The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Jaguars and Browns.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | Jacksonville | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 16.5 | Implied Total | 24.0 | ||
| 16.4 | 31 | Points/Gm | 27.7 | 6 |
| 22.3 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 20.2 | 9 |
| 60.6 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 63.7 | 9 |
| 59.7 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.0 | 13 |
| 4.3 | 32 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 16 |
| 4.8 | 5 | Def. Yards/Play | 5 | 9 |
| 40.9% | 25 | Rush% | 44.6% | 14 |
| 59.1% | 8 | Pass% | 55.4% | 19 |
| 46.8% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 36.0% | 1 |
| 53.2% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 64.0% | 32 |
- Jacksonville was a league-best 7-2 (77.8%) against the spread at home last season.
- The Browns scored on a league-low 26.2% of their possessions in 2025.
- Games involving the Browns averaged a league-low 38.7 combined points and 545.8 combined yards per game.
- The Browns allowed opponents to score on 33.7% of drives, fifth in the league.
- The Jaguars scored a league-high 110 points off takeaways in 2025.
- The Browns were last in the NFL in success rate per pass play (32.7%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Browns vs. Jaguars Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Trevor Lawrence
A big part of the Jaguars' turnaround last season centered on Lawrence and this passing game coming together.
After the Week 8 bye, Lawrence averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt (7th) with a 6.6% touchdown rate (4th).
Before that, Lawrence was averaging 6.3 yards per pass attempt (26th) with a 3.5% touchdown rate (26th).
He averaged a league-high 22.6 fantasy points per game over that span.
He was a QB1 scorer in seven of his final eight games, posting five top-six scoring weeks over that span.
While Jacksonville faced a run of weak opponents over the back half of the season, we also saw this offense score 34 points in Denver as proof of concept that it can punch up regularly.
In that Denver game, Lawrence scored 31.2 fantasy points.
He connected on 23 of 36 passes (63.9%) for 279 yards (7.8 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns, tacking on 20 yards and a score on the ground.
The Jaguars will get tested right out of the gate this season.
Tougher draws are coming in the next few weeks, but while the Browns have their faults, the defense is still projected to be the team's strength, even after trading Myles Garrett.
They did get Jared Verse as part of that deal.
They have the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year in Carson Schwesinger.
Mason Graham and Maliek Collins are on the defensive front as well.
They added Quincy Williams.
Denzel Ward and Grant Delpit are quality secondary pieces, while Emmanuel McNeil-Warren has a lot of buzz.
The Browns were sixth in passing points allowed per game last season (11.4), allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt (9th), and allowed a 62.3% completion rate (7th), but they allowed a 4.7% touchdown rate (17th).
The Browns have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Rutenberg.
Since 2020, Rutenberg has coached under Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich.
That would signal more quarters and zone-based tendencies, but this preseason, Rutenberg called games as if the Browns were still operating under Jim Schwartz.
It was only the preseason, but the Browns played man coverage on 40.4% of snaps, the third-most in the league.
Cleveland played man coverage on 43.4% of defensive snaps last year, the highest rate in the league, so maybe this is just how he views the best way to utilize the personnel.
The next closest team (Detroit) was at 31.8%.
The league average was 22.7%.
That is not a one-year thing, either.
In 2024, Cleveland ranked second in the league in man coverage rate (38.8%), and in 2023 they ranked first (41.3%).
Rutenberg may want to pivot in his debut as a coordinator, however.
Lawrence averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt against man coverage last season, which was fifth in the league.
That was for the full season, not only the back half of the year when he was at his best.
Against zone coverages, Lawrence threw for 7.1 yards per attempt, which was 25th.
But over that hot run in the final 10 games, he did post 8.1 yards per attempt against those looks.
Lawrence also set career highs with 359 yards rushing and 9 touchdowns on the ground.
For an aggressive defense, the Browns were great against mobile passers last year.
They allowed a league-low 1.6 rushing points per game to quarterbacks while facing Josh Allen (17 yards), early-season Lamar Jackson (13 yards), Caleb Williams (13 yards), and Justin Fields (28 yards).
Drake Maye (50 yards) was the only quarterback to rush for 30 or more yards against them.
Giving Lawrence the benefit of the doubt and rolling over what he showed at the end of last season, he warrants QB1 consideration, but this is not a ceiling expectation layout.
The question will be how much Jacksonville is pushed here for a high-end outcome.
The Browns were so lackluster on offense last season that teams threw the ball only 27.9 times per game against them, the third-lowest in the league.
Deshaun Watson
The Browns are entering the season with Watson as the starter, despite an underwhelming preseason that mirrored his recent output.
This exhibition period, Watson was 16 of 27 (59.3%) for 162 yards (6.0 Y/A) with no touchdowns or an interception.
He averaged only 5.4 air yards per attempt, the fewest of the top three Cleveland passers.
Watson missed all of 2025 with an Achilles injury.
The last time we saw Watson play in 2024, he completed 63.4% of his passes (29th), averaged 5.3 yards per pass attempt (44th), posted a 2.3% touchdown rate (42nd), and had a league-high 13.3% sack rate.
It is hard to make a bull case for Watson being more than a deep-end QB2, but he should have to throw a lot here as a road underdog.
Todd Monken should let him throw a lot, too.
Jacksonville faced a league-high 37.6 pass attempts per game last season.
The Jaguars are due for regression on the turnover front (well, maybe not here), and this defense lost Devin Lloyd and Greg Newsome and has not made significant additions.
Jacksonville ranked 18th in pressure rate (36.4%) and 30th in sack rate (4.7%), but they held up against the pass, especially against the bottom-end passers they faced.
Jacksonville was sixth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.356), third in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.3), and 8th in completion rate allowed (62.5%).
Browns vs. Jaguars Fantasy Running Back Preview
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LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 1 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Seahawks | Wednesday Night Football |
| 49ers vs. Rams | Thursday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Vikings | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Giants | Sunday Night Football |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Monday Night Football |