Broncos vs. Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Divisional Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Divisional Round matchup between the Broncos and Bills.

Find a breakdown of every Divisional Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Game Overview

The Divisional Round kicks off with a rarity this early in the postseason.

As noted in the intro article to this week’s games, this is only the second time (and first time in the AFC) since the NFL went to 32 teams in 2002 that a No. 1 seed is an underdog in the Divisional Round coming off a first-round bye.

The first was the 2017 Eagles, who went on to beat the No. 6 seed Falcons 15-10.

These teams did not meet this season but did meet in the first round of the playoffs last season, with the Bills winning 31-7 in Buffalo.

That game was tight and 13-7 until late in the third quarter, but Buffalo did not let Denver off the mat in Bo Nix’s first career playoff game.

Denver managed only 224 total yards of offense in that game, holding the ball for only 18 minutes and 17 seconds.

This year’s matchup features a Denver team that is 14-3, matching the franchise's most wins in a season, set in 1998.

The Broncos were the league’s best team in tight circumstances.

They led the NFL with 11 wins in one-score games.

Denver trailed in 15 games this season, tied for the seventh-most in the league.

They won eight games this season in which their opponent scored first, the most in the NFL.

They won five games this season when trailing at halftime (second to Chicago), and had five wins when trailing in the fourth quarter (also second).

The Denver offense was a mixed bag and an inconsistent unit.

They finished 10th in yards per game (342.6) and 14th in offensive points per game (22.8), but they rank 17th in points per drive (2.07) and 18th in touchdown rate per drive (22.9%).

The Broncos punted on 39.9% of their possessions, which was 28th in the league this season.

37.8% of their possessions did not gain at least one first down, 26th in the league.

25% of their possessions were three plays and then a punt, 29th in the league.

Where Denver was good on offense was not beating themselves.

Denver only allowed 2.2 plays per game that resulted in a sack or turnover, which is third in the league.

That allowed their defense to put them in a position to keep games tight and pull out games late.

The Denver defense is first in the league in success rate (63.6%) and allows a league-low 4.5 yards per play.

They have allowed 1.62 points per drive (3rd) with a touchdown on a league-low 15.2% of drives.

The Denver offense punted a lot this season, but their defense also forced a punt on a league-high 47.1% of opponent possessions.

Denver allowed a 33.8% conversion rate on third downs (2nd) and a league-low 42.6% touchdown rate in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on 20 of 47 trips opponents had in that area of the field.

Denver will have its hands full with an experienced Buffalo offense coming off a 27-24 win in Jacksonville last week.

The Bills are third in the league in points per drive (2.66) with a touchdown on 33.9% of their possessions (2nd).

They have converted 45.1% of their third downs (45.1%) and 67.6% of their red zone trips into touchdowns (2nd).

Last week in Jacksonville, Buffalo was 7 of 14 on third downs and 2 of 2 on fourth downs while scoring a touchdown on all three of their trips to the red zone.

When these teams met a year ago in the postseason, Buffalo put up 471 yards, the third-most yardage Denver has allowed in a game over the past two seasons.

The Bills converted 53.3% (8 of 15) of their third downs in that matchup, the fourth-highest rate Denver has allowed over the past two seasons, but Denver held Buffalo to a 20% (1 of 5 ) touchdown rate on their red zone trips.

Quarterback

Josh Allen: Allen carried this offense last week to his eighth career playoff victory.

As a passer, Allen was 28 of 35 (80%) for 273 yards (7.8 Y/A) with a touchdown, not throwing an interception, and taking one sack.

As a rusher, he had 11 runs for 33 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He registered a position-high 30.2 fantasy points, his sixth 30-point fantasy outing in his postseason career.

No player has more since he entered the league.

Allen is now averaging 26.7 fantasy points per game over 14 postseason starts.

Allen came into the game dealing with a foot injury and was banged up in the game with multiple trips to the medical tent with hand and leg ailments.

Allen kept playing through all of those.

We came into last week anticipating that Buffalo would put more on Allen’s shoulders based on the postseason and the matchup against the best run defense in the league, and that is what happened.

Buffalo had a 62.9% dropback rate (well above their 54.8% season-long rate).

Allen completed 80% of his passes, his second-highest rate in a game this season and the second-best mark of his postseason career.

Denver is fifth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.351), allowing a 58.8% completion rate (2nd), 6.3 yards per attempt (2nd), and a 3.3% touchdown rate (2nd).

They are ninth in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (15.1 per game).

None of that mattered a year ago,

That 80% completion on Sunday jumped Allen’s 76.9% completion rate when these teams met in the playoffs last year.

In that game, Allen was 20 of 26 for 272 yards with 2 touchdowns, rushing 8 times for 46 yards (25.5 fantasy points).

That was the most success Allen has had against a Vance Joseph-led defense.

In his first two games against Joseph, Allen posted 5.8 Y/A and 6.8 Y/A with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.

Both were losses, with the latter game coming against Joseph while he was with Denver in 2023.

