2026 Fantasy Rookie Quarterback Rankings: Pre-Draft Tiers

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie quarterback tiers for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

Now that the Combine has passed, we have a full picture of the athletic data on this incoming quarterback class.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

The quarterback position for fantasy is the one that has the most significant difference in terms of success at the position when compared to “real” football.

Scouting and analyzing how collegiate passers will translate to the NFL has been an ongoing battle that has suffered more losses than wins.

The good news is that we are not selecting these passers with the real-life ramifications that an NFL franchise faces when a player evaluation is missed.

We also have the benefit of knowing which quarterback archetypes can access fantasy upside and adjust accordingly.

This class does not have a wealth of mobility paired with passing production.

With SuperFlex and 2QB formats rising in popularity and adding relevance to the position, the top of the position has become more pertinent in Dynasty Rookie Drafts.

That boosts the quarterbacks who could have floor capability.

However, that later bucket of passers who rely solely on passing production to create fantasy points has minimal value.

It is mainly replaceable in formats requiring you to start one player at the position.

While the position continues to grow, until formats that allow multiple starting quarterbacks to become the industry standard, the quarterback position remains a supply-and-demand game that favors suppressing incoming rookies, since so many fantasy leagues still start one quarterback.

This quarterback class continues a soft runout for quarterback prospects.

The 2024 draft class had six quarterbacks selected in the opening 12 picks, but it has been the standout over recent seasons.

In 2025, we had two first-round quarterbacks.

In 2023, we had three.

In 2022, only one quarterback was selected in the first 70 picks, and he (Kenny Pickett) was selected 20th overall.

This class has only one quarterback locked into front-end draft capital.

This quarterback group is marked by one primary asset that we know will be the first selection of the draft, and then several question marks.

Jump To:

• Tier 1 Rookie Quarterbacks
• Tier 2 Rookie Quarterbacks
• Tier 3 Rookie Quarterbacks
• Tier 4 Rookie Quarterbacks
• Fantasy Football Rankings

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2026 Tier 1 Rookie Quarterbacks

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Rookie Age*: 22.9

*Age on 9/1/26

The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner is where this draft will kick off.

Mendoza transferred to Indiana after two seasons at Cal, where he and the team reeled off a 16-0 season and a National Championship.

After throwing 30 passing touchdowns over his two seasons at Cal, Mendoza threw 41 passing touchdowns last season.

The former 3-star recruit improved his completion percentage and yards per pass attempt average in all three seasons in college.

His final season completion percentage (72%) ranks 94th percentile, while his touchdown to interception rate (41 to 6) ranks 92nd percentile, and his 9.3 yards per pass attempt sits 84th percentile among all prospects since 2000.

Mendoza’s calling cards are that he has prototypical size (6-foot-5 and 236 pounds) and plays on schedule with accuracy.

A class-high 79% of his throws were on target in 2025.

The seasoning for Mendoza is that he played his best in high-leverage situations.

On 139 career dropbacks in the red zone, Mendoza threw only 1 interception while taking 7 sacks.

This past season at Indiana, Mendoza took 69 dropbacks in the red zone, throwing 26 passing touchdowns with 0 interceptions and taking 2 sacks.

On third and fourth downs, Mendoza had a class-high 75.3% on-target throw rate and a class-high 14.7% touchdown rate.

Mendoza was ripping the ball downfield in those spots, too, averaging 10.9 yards per throw downfield on third and fourth downs, which was second in this class.

The nits to pick with Mendoza entering the NFL are how he will perform in a more challenging environment and how he will adapt his game to the current NFL.

There will be some who ask about how his offensive environment at the college level was perfectly in tune with his strengths.

Mendoza had the lowest drop rate in this class (2.2%).

Mendoza benefited from a heavy RPO offense predicated on a high rate of throws outside the numbers and into traffic.

23.4% of his dropbacks and 25.4% of his pass attempts last season were on RPO calls, by far the highest rates of this class.

The next-closest quarterback in both departments was Mark Gronowski of Iowa, who had a 16.3% RPO dropback rate and 16.4% of his pass attempts on those play calls.

