The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Bears vs. Falcons Week 6 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 6 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 26.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 23.8 | 13 | Points/Gm | 23.8 | 13 |
| 19.2 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 24.4 | 21 |
| 73.2 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 62.0 | 15 |
| 50.2 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.4 | 26 |
| 5.4 | 16 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 9 |
| 6.2 | 30 | Def. Yards/Play | 5 | 9 |
| 50.0% | 3 | Rush% | 53.2% | 1 |
| 50.0% | 30 | Pass% | 46.8% | 32 |
| 43.4% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 32.4% | 1 |
| 56.6% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 67.6% | 32 |
- Atlanta averages a league-high 86.6 more rushing yards than its opponents.
- The Bears average 77.2 more rushing yards per game than their opponents, second in the league.
- 28.6% of Chicago's touchdowns have been passing, 30th in the league.
- 33.3% of Atlanta's touchdowns have been passing, 29th in the league.
- The Bears have converted a league-low 42.9% (9 of 21) of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.
- Chicago is allowing opponents to convert 26% (13 of 50) of third downs, 2nd in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bears vs. Falcons Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Caleb Williams
Williams is expected to play Sunday for the first time since he suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2.
It will be interesting to see if Williams has any mobility limitations.
Williams had a 14.3% scramble rate in the first two weeks of the season, second in the league.
More importantly, Williams not only uses his legs for yardage. He also rarely plays from the pocket.
He loves to extend plays and buy time.
In Weeks 1 and 2, only 58.6% of his dropbacks remained in the pocket, the lowest rate in the league.
In 2025, that rate was 69.2%, 31st out of 33 qualifiers.
Last year, Williams had the longest time to throw (3.09 seconds from the snap).
The first two weeks, that was 3.29 seconds.
The positive news is that this could be a positive if he has to play from the pocket.
When Williams has stayed in the pocket since the start of last season, he has averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt (15th) with 21 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
Outside of the pocket since 2025, Williams has completed 43.2% of his passes (29th) for 5.3 Y/A (22nd) with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
Atlanta should test his ability to navigate or flee the pocket.
The Falcons are third in pressure rate (44.3%).
That said, the Ravens frustrated this defense a bit on Sunday night, mitigating the pass rush with a quick passing game.
The Falcons had a season-low 35% pressure rate on Sunday night despite blitzing a season-high 34.2% of the time.
Tyler Huntley averaged 4.7 air yards per attempt, the lowest rate against Atlanta this season.
Only 16.7% of Huntley's passes went 10 or more yards downfield.
Previously, Atlanta had faced a 38.2% rate.
I would be surprised if Williams operated in a strictly similar capacity because that is not his game, but that is one way to neutralize a pass rush.
Williams has been sensitive to pressure.
Under Ben Johnson, Williams has completed 40.1% of his passes under pressure (29th) for 5.6 Y/A (24th).
Chicago has a higher-end team total, so I want to price in upside for Williams while also accounting for any limitations he has returning to the lineup and the matchup.
He is more of a higher-end QB2 for me this week, but no real pushback if you are slotting him back into 1QB lineups.
Michael Penix
Penix left last week's game with a rib injury.
Early reports are optimistic he will play this week, but we will of course follow him throughout the week.
If Tua Tagovailoa should start, reevaluate here at the end of the week.
We want Penix to play not for himself, but because he brought the core pieces of this offense to life after we hit rock bottom over the opening two weeks.
If Penix can play, he is a QB2 who has upside in a potentially high-scoring game environment.
Penix himself has been QB21, QB22, and QB17 in his three starts.
He has averaged a league-high 9.3 yards per pass attempt since returning in Week 3, but much of his efficiency is married to the run game.
In his first two starts, Atlanta threw the ball 11% and 11% below expectations.
Penix threw for 10.2 Y/A and 11.2 Y/A in those games.
On Sunday night, Atlanta needed to throw more and were 2.4% over expectations.
Penix only threw for 7.5 Y/A.
If you can disrupt Penix from playing in rhythm, he has cratered.
When pressured this season, he's 6 of 20 (30%) for 6.7 Y/A.
We are still trying to sort out what we have with this Chicago defense, but they will not have Montez Sweat, who was suspended for two games.
In Weeks 2, 3, and 4, they played Carson Wentz in the rain, Jalen Hurts and the stumbling Philadelphia offense, and then Geno Smith in a game where the Jets ran 32 total plays.
Last week, they were awful against Green Bay, allowing Jordan Love to complete 80.6% of his passes for 367 yards, 11.8 yards per pass attempt, and 2 touchdowns.
One area where Chicago has struggled is against opponents who want to throw from heavier sets.
Opponents throwing out of 2+TE sets against the Bears have completed 77.8% (28 of 36) of their passes (31st) for 15.1 yards per pass attempt (32nd) and a first down or touchdown on 52.8% of those passes (31st).
Outside those heavy sets, the Bears have allowed a 58.8% completion rate (4th) for 6.4 Y/A (12th), with a first down or touchdown on 26.6% of those attempts (4th).
Atlanta has thrown out of 12 personnel on 25.5% of passes (7th) and out of 13 personnel on 11% (5th).
Penix has thrown for 9.4 Y/A with multiple tight ends on the field since returning to the lineup, fifth in the league.
Bears vs. Falcons Fantasy Running Back Preview
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LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 6 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 6 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Seahawks @ Broncos | Thursday Night Football |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Buccaneers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Packers | Sunday Night Football |
| Commanders @ 49ers | Monday Night Football |