Texans vs. Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 12

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Texans and Bills on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen: Gamers got Super Josh Allen on Sunday as he took over the game against the Bucs.

Allen accounted for 6 offensive touchdowns, throwing 3 passing scores with 317 yards through the air.

He rushed for another 3 touchdowns with 40 yards on the ground.

He did have a pair of forced interceptions as a blemish to a near-perfect day, but this was his fourth regular-season fantasy game clearing 40 standard points (42.7) and the second-most fantasy points in a game for his career.

No quarterback has Allen’s scoring upside, which is what keeps him constantly in play as a front-end QB1.

You are riding with Allen in managed leagues whenever he suits up.

However, I doubt this is a spot where we get a repeat of “Super Josh.”

He is more of a QB1 than the overall QB1 this week.

The quality of the Houston defense and the need for Davis Mills to push the scoreboard could keep Allen from running back another 40-point outing.

Houston has allowed a 57.6% completion rate (2nd), 6.1 yards per pass attempt (2nd), and a 3.2% touchdown rate (5th) to opposing passers.

As a byproduct of those rates, they have allowed only 10.2 passing points per game (2nd).

They have yet to allow a 20-point fantasy scorer or a QB1 scoring week.

We know this is a top-flight defense, but they also have not been pressed to this point in the year.

They have seen Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield this season, but they have also faced Bo Nix, Cam Ward (twice), Trevor Lawrence (twice), Mac Jones, and Cooper Rush.

When these teams played a year ago in Week 5, Allen had one of the worst passing games of his career.

He completed a career-low 30% (9 of 30) of his passes for 131 yards (4.4 Y/A) with a touchdown, adding 54 rushing yards.

He closed that week as the QB17 (14.6 points).

Davis Mills: With C.J. Stroud out another week, Mills is set to make his third start against the Bills.

Mills turned in another usable outing on Sunday, closing the week as the QB9 (16.4 points) against the Titans.

Houston and Mills have gotten off to slow starts in each of his starts.

The Texans have scored a touchdown on one of their 11 possessions in the first half of the past two weeks.

All 3 of his passing touchdowns have come in the second half of those games.

Mills has only thrown for 6.5 and 6.7 yards per attempt against the Jaguars and Titans.

He has faced two pass defenses in the back half of the league in passing points allowed.

The Bills are third (10.4 per game), allowing a 61.9% completion rate (3rd), 6.9 Y/A (12th), and a 3.7% touchdown rate (7th).

Paired with a pedestrian team total, Mills is a floor-based QB2.

Running Back

James Cook: Cook got out of the blocks slowly on Sunday, managing only 10 yards on 5 touches in the first half.

He then got going in the second half, turning 14 touches into 104 yards with a touchdown, a beautifully called 25-yard wheel that got him in space against Anthony Nelson.

Buffalo has finally given Cook more opportunities in the passing game over the past two weeks.

He has 8 receptions for 90 yards over the past two weeks after 13 receptions for 100 yards through 8 games.

He is still running a route on 47% of the dropbacks (RB16), so gamers need those designed plays to keep getting dialed up in another tough rushing matchup.

Houston is allowing 3.6 yards per carry (3rd) and 0.87 yards before contact per rush (5th) on running back runs.

They are allowing 4.1 yards per touch to running backs, second in the league.

Cook is also a test for this run defense, and he's still in play as an upside option on the RB1/RB2 line.

He has a 50.5% success rate as a rusher, the highest rate for any running back with 100-plus attempts this season.

Only 12.6% of his runs have failed to gain yardage (3rd), with 12.6% gaining 10 or more yards (7th).

In that game a year ago between these teams, Cook rushed 20 times for 82 yards and a touchdown, catching 2 passes for 17 yards.

Woody Marks: Marks only managed 51 yards on 19 touches Sunday, but he did roll over his usage from the week prior as the lead back.

Marks played 65.7% of the snaps, handling a season-high 82.6% of the backfield touches.

Nick Chubb had only 3 touches on Sunday after 6 touches in Week 10.

Marks also has all 3 backfield touches inside the five-yard line over the past two games.

While the offensive environment can still limit Marks like it did on Sunday, that workload makes him an RB2 with added upside appeal in this matchup.

The Bills were once again ravaged by another backfield on Sunday, allowing 202 yards and 3 touchdowns on 33 touches to the Tampa Bay backs.

Sean Tucker turned 21 touches into 140 yards and 3 scores as the standout.

Tucker was the RB1 overall on Sunday.

That was the third time over the past four games that Buffalo has allowed the first or second-highest scoring running back in weekly output.

Even outside of Tucker, Buffalo also allowed 62 yards on 12 touches to Rachaad White, which included White rushing 10 times for 51 yards.

White had not run for more than 3.8 YPC in a game since Week 2.

The Bills are now allowing 5.4 YPC to running backs (31st) with a league-high 14 rushing touchdowns to the position.

The Bills are allowing a league-high 3.95 yards after contact per rush to running backs, more than the Texans are allowing to running backs overall.

We would love to see Marks used more out of the backfield, as he has also been underused there based on his resume.