Allen was 15 of 26 (57.7%) for 177 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions in that game.

Denver will have to do a better job of getting to Allen in the rematch.

They only sacked Allen twice, despite blitzing him 37.5% of the time.

Allen was 10 of 12 (83.3%) for 141 yards (11.8 Y/A) with a touchdown when Denver blitzed him in that game.

This season, Denver is third in the league in pressure rate (41.8%) and third in blitz rate (31.7%).

They may want to adjust their approach in this rematch, and their ability to get to Allen without blitzing could be the pivotal component of this part of the matchup.

Denver is third in the NFL in pressure rate (39.6%) and third in sack rate (11.1%) without blitzing.

Allen (like many quarterbacks) has had trouble this year compared to previous seasons against high-end pass-rushing defenses that can get home without blitzing.

The Eagles (40%), Patriots in Week 5 (42.4%), Texans (47.4%), and Browns (47.4%) were all able to pressure Allen on 40% or more of his dropbacks without blitzing.

Allen only averaged 9.5 passing points per game in those games and did not throw a touchdown pass in three of those four games.

Allen is not a stranger to facing a high rate of man coverage, as Buffalo has a limited group of pass catchers paired with opponents who emphasize slowing down the run game.

No team faces eight-plus men in the box at a higher rate per rush than Buffalo (53.6%).

Allen has faced man coverage on 32.2% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league.

That has given him more trouble this season, given his high-end overall output.

Allen has completed 61% of his passes against man coverage (4th in the league), but his 6.9 yards per pass attempt are 12th, while his 5.7% touchdown rate is 27th.

For comparison, Allen averages 8.6 yards per pass attempt against zone coverages (fifth) with a 4% touchdown rate (2nd).

Of course, you still have to contend with Allen’s ability to produce on the ground.

As good as Denver has been this season again defensively, they are not without a few blemishes.

They allowed spike weeks to Trevor Lawrence (31.2 points), Jaxson Dart (28.4 points), Marcus Mariota (23.3 points), and Daniel Jones (22.8 points).

All of those players were able to produce as effective passers while also possessing rushing ability.

Bo Nix: Nix was up-and-down in his second NFL season.

He led the NFL in pass attempts (612), but completed 63.4% of his passes (23rd) for 6.4 yards per attempt (28th).

The only playoff quarterback with a lower yards per pass attempt this season was Bryce Young (6.3 Y/A).

Nix averaged 10.1 yards per completion (28th), while 32% of his passes resulted in a first down or touchdown (25th).

This passing game was once again predicated on the short area.

Nix averaged 7.3 air yards per attempt (24th).

25.3% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage (27th) while only 28.1% were throws 10 or more yards downfield (30th).

While those are all lackluster rankings, Nix did do some positive things.

He was one of the best quarterbacks at avoiding negative plays.

Only 13.5% of Nix’s dropbacks lost 1.0 EPA or worse, second in the league.

He also led the NFL with seven game-winning drives.

For fantasy purposes, Nix only had four weeks as a top-10 scorer.

The positive spin is that all four of those came at home.

Three of those were in clear favorable spots against Dallas, Cincinnati, and the Giants.

The other was against Green Bay, providing some potential in a tougher spot here.

Buffalo is second in passing points allowed this season (10.2 per game).

They have allowed a 59.7% completion rate (4th), 6.3 yards per pass attempt (3rd), but a 4.5% touchdown rate (15th).

Last week, Buffalo limited Trevor Lawrence to 6.9 yards per pass attempt with 2 interceptions.

It was Lawrence’s lowest yards per pass attempt in a game since Week 10.

He did still throw 3 touchdown passes, however, which aligns with the metrics listed above.

Nix had plenty of problems when these teams met in the playoffs last season, completing 13 of 22 passes (59.1%) for 144 yards and a touchdown and rushing 4 times for 43 yards (14.1 fantasy points).

That was his first career playoff start on the road, however, so take a grain of salt over applying anything from that matchup here.

Buffalo is entering the week banged up defensively.

Buffalo was without Maxwell Hairston and Terrel Bernard in the playoff opener.

Shaq Thompson has been better than Bernard to close the season, but Buffalo also lost Jordan Poyer for this week to a hamstring injury.

In a short week on the road, they may be without two starters in the secondary.

Buffalo has already lost Taylor Rapp for the season at their other safety spot.

Poyer is expected to miss Saturday, which should activate Damar Hamlin to play alongside rookie Jordan Hancock and Cole Bishop.

Hancock allowed a team-high 63 yards in coverage after entering the game on Sunday.

The Bills also have Darnell Savage as an option, whom they added to the roster in Week 17.

Savage was not active last week.

We will follow Hairston’s availability.

Tre’Davious White filled in for Hairston last week and turned back the clock, forcing 3 pass breakups (1 leading to the game-clinching interception) and allowing only 1 catch in coverage for 3 yards.

Running Back

More Divisional Round Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: