The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Bills vs. Raiders Week 6 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 6 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Las Vegas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.0 | Spread | 5.0 | ||
| 29.25 | Implied Total | 24.25 | ||
| 32.8 | 1 | Points/Gm | 26.4 | 9 |
| 28.2 | 28 | Points All./Gm | 25.8 | 22 |
| 59.0 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 65.0 | 8 |
| 70.0 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.6 | 13 |
| 6.7 | 1 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 18 |
| 5.6 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 28 |
| 49.8% | 4 | Rush% | 42.2% | 19 |
| 50.2% | 29 | Pass% | 57.9% | 14 |
| 39.4% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 43.8% | 20 |
| 60.6% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 56.2% | 13 |
- The Raiders have a run of 10 or more yards on 5.8% of their attempts, 30th in the league.
- The Bills have a run of 10 or more yards on a league-high 19.0% of their attempts.
- The Bills have a gain of 20 or more yards on a league-high 14.2% of their passing plays.
- After allowing 1.13 points per drive the first two weeks of the year (5th in the league), the Raiders have allowed 3.0 points per drive since (30th).
- The Bills are allowing 2.71 points per drive, 27th in the league.
- The Bills are converting 50% of their third downs (26 of 52), 2nd in the NFL.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bills vs. Raiders Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Josh Allen
Allen delivered another big-game performance for gamers on Monday night, scoring 30.5 fantasy points.
Last week we noted that his rushing usage suggested the scare over his knee injury was likely overblown, and that played out on Monday.
Allen rushed 10 times for 121 yards and a touchdown.
That was his fourth career 100-yard rushing game.
Allen had a 28.6% scramble rate on Monday, the second-highest rate in his career.
That rushing output propelled his fantasy line because the Bills once again had a lighter passing game.
Allen was 12 of 19 (63.2%) for 210 yards with 1 touchdown and an interception.
After throwing 5 touchdowns in the opening two games, Allen has 2 passing touchdowns over the past three.
After games with 21.4 and 21.9 passing points to open the year, Allen has 26.7 total passing points over his past three games.
He is the QB25 in passing points per dropback (0.26) over that span.
Buffalo had a season-low 49.1% dropback rate.
Whether game-plan specific or due to the absences of D.J. Moore and Josh Palmer, they threw 9.5% fewer passes than expected.
Buffalo only had 146 team air yards on Monday, their fewest in a game this season.
With Moore and Palmer potentially out again this week (Buffalo has a Week 7 bye), we could see something similar.
That said, Buffalo has a team total just under 30 points, and the Raiders are sitting with a solid total themselves, which could set up another high-scoring game.
I do have some questions about the Raiders doing their part, but that puts Allen at the top of fantasy options because his ceiling tends to follow the game environment, as we covered last week.
Buffalo has allowed 29 or more points in four of five games this season.
In all four, he was a top-10 scorer and a top-three scorer in three.
Since 2020 (his breakout), Allen averages 22.7 fantasy points per game when his defense allows 24 or more points.
The Raiders have allowed 10 passing touchdowns in the past three games and are coming off allowing a QB1 overall week to Drake Maye (39.5 points).
The Raiders have also allowed rushing production to Malik Willis (39 yards and a touchdown), Tyler Shough (36 yards), and Maye (25 yards and a score).
Kirk Cousins
Cousins and the Raiders had a down week in New England, finishing as the QB19 (13.7 points).
The Raiders did bring in Fernando Mendoza for mop-up duty in a lopsided game, but we don't see any potential change from Cousins.
Cousins still threw for 8.7 yards per pass attempt, matching a season high.
But the passing game lacked consistency and couldn't finish drives.
Cousins had a season-low 38.7% success rate, and because the game script got out of hand, the Raiders used play action on a season-low 17.9% of dropbacks.
We have covered this for a few weeks, but when Cousins and this offense are operating on schedule and can use play action, he plays well.
When they haven't, things have looked rough.
Cousins was 5 of 5 for 61 yards (12.2 Y/A) with play action, and his 1 passing touchdown came on play action.
This season, Cousins has a 145.4 rating using play action, completing 75% of his passes (4th) for 9.9 Y/A (3rd) with 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Without using play action, Cousins has an 82.6 rating (21st), completing 63.2% of his passes (18th) for 6.7 Y/A (16th) with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
If Buffalo gets out ahead and pushes the Raiders out of their base offense, things can go sideways, as they did on Sunday.
We have also been waiting on a regression for Cousins in the touchdown department, and last week was the first week it popped up.
He is still second in the NFL in passing touchdowns (12), and his 7% touchdown rate is at a career high.
That said, the Raiders can push for points in this matchup.
Buffalo allows 21.8 passing points per game (31st), 7.4 yards per pass attempt (21st), and a 6.5% touchdown rate (26th).
They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of five games.
Buffalo pushes teams to score.
They have allowed only 99.0 passing yards per game in the first half (12th) and 6.3 Y/A (10th), but allow a league-high 172.0 passing yards per game with 8.1 Y/A (24th) in the second half.
Cousins is a strong QB2, and the matchup and game environment still give Cousins upside as a streaming option in 1QB formats, even with some volatility.
Bills vs. Raiders Fantasy Running Back Preview
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LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 6 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 6 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Seahawks @ Broncos | Thursday Night Football |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Buccaneers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Packers | Sunday Night Football |
| Commanders @ 49ers | Monday Night Football |