Buccaneers vs. Bengals Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Bengals and Buccaneers.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

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Buccaneers vs. Bengals Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Joe Burrow

Burrow was once again impactful when on the field in 2025, completing 66.8% of his passes for a 6.6% touchdown rate.

He is the only quarterback with a touchdown rate of 6% or higher in each of the past two seasons.

He ranked seventh in passing points per attempt (0.503) and averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game in the weeks he finished (QB9).

The rub once again was keeping him on the field.

After missing 10 games with a toe injury last year, Burrow has now missed significant time in three of his first six seasons.

When Burrow returned in Week 13, he was a QB1 scorer in five of those six games, with three top-five scoring weeks.

When the Bengals have their core offense on the field together, this is one of the best units in the league.

In plays with both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the field the past two seasons (548 attempts), Burrow has completed 72.3% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt and a 7.3% touchdown rate.

On his plays missing either Chase or Higgins over that span (363 attempts), Burrow has completed 65.3% of his passes for 6.4 Y/A and a 5.5% touchdown rate.

An interesting component for 2026 is how much the Cincinnati defense improves, and whether that affects the number of jailbreak game situations this team has had in recent years.

Over the past two seasons, Cincinnati games have averaged a league-high 53.3 combined points per game.

The Bengals ranked 27th in points allowed per drive last season (2.44), down from 26th in 2024 (2.26).

The other element that is apparently in the process of changing is that the Bengals are conditioning the offense to play more under center.

It was the talk of camp, and in the small preseason sample, Burrow was under center for 53.8% of his dropbacks.

To this point in his career, Burrow has taken only 22% of his dropbacks under center, with a high of 35.5% in 2021.

In that 2021 season, Burrow averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt with an 8.2% touchdown rate under center, but since then he has posted 5.9 Y/A and a 5.2% touchdown rate on 116 attempts from under center compared to 7.2 Y/A and a 5.8% touchdown rate out of shotgun.

This game has upside based on the talent of players here that we can explore in DFS tournaments, but Burrow is a volatile QB1 option in Week 1 for a few reasons.

The first is the success rate of those under-center snaps, for the reasons highlighted.

Second, Burrow and this offense have been notoriously slow starters.

In six career Week 1 outings, Burrow has averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game.

He has scored single-digit points in three straight season openers.

He did not reach 20 fantasy points in any of those games, finishing QB17 or worse in five (with a high week of QB12).

In those games, Burrow has thrown for 5.8 yards per pass attempt with 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.

As troubling as that is, Sunday's game is still an isolated event.

I don't want to overly factor in previous Week 1 results.

However, there are some matchup concerns, particularly with how the Bengals handle the pass rush of Tampa Bay.

The Bengals are returning their entire starting offensive line, and this is a spot they will be tested.

The Tampa Bay front seven looks gnarly on paper, and Todd Bowles is no stranger to an aggressive defense.

The Bucs added Rueben Bain, A'Shawn Robinson, Josiah Trotter, and Alex Anzalone this offseason, while they will be getting Calijah Kancey back, who missed all but three games last season.

Tampa also resolved Vita Vea‘s holdout.

Since Bowles has been with the Bucs, they are No. 1 in the NFL in blitz rate (37.1%) and fifth in pressure rate (35.9%).

If the Cincinnati front can hold up, the Bengals pass catchers do have a clear edge over the Tampa Bay secondary.

The Bucs lost Jamel Dean in free agency opposite Zyon McCollum and are replacing him in-house with Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish at nickelback.

Morrison allowed a 110.8 rating when targeted last season (40 targets) while Parrish allowed a 104.8 rating (77 targets).

With Dean off the field last year, the Bucs allowed a league-high 69.8% catch rate, 8.6 yards per target (28th), and a 7% touchdown rate (31st) to wide receivers.

Baker Mayfield

The Buccaneers opened the 2025 season 6-2 before fading down the stretch, winning two of their final nine games.

That half of the season overlapped with Mayfield playing through a handful of injuries, something Tampa Bay dealt with everywhere last season.

Mayfield dealt with lingering ankle, knee, oblique, and shoulder injuries over the course of the year but never missed a game outright.

Up front, Tristan Wirfs (12 games played), Luke Goedeke (11), and Ben Bredeson (11) all missed five or more games.

Cody Mauch suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2.

The only Bucs starter to play in every game was center Graham Barton.

His own injuries, paired with injuries to Tampa Bay's receiver room, torpedoed his season.

Before the Week 9 bye, Mayfield had completed 63.9% of his passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt with 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Over the final nine games, he completed 62.4% of his passes for 6.5 Y/A with 13 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

His depth of throw went from 8.6 yards downfield to 7.6 air yards per throw over that span, while his inaccurate throw rate rose 1.8% in those weeks.

He ended the year without logging a single QB1-scoring week over his final seven games, after doing so in seven of his opening 10.

The late-season collapse led Tampa Bay to move on from offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard after just one season.

New OC Zac Robinson will be the 10th different coordinator Mayfield has had in the NFL.

He has bounced around a bit, but Mayfield has had the same play-caller in back-to-back NFL seasons only once in his career.

That said, Robinson is a familiar face.

Robinson was with the Rams when Mayfield stopped by in 2022 under Liam Coen.

Mayfield, of course, also had a stellar 2024 under Coen.

With Robinson expected to maintain a similar approach and Mayfield healthier, a bounce-back is in order.

This game definitely has enough appeal to put Mayfield in play as a fringe QB1.

Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan dealt with injury in August, forcing both to miss most of the preseason.

With Mike Evans gone, this receiver room may not be quite as strong as it could be in a few weeks when everyone is 100%.

The setup still has upside potential.

The Bengals were a target for us in 2025.

They allowed 16.3 passing points per game (29th), surrendered 8.0 yards per pass attempt (29th), and allowed a 5.9% touchdown rate (28th).

Cincinnati has added pieces to shore things up, but much of their focus has been on improving the run defense.

The pass defense and pass rush remain a question mark.

DJ Turner is a front-end talent at cornerback, but the rest of the secondary has a lot to prove.

The Bengals added Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger to help the safety room.

Cincinnati struggled to rush the passer last season (24th in pressure rate) and lost Trey Hendrickson in free agency.

Shemar Stewart has been sidelined since the end of July with a knee injury and might not be ready for the season opener.

The Bengals did throw a lot at the defensive line, however, adding veterans Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, and Boye Mafe.

Lawrence is the crown jewel of those additions as a complete player, while Allen and Mafe are better run defenders.

They also selected Cashius Howell in the second round.

We are going to find out how quickly these guys can gel up front, but the Bengals did at least make an aggressive play to improve their defensive front.

Buccaneers vs. Bengals Fantasy Running Back Preview

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