Mendoza only threw 55.2% of his passes over the middle of the field (12th in this class).

If you look at the current state of the NFL, we have seen a spike in more condensed formations and a continued spike in playing under center, turning your back to the defense, and using traditional play action.

That has increased relevancy, knowing that we have close to 100% certainty that Mendoza will be selected first overall by the Raiders, who just hired Klint Kubiak as their head coach.

In the past two seasons with the Seahawks and Saints, Kubiak’s passers have had under-center rates of 54.8% (2nd in the league) and 42.5% (5th).

Over his three collegiate seasons, Mendoza has had only six dropbacks under center.

While that does take a step of faith in transitioning to the NFL, Kubiak has elevated both Derek Carr and Sam Darnold, prospects who offer a manageable bar of expectations.

Despite playing in a heavy RPO scheme, Mendoza did make big-time throws.

Only 13.9% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage (3rd-lowest rate in the class).

Only 14.4% of his throws were 20 or more yards downfield (10th), but he had the highest on-target throw rate (54.5%) on those passes.

Even if you are factoring in that his infrastructure of systems and surrounding talent accentuated those characteristics, Mendoza did everything he was asked to a high degree.

Mendoza was also battle-tested due to his conference and postseason run.

On 303 dropbacks against Power Conference opponents, Mendoza led this class in completion rate (71.9%), yards per pass attempt (9.3), and touchdown rate (10.6%).

He had five games against top 10 defenses last season (Oregon twice, Iowa, Ohio State, and Miami).

Ohio State and Miami did make Mendoza work in both games, but overall, he completed 65.3% of his passes for 8.3 Y/A with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

That quality schedule did give us a sample of Mendoza playing under pressure, which showcased some of the limitations we could see at the next level when the pass rush ramps up.

Under pressure against Ohio State and Miami, Mendoza was 9 of 16 (56.3%) for 93 yards (5.8 Y/A) with 0 touchdowns.

Kept clean in those games, he was 22 of 34 (64.7%) for 316 yards (9.3 Y/A).

At the end of the day, we are fully aware that Mendoza can have a high floor.

The questions (particularly for fantasy) are about his ceiling.

Mendoza has the profile as a weekly QB2 for fantasy who can moonlight as a QB1 during spike weeks and finish as a back-end QB1 in cumulative scoring.

From a modeling perspective, the closest comparison for Mendoza that I have is Sam Bradford.

The one thing Mendoza does have in his back pocket compared to the QB2 pocket passer group for fantasy is that he is not a complete zero in the running game.

Mendoza is not a run-first passer, but he is the 53rd percentile in career rushing output.

He had a 7.7% scramble rate last season, which was seventh in this class.

I don’t believe Mendoza has the full creativity of a Brock Purdy when things are out of structure, but the top-down fantasy archetype for him is in the same ballpark as Purdy.

2026 Tier 2 Rookie Quarterbacks

After Mendoza, we have a huge fall off at the position, with no guarantee that we see another passer taken in the first round.

Tier 2 is filled with question marks, but this group will largely be selected at worst on Day 2 of the draft based on the potential upside.

At one point in their college careers, all of these passers were considered locks for the first round.

We should see all of these players given a chance to compete for opportunities early in their careers, based on that, even if they all take a significant step of faith in being reliable starters.

Ty Simpson, Alabama

Rookie Age: 23.7

Simpson is the one player here still generating first-round buzz based on that stellar start to 2025.

We have had a strong indication throughout the early process that he will be the QB2 from this class, which keeps him ahead of the others in the tier since he has the best odds of starting out of the package, whether that is right or wrong.

Simpson is a former 5-star recruit who bided his time at Alabama, finally given a chance to start this season after Jalen Milroe left.

Simpson’s season could not have started any better.

Over the front half of the college football season, he was considered a contender for QB1 in this draft class and was adjacent to or ahead of Mendoza for some in terms of being the top quarterback in this class.

Whereas Mendoza closed the season strongly against high-end competition, Simpson dropped off.

