The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears Saturday afternoon Christmas Eve game.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8.5 | Spread | 8.5 | ||
| 24.5 | Implied Total | 16 | ||
| 27.5 | 4 | Points/Gm | 20.7 | 19 |
| 17.9 | 2 | Points All./Gm | 25.6 | 30 |
| 65.8 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 59.6 | 24 |
| 62.4 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.3 | 5 |
| 6.1 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 15 |
| 5.2 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 30 |
| 40.61% | 20 | Rush% | 58.15% | 1 |
| 59.39% | 13 | Pass% | 41.85% | 32 |
| 38.33% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 51.42% | 32 |
| 61.67% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 48.58% | 1 |
- Buffalo games are 0-7 towards the under on the road this season, the only team remaining to have all of their road games fall below the game total.
- The Bears have allowed a league-high 6.1 yards per play since Week 6.
- Over that span, Chicago is allowing a league-high 8.4 yards per play on third down.
- Over the same period, Buffalo is allowing 6.8 yards per play on third down, ahead of only the Bears.
- 60.0% (24-of-40) of the touchdowns against the Bears have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- 71.4% of the scoring plays allowed by the Bears have been touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bears are averaging 1.7 fewer yards per passing play than their opponent, the worst differential in the league.
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen had his highest-scoring game of the season on Saturday, throwing for 304 yards and four passing touchdowns while adding on 77 yards rushing. It was his 12th QB1 scoring week in 14 games while his ninth week as a top-five scorer at the position.
There was a lot of talk leading into that game Saturday about the weather and we are here again at the start of this week. While the concern last week for heavy snow missed the actual game until some fell late on Saturday, this week is calling for snow and heavy wind following a projected winter storm.
We will follow that as the week unfolds, but Allen’s legs make up for a lot. Prior to Saturday, Allen’s legs provide him outs due to weather issues, but it is at least worth putting in this space that In the eight games that Allen has thrown for 250 or more yards, he has been the average QB3 in weekly scoring (29.3 points per game). In the other six games this season, he has thrown for 223 yards or fewer in each game and has been the average QB10 (19.4 points per game). Allen has been the QB12 or lower in three of those games.
Both averages are QB1 scorers and we are locking in Allen where we have him, just highlighting the gap that we do need some tangible passing stats to access the high ceiling Allen can provide.
If we get closer to the game and weather is not a concern to the degree it is today, this is easily a smash spot for Allen. The Bears have allowed a top-six scoring quarterback in four of their past six games.