Chargers vs. Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 3

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Chargers-Bills Week 3 matchup.

Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Chargers vs. Bills Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Josh Allen (TRUST)

We could be seeing the best season of Allen's career, which is saying something.

We are only two weeks in, so we will keep things in check, but Allen is averaging career-highs in touchdown rate (8.3%), yards per pass attempt (9.7), and yards per completion (14.6).

The Bills are throwing more, and they are throwing it downfield, something we were betting on this offseason.

Buffalo has thrown the ball 5.4% over expectations, which is sixth in the league to open the year.

In 2025, they threw the ball 3% below expectations (28th).

Allen has thrown the ball 10 or more yards downfield on 40.7% of his throws.

That's the highest rate since 2018 (44.7%), when he was a rookie chucking the ball around.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Allen is 17 of 22 (77.3%) for 428 yards (19.5 Y/A) and 4 touchdowns.

He has thrown the ball 20 or more yards downfield at an 18.5% rate, also a high since 2018.

He is also playing under center at a career-high rate (59.5%) and using play action at a career-high 41.7% clip as a byproduct.

If that were not enough, he also has 92 yards and 4 touchdowns rushing through two games.

Buffalo has a rest advantage, playing last Thursday, while the Chargers are coming from the West Coast to the East Coast for an early kickoff.

This all sets up a nightmare outcome for a defense that was awful against Kirk Cousins and Jacoby Brissett.

We will get to the issues their offense is having, but because of that, Chris O'Leary and this defense haven't drawn attention for being equally poor.

The Chargers rank 30th in pressure rate on blitzes (30%) and 28th in sack rate (4.3%) overall.

They play man coverage only 12.1% of the time.

They rank 29th in pre- to post-snap disguise rate (18.3%).

While sitting back in coverage and not creating pressure on the opposing passer, the Chargers have allowed a 69.7% completion rate (25th), 8.0 Y/A (25th), a 6.1% touchdown rate (22nd), and a first down or touchdown on 39.4% of passes (25th).

You'd expect that coverage to at least push the ball underneath.

But in throws 10 or more yards downfield, the Chargers have allowed 15 of 23 passes to be completed (65.2%) for 311 yards (13.5 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns and an interception.

Again, against Brissett and Cousins.

Not this version of Allen that is blasting off through two weeks.

Justin Herbert

Things could not have started worse for Herbert and this offense.

Against the Cardinals and Raiders, Herbert has opened the season as the QB22 (13.3 points) and QB26 (7.9 points).

He has completed 59.3% of his passes (27th) with a 3.7% touchdown rate (19th), 5.6% interception rate (30th), and 10% sack rate (27th).

Only 31.5% of his throws have resulted in a first down or touchdown (22nd).

His 7.4 yards per pass attempt is 13th in the league through two games.

He is not protecting the football, fumbling three times last week, including one egregiously careless fumble at his own goal line that Omarion Hampton saved.

Herbert has played poorly.

That's the head pin.

As someone who was very excited to see Herbert work with Mike McDaniel and his potential upside, I am sure some of you drafted Herbert based on that excitement.

It has only been two games, but Herbert looks worse mechanically than ever.

Remember this summer, McDaniel changed Herbert's shotgun stance and base to get the ball out quicker.

Before we get further into McDaniel, I believed getting Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater back would be enough to elevate the offensive line, since Herbert had such strong splits with just Alt on the field last year.

And that was without Slater, even.

Through two games, Herbert has been pressured on 45.5% of his dropbacks, 31st in the NFL.

Alt had one of his worst games on Sunday, allowing multiple pressures and committing 4 penalties.

Outside of Ladd McConkey, no pass catcher has done anything in two weeks.

This one feels like a blind spot for me because, going back to Miami, McDaniel never made anyone good as a pass catcher who wasn't already good to begin with.

Kyle Shanahan has made someone like Richie James a WR1 in a pinch.

When Miami lost their core pieces to injury, the offense always struggled.

Herbert has connected on 8 of 10 passes to McConkey for 117 yards (11.7 yards per attempt).

To everyone else in the offense, he has completed 24 of 43 (55.8%) passes for 284 yards (6.6 yards per attempt) with 3 drops.

A lot is going wrong, but maybe it's as simple as having Ladd available will make things work better.

The Chargers averaged 6.7 yards per play on Sunday with McConkey on the field with a 40.6% success rate (28 snaps).

Without him, they averaged 3.6 yards per play with a 30.8% success rate (34 snaps).

In Week 1, the Chargers averaged 6.3 yards per play with a 41.4% success rate with McConkey on the field (25 snaps).

Without him, they averaged 4.2 yards per play and a 33.3% success rate (26 snaps).

McDaniel has been making Herbert run the Tua version of his offense.

They are running so much motion for motion's sake, to the point that wide receivers are running into snaps.

The Chargers have 13 offensive penalties (31st) and lead the league in false starts (7).

This offense has no under-center component.

Herbert is second-to-last in under-center rate at 26.5%, and as a result, Herbert is 21st in play-action rate (25.9%).

To top it off, the Chargers have a 5.5% pass rate below expectation despite being last in rushing EPA.

This is a systemic failure on every level so far, and everyone is to blame.

Now, can it get better?

There are 15 games left.

These last two games make it hard to use Herbert as more than QB2 (where we already docked him last week).

Quarterback points are too abundant to keep ramming your head into the wall in 1QB leagues, so don't expect a change until we get it.

The Chargers are in a brutal spot with a rest disadvantage here.

The one element that could push them is that the Bills should melt them in this game.

On the one hand, it could get so ugly that everything finally combusts.

On the other hand, the Chargers could finally be pressed to throw the football a lot.

The Buffalo defense has gotten off to a rough start themselves, allowing a 68.4% completion rate (23rd), 7.9 yards per pass attempt (23rd), 11.6 yards per completion (20th), and a 7.9% touchdown rate (28th).

The one thing they have done, though, is rush the passer, which anyone can do against the Chargers.

Buffalo has a 39.8% pressure rate (7th) and an 8.4% sack rate (10th).

Chargers vs. Bills Fantasy Running Back Preview

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