The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 8 matchup between the Texans and 49ers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 8 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Spread | -1.0 | ||
| 20.25 | Implied Total | 21.25 | ||
| 20.7 | 23 | Points/Gm | 21.2 | 21 |
| 19.7 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 14.7 | 1 |
| 68.7 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 60.3 | 19 |
| 59.7 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.0 | 9 |
| 5.3 | 18 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 23 |
| 5.3 | 15 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 6 |
| 41.58% | 20 | Rush% | 41.44% | 21 |
| 58.42% | 13 | Pass% | 58.56% | 12 |
| 42.58% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 42.82% | 17 |
| 57.42% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 57.18% | 16 |
- Houston is allowing a league-low 1.31 points per drive.
- The 49ers have scored on 43.1% of their drives (12th), but have a touchdown on 18.1% of their drives, 26th in the league.
- 41.9% of San Francisco's scoring plays (13 of 31) have been touchdowns, 31st in the league.
- The Texans average 1.86 points per drive, 24th in the league.
- Houston running backs have a league-low 28.5% success rate per attempt.
- The 49ers average a league-high 14.4 plays of 10 or more yards per game.
- The 49ers have converted 47.5% of their third downs, second in the league.
- San Francisco has converted 12.1% more third downs than their opponents, the best differential in the league.
- Houston has converted 30.7% of their third downs, ahead of only the Titans (28.3%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud: Stroud found no success on Monday night in Seattle, completing 46.9% of his passes for 4.7 yards per pass attempt.
We entered last week questioning whether Houston had found some answers early in the season, or if it had just taken advantage of soft matchups against Tennessee and a depleted Baltimore defense.
It appears like the latter.
To compound matters, we do not know if Stroud will have Nico Collins available this week.
Collins left Monday night with a concussion.
We did see Marvin Harrison Jr. clear protocol and play the following week, but the Monday game casts a shadow that Collins will be back in time for Sunday.
We also do not know the status of Christian Kirk, who is working through his second hamstring injury of the season.
With a potentially limited arsenal of pass catchers in one of the lower totals of the weekend, Stroud is a QB2.
The silver lining for Stroud finding upside here is that the San Francisco defense is also missing some key pieces.
Since losing Nick Bosa, San Francisco is 27th in pressure rate (29.2%).
Bryce Huff has led the team in sacks (5) and pressures (24).
Huff suffered a hamstring injury on Sunday night and is expected to miss multiple weeks.
San Francisco still held up on Sunday night, but on top of losing Fred Warner for the season, they are short-handed and playing a lot of young players in the front seven.
Before facing Michael Penix on Sunday, San Francisco had allowed 11.1 yards per pass attempt to Baker Mayfield with an empty receiver room (19.6 fantasy points) and an 8.3 Y/A to Mathew Stafford (25.6 points).
Mac Jones: We are expecting Jones to make another start this weekend based on early reports this week surrounding Brock Purdy.
Should anything change, we will adjust accordingly.
Jones is a back-end QB2 this week.
Through five starts now this season, Jones has been the QB17 or lower three times, which includes the past two weeks facing aggressive defenses in Atlanta (5.2 points) and Tampa Bay (11.2).
When it comes to Jones this season, we have been targeting him against teams that do not put pressure on the quarterback, something we do not have here.
When Jones has been pressured, he is averaging 4.5 yards per pass attempt (25th), 8.3 yards per completion (33rd), with a 2.1% touchdown rate (22nd) and a 20% sack rate (19th).
From a clean pocket, Jones is averaging 8.1 Y/A (11th) and 11.4 yards per completion (8th), but only a 3.4% touchdown rate (26th).
Houston is fifth in pressure rate (42%).
When they have generated pressure, the Texans have allowed a league-low 33.8% completion rate and 4.9 yards per pass attempt (5th).
The Texans have allowed 8.6 passing points per game, the fewest in the league.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 8 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Vikings @ Chargers | Thursday Night Football |
| Dolphins @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Colts | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Commanders @ Chiefs | Monday Night Football |