Falcons vs. Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 6

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 6 matchup between the Falcons and Bills on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 6 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen: Allen is the QB1 in points per game through five weeks.

He has completed at least 70% of his passes in four of the opening five weeks, throwing multiple touchdowns in four games.

He is also rushing for 42.4 yards per game with 3 scores on the ground.

Allen is the best fantasy asset at the position and a front-end QB1.

This game will be a solid one to gauge the growth of this Atlanta defense.

Coming out of their bye, the Falcons are ninth in pressure rate (39.5%).

They are third in passing points allowed per game (10.0), allowing a league-low 57.7% completion rate and 5.8 yards per pass attempt (2nd).

They do have a game against Baker Mayfield under their belt, but the other passers that they have faced are J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, and Marcus Mariota.

Atlanta is running a high rate of Cover 3, using it at the second-highest rate in the league (49.5% of defensive snaps).

Against Cover 3, Allen has completed 30 of 39 passes (76.9%) for 357 yards (9.2 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

If the Atlanta pass rush is real, that will be their key to slowing down Allen as much as possible.

When pressured so far this season, Allen has completed 47.4% of his passes (24th) for 5.3 Y/A (21st) with a 50.3 rating (25th).

Kept clean, Allen has completed 78.1% of his passes (6th) for 8.9 Y/A (4th) and a 127.2 rating (4th).

Michael Penix: Penix had his best game of the early season before the bye, completing 20 of 26 passes for 313 yards and 2 touchdowns against Washington.

Hitting the bye on a high note was big, as Penix has only completed 62.4% of his passes (26th) over the opening month.

Penix has completed 5.1% fewer of his passes than expected, the fourth-lowest rate among quarterbacks.

Downfield passing has been his most significant area of concern.

Penix has completed 37.8% (17 of 45) of his throws 10 or more yards downfield, 28th in the league.

Penix is a QB2 in this matchup.

Buffalo has allowed a 39.8% completion rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield, fourth in the league.

Another potential problem area for Penix in this matchup is that the Atlanta offense is not using play-action at all.

Penix has used play action on 18.4% of his dropbacks, ahead of only Justin Fields (15.1%).

The Bills are allowing 6.0 yards per pass attempt on non-play action passes, fourth in the league.

In bulk, the Bills are allowing 11.1 passing points per game, sixth in the league.

Running Back

Bijan Robinson: Robinson has been incredible to open the season.

He leads the league with 146.0 yards from scrimmage per game, hitting triple-digits every week.

He has done that on 61.2% of his backfield touches, which ranks 20th among running backs.

Robinson has a 46.9% success rate on the ground (8th).

The Zac Robinson scheme has put Robinson in good spots.

Robinson has faced a heavy box (8-plus defenders) on only 18.8% of his runs, the lowest rate for any running back with 30 or more rushes.

If you are going to slow down Robinson, be prepared for a diet of outside zone runs.

60.9% of his rushes have been outside zone runs, the highest rate in the league.

Buffalo is allowing 5.2 yards per carry to running backs on outside zone runs, 27th in the league.

The Bills are 31st in explosive rushing yards allowed per game (93.4) and have allowed a run of 10 or more yards on a league-high 20.6% of the attempts they have faced.

If there is a silver lining to be found on the Buffalo side, they are expected to get Ed Oliver back this Monday.

Oliver has not played since the season opener, when he was the best Buffalo defender in that game by a wide margin.

Unfortunately, the Bills also lost Matt Milano again this past week, as he aggravated a pectoral injury that has kept him on and off the field to start the year. Sean McDermott referred to Milano as “week to week.”

The Bills are the favorites here to put Atlanta in catch-up mode potentially, but Robinson has multiple outs to deliver as an RB1.

If you do manage to slow down Robinson on the ground, you have to deal with him out of the backfield.

Robinson has a 17.7% target share, third at his position behind Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane.

Even with a bye week, Robinson is second among running backs in receiving yardage (270), trailing only McCaffrey.

James Cook: Cook was bottled up for the first time on Sunday, rushing 15 times for 49 yards.

Everyone runs into limited rushing games, but the disappointing element is that Cook did not have a reception to offer any other paths to make up for an inefficient rushing night.

Cook has not had more than 3 receptions in a game since Week 1.

His 9.4% target share is exactly the same as Rhamondre Stevenson at RB24.

He is too good out of the backfield not to be utilized at these early-season levels, but he had previously made up for things with hyper-efficient rushing and touchdown equity.

Sunday was his first game with a total of less than 100 yards, so we are going back to him as an RB1.

As was the case last week for an opponent facing Buffalo, we will find out some answers about this Atlanta run defense.

The Falcons currently allow 9.5 rushing points per game to backfields, ranking sixth in the league.

Only one running back has rushed for 60 yards in a game against them, but as noted earlier, their strength of schedule has not been particularly daunting.

