Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie quarterback tiers for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.
Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.
Now that the Combine has passed, we have a full picture of the athletic data on this incoming quarterback class.
That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.
The quarterback position for fantasy is the one that has the most significant difference in terms of success at the position when compared to “real” football.
Scouting and analyzing how collegiate passers will translate to the NFL has been an ongoing battle that has suffered more losses than wins.
The good news is that we are not selecting these passers with the real-life ramifications that an NFL franchise faces when a player evaluation is missed.
We also have the benefit of knowing which quarterback archetypes can access fantasy upside and adjust accordingly.
This class does not have a wealth of mobility paired with passing production.
With SuperFlex and 2QB formats rising in popularity and adding relevance to the position, the top of the position has become more pertinent in Dynasty Rookie Drafts.
That boosts the quarterbacks who could have floor capability.
However, that later bucket of passers who rely solely on passing production to create fantasy points has minimal value.
It is mainly replaceable in formats requiring you to start one player at the position.
While the position continues to grow, until formats that allow multiple starting quarterbacks to become the industry standard, the quarterback position remains a supply-and-demand game that favors suppressing incoming rookies, since so many fantasy leagues still start one quarterback.
This quarterback class continues a soft runout for quarterback prospects.
The 2024 draft class had six quarterbacks selected in the opening 12 picks, but it has been the standout over recent seasons.
In 2025, we had two first-round quarterbacks.
In 2023, we had three.
In 2022, only one quarterback was selected in the first 70 picks, and he (Kenny Pickett) was selected 20th overall.
This class has only one quarterback locked into front-end draft capital.
This quarterback group is marked by one primary asset that we know will be the first selection of the draft, and then several question marks.
Jump To:
- Tier 1 Rookie Quarterbacks
- Tier 2 Rookie Quarterbacks
- Tier 3 Rookie Quarterbacks
- Tier 4 Rookie Quarterbacks
- Fantasy Football Rankings
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2026 Tier 1 Rookie Quarterbacks
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Rookie Age*: 22.9
*Age on 9/1/26
The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner is where this draft will kick off.
Mendoza transferred to Indiana after two seasons at Cal, where he and the team reeled off a 16-0 season and a National Championship.
After throwing 30 passing touchdowns over his two seasons at Cal, Mendoza threw 41 passing touchdowns last season.
The former 3-star recruit improved his completion percentage and yards per pass attempt average in all three seasons in college.
His final season completion percentage (72%) ranks 94th percentile, while his touchdown to interception rate (41 to 6) ranks 92nd percentile, and his 9.3 yards per pass attempt sits 84th percentile among all prospects since 2000.
Mendoza’s calling cards are that he has prototypical size (6-foot-5 and 236 pounds) and plays on schedule with accuracy.
A class-high 79% of his throws were on target in 2025.
The seasoning for Mendoza is that he played his best in high-leverage situations.
On 139 career dropbacks in the red zone, Mendoza threw only 1 interception while taking 7 sacks.
This past season at Indiana, Mendoza took 69 dropbacks in the red zone, throwing 26 passing touchdowns with 0 interceptions and taking 2 sacks.
On third and fourth downs, Mendoza had a class-high 75.3% on-target throw rate and a class-high 14.7% touchdown rate.
Mendoza was ripping the ball downfield in those spots, too, averaging 10.9 yards per throw downfield on third and fourth downs, which was second in this class.
The nits to pick with Mendoza entering the NFL are how he will perform in a more challenging environment and how he will adapt his game to the current NFL.
There will be some who ask about how his offensive environment at the college level was perfectly in tune with his strengths.
Mendoza had the lowest drop rate in this class (2.2%).
Mendoza benefited from a heavy RPO offense predicated on a high rate of throws outside the numbers and into traffic.
23.4% of his dropbacks and 25.4% of his pass attempts last season were on RPO calls, by far the highest rates of this class.
The next-closest quarterback in both departments was Mark Gronowski of Iowa, who had a 16.3% RPO dropback rate and 16.4% of his pass attempts on those play calls.
Mendoza only threw 55.2% of his passes over the middle of the field (12th in this class).
If you look at the current state of the NFL, we have seen a spike in more condensed formations and a continued spike in playing under center, turning your back to the defense, and using traditional play action.
That has increased relevancy, knowing that we have close to 100% certainty that Mendoza will be selected first overall by the Raiders, who just hired Klint Kubiak as their head coach.
In the past two seasons with the Seahawks and Saints, Kubiak’s passers have had under-center rates of 54.8% (2nd in the league) and 42.5% (5th).
Over his three collegiate seasons, Mendoza has had only six dropbacks under center.
While that does take a step of faith in transitioning to the NFL, Kubiak has elevated both Derek Carr and Sam Darnold, prospects who offer a manageable bar of expectations.
Despite playing in a heavy RPO scheme, Mendoza did make big-time throws.
Only 13.9% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage (3rd-lowest rate in the class).
Only 14.4% of his throws were 20 or more yards downfield (10th), but he had the highest on-target throw rate (54.5%) on those passes.
Even if you are factoring in that his infrastructure of systems and surrounding talent accentuated those characteristics, Mendoza did everything he was asked to a high degree.
Mendoza was also battle-tested due to his conference and postseason run.
On 303 dropbacks against Power Conference opponents, Mendoza led this class in completion rate (71.9%), yards per pass attempt (9.3), and touchdown rate (10.6%).
He had five games against top 10 defenses last season (Oregon twice, Iowa, Ohio State, and Miami).
Ohio State and Miami did make Mendoza work in both games, but overall, he completed 65.3% of his passes for 8.3 Y/A with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
That quality schedule did give us a sample of Mendoza playing under pressure, which showcased some of the limitations we could see at the next level when the pass rush ramps up.
Under pressure against Ohio State and Miami, Mendoza was 9 of 16 (56.3%) for 93 yards (5.8 Y/A) with 0 touchdowns.
Kept clean in those games, he was 22 of 34 (64.7%) for 316 yards (9.3 Y/A).
At the end of the day, we are fully aware that Mendoza can have a high floor.
The questions (particularly for fantasy) are about his ceiling.
Mendoza has the profile as a weekly QB2 for fantasy who can moonlight as a QB1 during spike weeks and finish as a back-end QB1 in cumulative scoring.
From a modeling perspective, the closest comparison for Mendoza that I have is Sam Bradford.
The one thing Mendoza does have in his back pocket compared to the QB2 pocket passer group for fantasy is that he is not a complete zero in the running game.
Mendoza is not a run-first passer, but he is the 53rd percentile in career rushing output.
He had a 7.7% scramble rate last season, which was seventh in this class.
I don’t believe Mendoza has the full creativity of a Brock Purdy when things are out of structure, but the top-down fantasy archetype for him is in the same ballpark as Purdy.
2026 Tier 2 Rookie Quarterbacks
After Mendoza, we have a huge fall off at the position, with no guarantee that we see another passer taken in the first round.
Tier 2 is filled with question marks, but this group will largely be selected at worst on Day 2 of the draft based on the potential upside.
At one point in their college careers, all of these passers were considered locks for the first round.
We should see all of these players given a chance to compete for opportunities early in their careers, based on that, even if they all take a significant step of faith in being reliable starters.
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