Through the opening eight games last season, Simpson had completed 67.8% of his passes for 8.4 yards per pass attempt with 20 touchdowns to just 1 interception.

He threw multiple passing touchdowns in all eight games.

Then over the final seven games, Simpson completed 60.3% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt, throwing 8 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.

He threw 1 or fewer touchdown passes in five of those seven games.

Simpson dealt with a plethora of ailments as the season wore on.

He had a back injury at the end of October, elbow bursitis for the final three weeks, and then suffered a fractured rib in the Rose Bowl to close his season.

Simpson had gastritis that needed medication, which led to a rumored 20-pound weight loss during the season.

The Alabama run game was non-existent this past season, and Ryan Williams took a massive step back from his 2024 output.

There is no shortage of excuses for Simpson’s regression, but what we are left with is still a huge question mark.

He is entering the league as an older, inexperienced player with no full season in college of sustained production that warrants the use of high draft capital.

If he does end up in Round 1, he will have one of the lightest resumes of any Day 1 selection with only 523 career pass attempts.

Just six quarterbacks in the 2000s have been selected in the first round with fewer pass attempts:

• Trey Lance (288)
• Cam Newton (292)
• Michael Vick (343)
• Anthony Richardson (393)
• Mark Sanchez (487)
• Kyler Murray (519)

Nearly all of those quarterbacks had their low passing volume impacted by elite rushing ability.

Sanchez is arguably the closest resemblance to Simpson’s trajectory.

There have been another six quarterbacks selected in the first round with fewer than 600 career attempts:

• Mac Jones (556)
• Akili Smith (571)
• Mitch Trubisky (572)
• Carson Wentz (583)
• Alex Smith (587)
• Dwayne Haskins (590)

Combining all of those quarterbacks, we are not working with a high-end hit rate.

That is especially true when removing rushing upside, something we are not counting on from Simpson, who is a traditional dropback passer.

That limited sample gives us a mixed bag with Simpson as a passer as well.

Simpson did have 440 dropbacks against Power Conference competition (second in this class in 2025), but his 71.7% on-target rate in those games ranked 11th in this class, while his 7.3 yards per pass attempt average ranked 12th.

Simpson was blitzed on 44.4% of his dropbacks last year, the second-highest rate in the class.

On those blitzes, he averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, which was 12th out of the 16 quarterbacks invited to the NFL Combine.

Under pressure, Simpson posted 5.9 yards per pass attempt, which was 10th.

Removing screens. Simpson’s 7.6 yards per pass attempt ranked 12th.

Further complicating Simpson’s projection is that he lacks elite traits.

At 6-foot-1 and 211 pounds, he lacks prototypical size.

That is not a death knell, but almost every comparable first-round pick who has succeeded in that range of size has possessed mobility and out-of-the-structure creation as a cornerstone to their game.

The most recent example is Caleb Williams (6-foot-1 and 214 pounds), who has struggled in the traditional dropback game aspect through his first two seasons but has tremendous out-of-structure ability.

While Simpson’s overall sample size is small, he was asked to do more translational work on how offenses play in the NFL.

Only 6.5% of his dropbacks were RPO play calls, while he had the most dropbacks under center (48) of this class.

Simpson also had 8.9% of his passes dropped last season, which was the second-highest of this class.

Drew Allar, Penn State

Rookie Age: 22.5

Allar is arguably the most polarizing prospect in this draft class, or at least the most volatile.

He has all the physical traits that the league looks for.

At 6-foot-5 and 228 pounds, Allar has a big arm with experience.

He is also the youngest quarterback in this draft class.

The rub is that he lacks consistency overall while playing at his worst when games were sped up against front-end competition.

Allar had an incomplete 2025 season, appearing in just six games due to a season-ending ankle injury.

Penn State did not do him many favors based on scheduling before his injury.

They opened the year facing four bottom-rung opponents in Allar’s five complete games.

He only had 71 attempts against Power Conference opponents.

Despite the lack of strong competition while on the field, Allar only threw for 6.9 yards per pass attempt (13th in this class).

He completed a class-low 50% of his passes on third and fourth downs.