Wide Receiver

Drake London: London went into the bye coming off a week catching 8 of 10 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown.

The interesting aspect of that spike week is that it coincided with Darnell Mooney leaving the game early (after completing 13 routes).

London’s two best weeks to open the year have been in a game with Mooney inactive and the other with him leaving early.

In those games, London has 35.7% and 38.5% of the team's targets.

In the two full games Mooney has played, London has 19% and 19.5% target shares.

This season, London has been targeted on 37.3% of his routes with Mooney off the field (36.1% of the team's targets).

In 2024, London was targeted on 40.9% of his routes with Mooney sidelined (42.2% of the team's targets).

With Mooney on the field last year, London was still highly utilized with a target on 27.3% of his routes (27.6% of the team's targets), but when you have a quarterback who had had accuracy issues to start his career, stacking front-end target opportunities goes a long way, while reducing that to any degree offers more fragility.

Mooney’s status is uncertain this week, so we will have to follow practice reports to see how he is progressing.

If Mooney misses, London has more security as a WR1 with a gaudy target share.

If Mooney returns, we are giving London more runway to produce as a fringe WR1, but these are things to monitor with Mooney returning and Penix still showcasing growing pains.

Buffalo has a widespread defense, but they are fourth in the league in the rate of Cover 2 this season (21.3% of snaps).

London has been targeted on 35% of his routes with 3.90 yards per route against those looks.

As a whole, the Bills are 25th in points allowed to WR1 targets (16.6 per game), allowing solid outings to Zay Flowers (7-143-1), Tyreek Hill (5-49-1), and Stefon Diggs (10-146-0), outside of lighter games to Garrett Wilson (4-50-0) and Chris Olave (3-20-1).

Darnel Mooney: Mooney left Week 4 with a hamstring injury.

With Atlanta playing on Monday, there has been no official practice report at the time of writing to determine Mooney's availability for the start of the week.

If he does return, Mooney is a volatile WR4/FLEX best left for single-game DFS.

Mooney has had games of 2-20-0 (4 targets) and 4-44-0 (11 targets) in his full games.

Mooney has only been targeted on 7.1% of his routes against Cover 2, which tracks how he is utilized downfield.

In 2024, that rate was 11.8% of his routes against a Cover 2 defense.

Khalil Shakir: Shakir collected 6 of his 9 targets on Sunday night for 45 yards.

Shakir’s counting stats per game are a notch lower than a year ago, averaging 4.4 receptions (5.1 in 2024) for 47.0 yards per game (54.7 in 2024).

He is a floor-based WR3/FLEX with a larger boost in full-PPR formats.

There are some pulling matchup notes here for Shakir.

We highlighted the high rate of Cover 3 that Atlanta is running.

Against those looks, Shakir is second on the team with 21.1% of the targets and 3.47 yards per route.

Atlanta has opened the season strongly against slot receivers, allowing 7.2 points per game to those receivers (4th) with 0 touchdowns.

Keon Coleman: Coleman caught 4 of 7 targets for 23 yards and his second touchdown of the year on Sunday night.

We are still handling Coleman as a touchdown-or-bust FLEX at this point in his career.

He has not topped 45 yards in a game since Week 1.

Against those Cover 3 notes we mentioned, Coleman is fourth on the team in targets (15.8%).

Atlanta has allowed 7.7 yards per target to outside receivers (8th).

A.J. Terrell is also anticipated to return on Monday.

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid is off to the best of his career.

After catching all 6 of his targets for 108 yards on Sunday night, Kincaid leads all tight ends in yards per route (2.63).

He already has the most touchdowns of his career.

We do wish Kincaid were a full-time player and a better asset in the run game on a run-first team (59.9% route rate per dropback is TE26).

That usage has made him more fragile, ending weeks as TE4, TE17, TE4, TE19, and TE10.

As an upside TE1, this matchup aligns with the pros and cons of Kincaid in bulk.

When the Bills have seen those Cover 3 looks, Kincaid leads the team with 23.7% of the targets and 3.29 yards per route.

On the other hand, Atlanta has not allowed a touchdown to a tight end so far, allowing a league-low 53.3% catch rate and 4.6 yards per target (3rd).

Consider the quarterbacks and tight ends they have faced, as mentioned above.

Kyle Pitts: Pitts has also been up and down to start the year, closing weeks as TE7, TE18, TE20, and TE3.

His two best weeks also aligned with Mooney’s absence.

Pitts has been targeted on 20.7% of his routes with Mooney off the field, compared to 16.7% with him on the field.

If Mooney does miss, then that gives Pitts a little extra runway as a back-end TE1.

The Bills have allowed 7.5 yards per target (23rd) and a 6.7% touchdown rate (19th) to offer some matchup appeal on top of the expected absence of Milano.

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