The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Colts vs. Vikings Week 7 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 17.5 | Implied Total | 24.0 | ||
| 24.0 | 14 | Points/Gm | 21.8 | 22 |
| 27.3 | 27 | Points All./Gm | 12.8 | 1 |
| 66.7 | 6 | Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 20 |
| 58.8 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.2 | 2 |
| 4.7 | 24 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.6 | 27 |
| 6.0 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.6 | 2 |
| 41.8% | 19 | Rush% | 49.5% | 2 |
| 58.3% | 14 | Pass% | 50.5% | 31 |
| 43.6% | 20 | Opp. Rush % | 38.4% | 6 |
| 56.4% | 13 | Opp. Pass % | 61.6% | 27 |
- Minnesota games are averaging a league-low 34.6 combined points.
- Minnesota has run 58.3% of its offensive snaps with a lead, the league's highest rate.
- The Vikings lead the NFL in total expected points added on defense (62.7) and special teams (29.0).
- Minnesota is 29th in EPA on offense (-46.7).
- The Vikings face third down on a league-high 65% of their sets of downs. The league average is 47.3%.
- The Colts rank 29th in EPA as a passing offense (-26.8) but 3rd in rushing (7.4).
- The Vikings lead the NFL in turnover differential (+6).
- The Colts are last in turnover differential (-8).
Trust = spike production for that player
Colts vs. Vikings Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Kyler Murray
Murray had his best game of the season before the bye against the Saints.
He completed 24 of 30 passes (80%) for 229 yards (7.6 Y/A) and a touchdown, and he rushed 10 times for 51 yards.
That was good for QB15 (18.3 points) in what was a high-scoring week in general.
Murray has still operated as a near-the-line-of-scrimmage passer as he and the Kevin O'Connell offense find their groove.
Murray averages only 6.1 air yards per pass attempt (29th), with 30.3% of his passes going 10 or more yards downfield (27th).
On throws under 10 yards downfield, Murray completes 88.7% (2nd) but averages only 5.6 yards per pass attempt (24th).
When throwing 10 or more yards downfield, he has completed 51.9% (14 of 27) for 11.7 yards per pass attempt (14th) and both of his touchdowns.
To be fair to Murray, he hasn't played with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson all on the field at the same time.
That group has been on the field together for only 9 passing plays.
With everyone coming out of the bye intact, we will start to see this offense take shape.
I still prefer Murray as a floor-based QB2, but he has matchup appeal for anyone going to him in place of byes or injuries.
Minnesota is indoors and a home favorite, with an implied team total in the mid-twenties.
The Colts have allowed 15.6 passing points per game (22nd), and that is while facing Cam Ward and mostly Athan Kaliakmanis in two of their past three games.
Murray has seen little man coverage so far (13.1% of dropbacks)
The Colts have lowered their man coverage rates since the season opened, but they are still at 27.5% man coverage, fifth in the league.
I don't know how aggressive the Colts want to be with Jefferson in man coverage, but on the limited sample Murray has seen, he has a league-low 35.3 rating, throwing for 5.5 Y/A with zero touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
The Colts are also 21st in rushing points allowed per game to passers (3.2).
Daniel Jones
Jones struggled to find success last week, this time as a home favorite against a soft Tennessee pass defense.
Jones went 22 of 42 (52.4%) for 269 yards (6.4 Y/A) with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions.
He rushed for a season-high 30 yards to mitigate some of the turnover damage, but he still hasn't logged a scoring week in the top half of weekly scoring.
This isn't the week to chase that streak ending, as Jones is a back-end QB2 here.
The Vikings allow the fewest passing points per attempt (0.25), a 53.2% completion rate (1st), 6.3 Y/A (6th), and a league-low 1.9% touchdown rate.
They have allowed 1 touchdown pass since Week 1.
The Vikings are blitzing at a league-high rate (66.5%) and are getting pressure at the highest rate in the league (45.9%).
Jones is averaging 5.2 yards per pass attempt when blitzed (26th) and 5.5 Y/A when pressured (22nd).
With Chris Ballard let go this week, we are on alert for more potential changes, including benching Jones.
Colts vs. Vikings Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 7 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Bears | Thursday Night Football |
| Steelers vs. Saints | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Browns @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Buccaneers @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Seahawks | Sunday Night Football |
| Cowboys @ Eagles | Monday Night Football |
