The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Buccaneers vs. Panthers Week 7 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Carolina | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 24.0 | ||
| 19.8 | 25 | Points/Gm | 29.2 | 4 |
| 23.0 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 24.6 | 21 |
| 62.8 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 68.4 | 2 |
| 59.8 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.8 | 25 |
| 4.7 | 25 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 6 |
| 5 | 9 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 18 |
| 42.7% | 17 | Rush% | 37.4% | 27 |
| 57.3% | 16 | Pass% | 62.6% | 6 |
| 37.1% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 39.2% | 8 |
| 63.0% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 60.8% | 25 |
- Tampa Bay is the only team in the league to have every game decided by one score so far.
- The Buccaneers are 31st in total offensive EPA (-56.9).
- Tampa Bay reaches third down on 54.4% of their sets of downs, 29th.
- 41.2% of the drives against Tampa Bay fail to gain a first down, 4th in the league.
- Only 24.1% of Carolina possessions fail to gain at least one first down, 8th in the league.
- Carolina averages 1.3 more yards per passing play than their opponent, 5th in the league.
- The Bucs average 1.4 more yards per rushing play than their opponents, 3rd in the league.
- The Panthers are averaging 5.4 scoring plays per game, 3rd in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Buccaneers vs. Panthers Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Bryce Young
Young came out of the bye and picked up where he left off for gamers, closing Week 6 as the QB8 (19.8 points).
Young has now delivered four top-10 scoring weeks over his five games.
He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four games and leads the league in passing yards per game (309.8).
He has thrown for at least 281 yards in every game this season, a mark he had hit on only four times entering the season.
Carolina has remained aggressive on offense, throwing at the second-highest rate over expectations.
We should expect that approach to continue, since the Bucs are also a pass funnel.
Teams playing Tampa Bay have thrown the ball 5.3% over expectations, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Carolina is leaning on the pass, and Brad Idzik is letting Young play his style of game while giving him multiple “easy buttons” on offense.
The Panthers have a 53.8% motion rate (14th) and a 32.3% play-action rate (5th).
Carolina has also incorporated more RPO components into the offense.
Young is 7 of 9 on RPO passes in the past two games and now matches Patrick Mahomes with the most RPO dropbacks (13) this season.
Nothing major, just another wrinkle that suits their quarterback.
All of that is helping a patchwork offensive line that is getting healthier.
Taylor Moton and Damien Lewis returned to the lineup out of the bye.
Young faced pressure on a season-low 33.3% of his dropbacks against the Eagles.
Young has earned the right to remain a back-end QB1 while still earning respect in this matchup.
All of those things we covered can help against an aggressive Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at a 42.6% rate (2nd) and has sent 6 or more pass rushers the most snaps in the NFL.
We talked about this last week.
The Bucs don't get much pressure (31st), but they force opponents to throw quickly.
They face the league's fastest time to throw (2.59 seconds from the snap) and 6.5 air yards per pass attempt (4th lowest).
The ball is coming out fast, short, and outside.
Opponents are throwing between the numbers 31.5% of the time against Tampa Bay, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
They are allowing a 66.5% completion rate (27th), but only 6.6 yards per pass attempt (14th) and 9.9 yards per completion (5th) because so much is pushed near the line of scrimmage.
The Bucs have done a good job not letting up production due to that approach, ranking 10th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.38).
They haven't allowed a quarterback to finish higher than QB12 in a game this season, including against Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love.
Bucs QB
Baker Mayfield is scheduled to practice Wednesday and see where his thumb is for a potential return Sunday.
Before Mayfield's injury, he got off to a rocky start.
He completed 63.5% of his passes (20th) for 6.4 yards per attempt (23rd) and a 2.1% touchdown rate (30th).
He was also sacked on 11.9% of his dropbacks, 32nd in the league.
I believe Mayfield's return can add viability to this passing game, but if he returns, he is still only a QB2 option.
Mayfield has finished in the top half of weekly scoring in just one of six career starts against Ejiro Evero and the Panthers.
Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in one of those outings.
The Panthers aren't a defense we have to hide from, but with Mayfield just returning from injury and the way he played before it, there is nothing to suggest we should be bullish on him, either.
Especially with the Bucs sitting on a lower-end team total.
Carolina has had a favorable run in facing Tanner McKee, Deshaun Watson, and the Cooper Rush/Jack Strand combo in three of their five games.
They also did hold Jared Goff to 1 touchdown on 52 pass attempts.
If Mayfield misses another week, Jalon Daniels slots back in as a back-end QB2.
Daniels has been QB24, QB18, and QB20 in his three starts filling in for Mayfield.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers Fantasy Running Back Preview
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LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 7 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Bears | Thursday Night Football |
| Steelers vs. Saints | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Browns @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Buccaneers @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Seahawks | Sunday Night Football |
| Cowboys @ Eagles | Monday Night Football |