The winner of this game will win the division and earn the No. 4 seed.

The loser will not make the playoffs.

Given the stakes, Lamar Jackson will certainly do everything he can to return for this game, but his status remains up in the air.

T.J. Watt is reportedly a long shot to play in the season finale.