From a career perspective, Allar threw 4.7 touchdown passes to every interception for his career, which is 92nd percentile.

Unfortunately, his 63.2% career completion rate ranks in the 52nd percentile, while his 7.4 yards per pass attempt ranks in the 27th percentile.

Big spots are where we lacked a spark from Allar.

In the 2024 postseason run, Allar completed just 51.7% of his passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt over those four games.

In two career starts against Ohio State, Allar was 30 of 62 (48.4%) for 337 yards (5.4 Y/A).

In their 2023 Bowl Game against Ole Miss, Allar completed 48.7% of his passes, although he did have a pair of touchdowns.

His athleticism and arm talent are not in question, but all of that makes Allar a bet on the traits and cache he was a 5-star recruit entering school.

His size, age, and athletic upside will surely be alluring to an organization that believes he was mismanaged during his development, a common criticism.

Allar also has some athleticism to go with his size.

He rushed for 16.3 yards per game with 12 touchdowns over his career.

His 10.8% scramble rate last season was third in this class.

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Rookie Age: 24.6

After a breakout season in 2024, throwing 29 touchdowns and for 311.7 yards per game, Nussmeier took a step back last season, throwing just 12 touchdowns while averaging 214.1 yards per game over his nine games played.

As a common thread so far in this group, Nussmeier’s 2025 campaign was affected and ultimately cut short by an abdominal injury.

Nussmeier stated at the NFL Combine that the injury occurred in the preseason during fall camp and impacted his ability to push the ball downfield.

That shows up noticeably in his splits from his sample this season and a year ago.

On top of the limitations that he faced while throwing the football, 8.5% of Nussmeier’s passes were dropped last season after a 6.4% rate in 2024.

LSU also lost four offensive linemen from 2024 to the NFL draft, which impacted play up front.

That compounded any restrictions he faced when throwing downfield, paired with a spike in drops.

That opened the door for some poor play on his own end.

He took a sack on 19% of his pressures this past season after a 9.8% rate in 2024.

Balancing out the playing with more surrounding NFL talent on offense in 2024 (starting tight end Mason Taylor also left via the draft) and how much of his 2025 regression was due solely to his injuries is a tough ask.

To compound matters, similar to Simpson, Nussmeier is an undersized pocket passer.

Nussmeier is 6-foot-2 and 203 pounds.

He does have impressive arm talent for his size, but also comes with a 30th-percentile career touchdown-to-interception rate (2.2:1).

We can take his 7.5 yards per pass attempt with a grain of salt, but it is also in the 30th percentile.

There is next to zero rushing component to Nussmeier’s game to offset any potential limitations as a passer.

His career rushing production ranks in the 12th percentile, and he has the lowest scramble rate in this draft class (2.3%).

He is the son of Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier.

His background as the son of an NFL coach will surely carry some bonus points for organizations, but Nussmeier is another volatile prospect who needs development at the next level.

With a worse rushing profile than both Allar and Simpson, while being older than both, Nussmeier makes for a thinner bet for fantasy purposes.

Cade Klubnik, Clemson

Rookie Age: 22.9

Klubnik is another quarterback here who was coming off a strong 2024 season, but lost ground after a rocky 2025 season.

After 36 passing touchdowns to 6 interceptions in 2024, Klubnik tossed 16 touchdowns with 6 interceptions last season at Clemson.

Looking under the hood at both seasons (and his 2023 season), Klubnik appears to have just run hot in the touchdown department in 2024, and that was the outlier.

His completion rate, depth of target, and yards per pass attempt were all in a similar line this season, but he went from a 7.4% touchdown rate in 2024 to 4.1% this past season.

Klubnik is another quarterback who is on the smaller end (6-foot-2 and 207 pounds), but he is young, experienced, and has more athleticism to avoid sacks and create rushing lanes.

He has the most pass attempts from this draft class while being the second-youngest passer available.

Klubnik was pressured at the third-highest rate of his draft class (34.3%) but was second in sack rate on those pressures (11.6%).

Klubnik has a 63rd-percentile rushing profile, which ranks sixth in this class.