Marks has had target shares of only 7.7%, 6.8%, and 2.5% in the past three games.

Running backs have 23.2% of the receptions against the Bills, the sixth-highest share in the league.

Wide Receiver

Nico Collins: Collins stayed hot on Sunday, catching 9 of 10 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown.

This was the fourth game in a row for Collins seeing double-digit targets come his way.

He has had at least 7 receptions in each of the past three weeks, re-establishing himself as a fantasy WR1 after a slow start.

Mills has understood the assignment, targeting Collins on 28.2% of his throws over the past three weeks in relief.

Collins did run into back-to-back solid matchups for Mills and WR1 targets.

He does still get the latter here, although this is a tougher spot for Mills overall.

Buffalo is last in points allowed to WR1 targets (17.9 per game).

The Bills have allowed 6.0 receptions (29th) for a league-high 86.9 yards per game to WR1 targets.

Khalil Shakir: Shakir was left out of the fun on Sunday, catching 1 pass for a loss of 3 yards.

Shakir had only 3 targets, which accounted for 10% of the team's total.

That was his lowest target share in a game since Week 2 of the Jets’ blowout.

Shakir also only ran a route on 66.7% of the dropbacks, below his 75.5% rate on the season.

All three of Shakir’s top-24 scoring weeks have come with the addition of getting into the end zone, leaving him as a floor-based WR4/FLEX option.

Shakir does play 65% of his snaps in the slot, so he can avoid the strong perimeter secondary for Houston.

The Texans have been weaker against slot receivers, allowing 7.5 yards per target (17th).

41.7% of the receptions they have allowed to wide receivers this season have come via the slot, the fifth-highest rate.

That said, they have allowed only a 1.6% touchdown rate (4th) to those slot receivers.

Jayden Higgins: Higgins caught 4 of 7 targets for 55 yards on Sunday.

Higgins has shown some growth of late.

He has at least 7 targets in each of the past two games.

On Sunday, he was second on the team in route rate (57.4%), his highest rate in a game without an injury this season.

That still makes him a stretch as a dart throw and single-game DFS option, but this is a thin week for many gamers at wide receiver.

Houston should be pressed to throw here, and Buffalo is allowing 9.5 yards per target to outside receivers, where Higgins has played 84% of his snaps.

Bills WRs: Buffalo sat Keon Coleman on Sunday after he was late to a team meeting during the week.

They have said that the situation is resolved, but that does not make Coleman someone to chase here.

We are unsure whether Coleman will return to a full-time role, and he has had only two weeks as a top-40 receiver, both with touchdowns.

With Coleman inactive, Buffalo played a complete rotation of wideouts.

Shakir ran the most routes, which was only 66.7% of the dropbacks.

After Shakir, Curtis Samuel ran 17 routes (51.5%), Josh Palmer ran 16 (48.5%), Gabe Davis 15 (45.5%), and Tyrell Shavers 14 (42.4%).

Shavers was the standout, catching 4 of 5 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown, a 43-yard strike from Allen buying time.

That was Allen’s first passing touchdown on a throw 40-plus air yards since 2022.

All of these ancillary Buffalo wideouts are touchdown-dependent fantasy plays.

Houston has been excellent on the outside, allowing 6.9 yards per target (3rd) and a league-low 52.8% catch rate to outside receivers.

Christian Kirk: Kirk caught 1 of 4 targets for 6 yards on Sunday.

He did come close to a nearly incredible touchdown grab on the sideline, but he could not hang on to the ball through the catch.

Kirk has had 26 yards or fewer in all of his games this season except for one.

He has only been on the field for 49% and 55.3% of the dropbacks these past two weeks, leaving him only in play for single-game DFS.

Jaylin Noel: Noel is still roadblocked here by Kirk, even though the veteran is playing less.

Since Kirk returned these past two weeks, Noel has only run 17 (34.7%) and 14 (29.8%) pass routes.

He needs a touchdown if throwing a dart at him for the showdown slate.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz: Schultz was active again on Sunday, securing 6 of 9 targets for 51 yards.

Schultz has at least 20% of the team’s targets in each of the past three weeks and five of his past seven games.

He has at least 50 receiving yards in five of his past six games.

He has not had a lofty ceiling, but Schultz has found footing as a back-end TE1/high TE2.

Since Week 5, Schultz is the TE11 in yards per route run (1.75) and TE10 in target share (19.7%).

Buffalo is not a strong draw for upside here.

They are allowing a league-low 2.5 catches per game to tight ends with a 2.6% touchdown rate (3rd) to the position.

Dawson Knox: On a short week, we will expect to see Knox draw another start on Thursday while Dalton Kincaid recovers from a hamstring injury.

Knox only caught 1 of 3 targets for 23 yards on Sunday.

He was on the field for a team-high 84.8% of the dropbacks if you need something to latch onto here, but we have not seen much fantasy juice from Knox in these games without Kincaid.

In the four games that Kincaid missed last season, Knox had games of 4-40-0, 2-56-0, 1-19-1, and 1-23-0 on 12 total targets.

Knox is a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option.

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