The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Raiders and Dolphins.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Miami | Rank | @ | Las Vegas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 20.4 | 25 | Points/Gm | 14.2 | 32 |
| 24.9 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 25.4 | 25 |
| 55.8 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 55.8 | 32 |
| 60.2 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 22 |
| 5.4 | 14 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.4 | 30 |
| 5.8 | 26 | Def. Yards/Play | 5 | 10 |
| 45.5% | 9 | Rush% | 38.9% | 29 |
| 54.5% | 24 | Pass% | 61.1% | 4 |
| 45.9% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 47.7% | 29 |
| 54.2% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 52.3% | 4 |
- Games involving Miami last season averaged a league-low 116.0 combined plays per game.
- The Raiders had a league-worst 32% success rate on rushing plays in 2025.
- Las Vegas produced a league-low 31 runs that gained 10 or more yards last season.
- 42% of the Raiders' drives failed to produce at least one first down, the highest rate in the league. The league average was 31.2%.
- The Raiders forced opponents to go 3 plays and then punt on 38.4% of drives last season, which only trailed the Chargers (39.5%) and Texans (39.5%).
- Miami had a 50.9% success rate defending pass plays in 2025, 31st in the league.
- The Dolphins were 27th in EPA as a passing offense in 2025 (-18.9).
Trust = spike production for that player
Dolphins vs. Raiders Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Malik Willis
Willis resurrected his career while backing up Jordan Love in Green Bay, which helps explain why the new regime pursued him.
Over the past two seasons with the Packers, Willis completed 70 of 89 passes (78.7%) for 972 yards (10.9 yards per pass attempt) with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Despite the hyper-efficient play, we still do not have a large sample size for him in the NFL.
Willis has played 548 career snaps with only six starts through four years in the league.
We have two more games with Willis playing at least 60% of the snaps.
Willis is the type of fantasy asset capable of spiking for front-end fantasy output, logging two top-six-scoring weeks over his three starts with Green Bay.
He led all quarterbacks over the past two seasons in fantasy points per snap (0.73).
For some context, Lamar Jackson (0.62) and Josh Allen (0.61) are next up.
The small sample and the move from Green Bay to Miami cast plenty of doubt on Willis' overall upside since the Dolphins are clearly in a reset season.
Still, the setup for Week 1 is favorable enough that I would consider Willis a strong floor-based QB2 with enough upside appeal to be in play for DFS purposes.
We know Willis can run, which will be the vehicle for a higher floor for fantasy.
Willis had a 14.5% scramble rate with Green Bay, which was the highest in the league.
This is the second-tightest spread on their schedule.
The Raiders were middle of the pack against the pass last season, allowing 7.1 yards per attempt (18th).
They allowed a 69.3% completion rate (31st), but only 10.3 yards per completion (5th).
The team retained Maxx Crosby after a trade fell through, while key offseason additions include Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean at linebacker, with Taron Johnson brought in at cornerback.
Second-round pick Treydan Stukes is expected to start at free safety.
Rob Leonard takes over as defensive coordinator for the Raiders.
Leonard was with the Las Vegas Raiders for the past three seasons as the defensive line coach.
Kirk Cousins
As expected, the Raiders are entering the season with Cousins as their starting quarterback.
Cousins' surrounding talent takes some squinting, but this is a favorable system for him under Klint Kubiak as long as he is starting.
Kubiak had a significant efficiency spike with the New Orleans offense in 2024 before injuries decimated it, then revamped the Seattle offense last year.
Neither of those offenses was littered with immense individual talent, especially at quarterback.
Kubiak's calling card is creating explosives in the passing game.
The Seahawks were fifth in the NFL in pass success rate (48%) and second in the rate of pass plays that gained 10 or more yards (32.5%) last year.
When Derek Carr played in 2024, the Saints ranked 18th in pass success rate (42.8%) and 12th in the rate of pass plays that gained 10 or more yards (27.2%).
Last season, the Raiders ranked 28th in pass success rate (39%) and 29th in the rate of pass plays that gained 10 or more yards (22.1%).
It was only exhibition play, but Cousins completed 13 of 17 passes (76.5%) for 101 yards (5.9 yards per pass attempt) with a touchdown this preseason.
Gamers are not getting to Cousins as a streamer the first week in 1QB leagues, but if you were going to play Cousins in 2QB formats, this would be the game to do it.
The Raiders are home favorites against a defense making a transition.
Jeff Hafley takes over a defense that was 26th in pressure rate (31.8%) in 2025 and allowed a league-high 71.8% completion rate.
Miami allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt (26th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (27th).
Miami will start three rookies on defense: Chris Johnson, Jacob Rodriguez, and Michael Taaffe.
Josh Uche is the only free agent expected to start on defense.
Dolphins vs. Raiders Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 1 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Seahawks | Wednesday Night Football |
| 49ers vs. Rams | Thursday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Vikings | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Giants | Sunday Night Football |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Monday Night Football |