He also had the third-best big-time throw rate when pressured (7.6%).

8.5% of his passes were also dropped, the third-highest rate of this class.

Klubnik shows the upside plays, but it is the down-to-down consistency and winning in high-leverage spots that he has to iron out to develop into a multi-year starter over being a career backup.

His career rate of 7.1 yards per pass attempt ranks 13th percentile.

His 3.0 touchdown-to-interception rate is at the 66th percentile but is heavily influenced by his unsustainable efficiency in 2024.

After a class-high 10.3% touchdown rate on third downs last season, he had a class-low 1% rate this season.

After a class-high 23.8% touchdown rate in the red zone in 2024, he was at 11.1% this season.

Carson Beck, Miami

Rookie Age: 23.8

Beck has the physical profile (6-foot-5 and 233 pounds) and experience as a three-year starter, which are going to keep the lights on for him in April to be selected in a spot with the potential to play sooner than later.

Beck has made a class-high 55 appearances over six seasons.

His first year as a starter was his best, which makes him tougher to gauge.

As a 21-year-old starter in 2023, Beck completed 72.4% of his passes for 9.5 yards per pass attempt.

A UCL injury marred his 2024 season.

He threw for more touchdowns (28) than he did in 2023 (24), but took efficiency hits in every other area.

This past season with Miami, Beck got back on track by matching his career-best 72.4% completion rate with 30 touchdowns.

For his career, his 69.5% completion rate is 96th percentile, while his 8.4 yards per pass attempt is 75th percentile.

Some handholding aided that production.

25.2% of Beck’s passes at Miami were at or behind the line of scrimmage, which was the second-highest rate of this class.

24.9% of his passes were screens, the highest rate of this class.

Beck also threw a class-high 13 touchdowns on throws of 20 or more yards downfield last season, but when he was pushing the ball, he was more prone to turnovers.

Beck threw 12 interceptions in each of his final two seasons.

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

2026 Tier 3 Rookie Quarterbacks

After the questionable Tier 2 grouping, we have a short tier of players who are more “fun” from the range of quarterbacks who are longer shots to be sustainable NFL starters.

This two-person tier features players with greater fantasy appeal through their legs.

Even if passing limitations cap their long-term ability to start games, when they do find the field, they are at least capable of producing points via rushing.

Taylen Green, Arkansas

Rookie Age: 23.9

Green is the definitive throwback “Konami” quarterback of this draft class.

He has a rare athletic profile (6-foot-6 and 227 pounds) and came away from the NFL Combine by registering a 99th-percentile physical profile grade on my end by running a 4.37 40-yard dash with a 43.5-inch vertical.

Those were both records for the position at face value, without any adjustments for size.

Green backed that up on the field with an 89th percentile rushing profile, rushing for 45.4 yards per game over his career to go along with 35 rushing scores.

One thing we always talk about with mobile passers is that it matters in a vacuum when you are starting NFL games, but if you are going to continue to start NFL games, you have to be an effective passer and win from the pocket.

That is where all of the questions come from for Green.

His final season yards per pass attempt average (8.3) is 56th percentile, but the 1.7 touchdown-to-interception rate is 14th percentile, while his 60.7% completion rate is 27th percentile.

Green had the highest turnover-worthy throw rate (5.3%) in this class.

When pressured, Green was highly ineffective as a passer.

Under pressure, he completed a class-low 36.8% of his passes for 4.9 yards per attempt (second to last) and a class-worst 7.8% turnover-worth play rate.

22.7% of Green’s pressures were credited as his own doing, which was the second-highest rate in the class.

On the surface, Green looks like a discounted version of Anthony Richardson.

He will be drafted based on his athletic traits, but he will not carry nearly the same draft investment as Richardson.

On the one hand, that can allow Green to develop more at the next level, rather than being thrown into the deep end and having his passing shortcomings exposed early on.

In SuperFlex formats, Green is going to offer more upside for investment than just about any other pick outside of the first round of those rookie drafts.

On the other hand, that adds some volatility to when Green does start in the NFL, while prospects with this poor level of passing measurables rarely turn things around at the next level.

