The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Saints and Cardinals.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Arizona | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 24.5 | Implied Total | 18.0 | ||
| 23.5 | 11 | Points/Gm | 19.9 | 24 |
| 22.3 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 23.4 | 18 |
| 60.9 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 60.7 | 23 |
| 61.5 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.8 | 30 |
| 5.9 | 7 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 17 |
| 5.6 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 27 |
| 44.69% | 11 | Rush% | 43.02% | 17 |
| 55.31% | 22 | Pass% | 56.98% | 16 |
| 44.50% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 43.70% | 17 |
| 55.50% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 56.30% | 16 |
- The Saints have won six consecutive season openers, the longest active streak in the league.
- New Orleans was the only team that did not win a game last season after trailing (0-12).
- Arizona running backs had a league-high 14.6% of their runs gain 10 or more yards.
- The Cardinals averaged 36.0 yards per drive in 2024 (fourth).
- The Cardinals allowed 34.3 yards per drive in 2024 (30th).
- The Saints allowed 34.1 yards per drive, 29th.
- Arizona converted a league-worst 14.8% of its third-and-long situations in 2024.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Kyler Murray: The 2024 season was a Rorschach test for Murray.
He completed 68.8% of his passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt with a 3.9% touchdown rate.
All of those were highs since 2021.
He had the highest success rate (48.4%) of his career while posting the lowest rate of plays that lost 1.0 EPA or worse (14.6%).
He played every game for the first time since 2020.
While he played better football than in recent seasons, there was also a lack of upside.
He finished 14th in EPA per dropback (0.09) and 27th in the rate of dropbacks that resulted in 1.0 EPA or more (21.6%).
Downfield passing and third down performance were again thorns in Murray's side.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Murray was 22nd in rating (82.3), completing 47.8% of those passes (21st).
Over the past three seasons, Murray has completed 44.3% of his throws 10 or more yards downfield, which is 29th in the league.
On throws of 20 or more yards downfield, Murray was 33rd in rating (57.2).
Over the past three seasons, Murray has completed 30.8% of his throws 20 or more yards downfield, which is 30th in the league.
This passing game struggled the most when the opponents knew they had to throw the ball.
Murray completed 59.6% of his passes (20th) on third downs.
He was 28th in rating in the fourth quarter (77.2).
He had a 1.4% touchdown rate in the fourth quarter last season, the lowest of all qualifying passers.
Some of that falls on the design of this passing game when it is forced to play out of structure, but we need more out of Murray as a passer.
The good news, as it pertains to the season opener, is that Arizona is expected to play ahead and maintain offensive leverage.
When Murray played with a lead last season, he completed 72.2% of his passes (third) and was seventh in EPA per play (0.22).
Murray should be in favorable game conditions to be a viable QB1 with larger upside.
For all of the issues that New Orleans had last season, they were not a terrible defense for fantasy against the pass.
The Saints ranked fifth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.379) and a 3.2% touchdown rate (second).
New Orleans has some moving parts on defense this season.
They hired Brandon Staley as defensive coordinator.
Staley’s defenses with the Chargers ranked in the back half of the league in passing touchdowns allowed in all three seasons.
They traded away Marshon Lattimore during the year last season.
Paulson Adebo left via free agency this offseason.
Tyrann Mathieu retired.
The team revamped its safety position, adding Justin Reid and Julian Blackmon.
They added journeyman cornerback Isaac Yiadom, who is expected to start opposite of Kool-Aid McKinstry, as Alontae Taylor is dealing with a groin injury.
We would like to see Murray run more than he did last year, however.
Murray was fourth in rushing yards (572) among quarterbacks, but his output was inconsistent based on chunk runs.
He rushed 4.6 times per game, the fewest of his career.
His 6.7% scrambling rate was the second-highest rate of his career, but the designed rushing declined.
Murray rushed for a league-high 8.6 yards per designed rush, but his 1.5 designed runs per game were a career low.
In 2023, that number was 2.8 per game, while he had averaged 3.2 designed runs per game for his career entering last season.
Spencer Rattler: Rattler was named the starter this season after completing 30 of 43 passes (69.8%) for 295 yards (6.9 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception in the preseason.
As a rookie, Rattler completed 57% of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt, throwing 4 touchdowns on 228 passes (1.8%) with 5 interceptions (2.2%).
He was also sacked on 8.8% of his dropbacks.
That said, when Rattler did get on the field as a rookie, the New Orleans roster was depleted mainly of talent due to the numerous offensive injuries they had sustained.
Rattler gets a second chance at a first impression with Kellen Moore.
Moore should at least put Rattler in good spots.
This preseason, 55.9% of Rattler’s dropbacks used pre-snap motion, and 22.2% used play action.
The bad news is that Tyler Shough was far more effective in the play-action game during the exhibition period.
Rattler was only 4 of 11 (36.4%) for 58 yards (5.3 Y/A) with an interception using play action compared to Shough connecting on 10 of 12 play action attempts for 145 yards (12.1 Y/A) with a touchdown.
Rattler is only an option for 2QB formats in Week 1 as we test the waters on whether this New Orleans offense has any pulse to open the year, compared to their lower-end expectations.
Arizona was sixth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.410) a year ago, but it also allowed 7.3 yards per attempt (24th) and a 68.7% completion rate (29th).
What saved them from allowing the fantasy points to match those rates was that they bent but did not break, allowing only a 3.7% touchdown rate (sixth).
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content and Warren Sharp's betting recommendations, click below to learn more about our All-Access Package.
Learn MoreMore Week 1 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Eagles -- FREE | NFL Kickoff Game |
| Chiefs vs. Chargers -- FREE | Friday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bills -- FREE | Sunday Night Football |
| Vikings @ Bears -- FREE | Monday Night Football |