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

Rookie Age: 24.5

Pavia has one of the most complete profiles of the dual-threat passers in this draft.

Pavia has four seasons of experience between New Mexico State and Vanderbilt.

He is coming off his best passing season, completing 70.6% of his passes (89th percentile) for 9.4 yards per pass attempt (86th percentile) with 29 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

Pavia also rushed for 862 yards and 10 touchdowns.

The question marks for Pavia arise from being a much older prospect and having his best passing season at an older point in his career.

Before 2025, he had not completed more than 60.4% of his passes in a season with a high mark of 8.1 yards per pass attempt.

He can create with his legs, but his shorter size (5-foot-10) does emphasize having cleaner pockets to work from, something that is harder to bank on in the NFL.

This shows up in his profile, even in his best collegiate season.

Pavia averaged a class-high 10.7 yards per pass attempt from a clean pocket this season, but 5.5 Y/A when pressured (13th).

It is rare to see a quarterback of his size win as a passer in the NFL, especially given the current defensive meta, which forces passers to win consistently in the middle of the field.

Whenever Pavia does find the field, however, he will use his legs via designed runs or scrambling.

He has a 92nd-percentile career rushing profile, rushing for 3,094 yards and 31 touchdowns over his college career.

Pavia scrambled on 11.2% of his dropbacks in 2025, the second-highest rate in this class.

2026 Tier 4 Rookie Quarterbacks

• Cole Payton, North Dakota State, Rookie Age: 23.8
• Haynes King, Georgia Tech, Rookie Age: 23.9
• Joey Aguilar, Tennessee, Rookie Age: 25.2
• Joe Fagnano, Connecticut, Rookie Age: 26.4
• Behren Morton, Texas Tech, Rookie Age: 23.9
• Luke Altmyer, Illinois, Rookie Age: 23.9
• Sawyer Robertson, Baylor, Rookie Age: 23.6
• Jalon Daniels, Kansas, Rookie Age: 23.8

We are into the back end of the position.

No one here is expected to be drafted until Day 3 of the NFL Draft, which makes them extremely tough bets in rookie drafts.

There will be players here who will inevitably start games, but we are not projected as sustainable starters in this range.

Cole Payton is the longer shot in having solid draft investment, but he has the requisite size (6-foot-3 and 232 pounds) and combination of passing and rushing output to keep the lights on if he does find his way on a roster where he can compete for playing time at some point.

Payton has 31 career rushing touchdowns and led this class with an 18% scramble rate in 2025.

The rub is that he only has one season as a starter at a small school, playing in a system designed to elevate his passing production.

Playing in a system designed for Payton to use his legs and take shots downfield, Payton averaged a gaudy class-high 12.3 yards per pass attempt.

Payton averaged 3.33 seconds from snap to throw, the highest of this class.

That is just not a sustainable approach to what he will be asked to do in the NFL.

Haynes King has a stellar rushing profile, but he needs significant development playing in NFL offenses.

King rushed for 37 touchdowns at Georgia Tech, with double-digit scores in each of the past three seasons.

In a run-first scheme, he was just not asked to do a lot as a passer.

King averaged 7.5 air yards per throw (2nd lowest in the class).

He threw a class-high 25.5% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.

When blitzed, King averaged a class-low 6.5 yards per pass attempt.

In the red zone, King has a class-low completion rate of 41.3%.

Could Joe Fagnano be this year’s Tyler Shough?

Fagnano is a rare seven-year player who will be 26 years old as a rookie.

Fagnano threw 28 touchdowns to only 1 interception this past season at UConn, giving him 48 touchdowns to 5 interceptions over the past two seasons.

Despite playing in seven seasons, Fagnano only logged 25 career starts during his time at Maine and UConn.

Shough was taken at pick 40.

Unlike Shough, Fagnano is carrying next to no draft buzz or physical traits pushing his stock, giving him little runway for forced playing time.

Jalon Daniels averaged a class-low 4.8 yards per pass attempt under pressure and a class-high 12.9% interception rate in the red zone.

2026 Rookie Quarterback Fantasy Football Rankings