Broncos vs. Chiefs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Chiefs and Broncos on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Broncos vs. Chiefs Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes is coming off another season in which he was mortal, with the Chiefs suffering their first losing record (6-8) with him as their starting quarterback.

Mahomes completed a career-low 62.7% of his passes (24th in the league among those who qualified for passer rating) for 7.1 yards per pass attempt (15th), a career-low 4.4% touchdown rate (24th), and a 2.2% interception rate (21st).

The drop in completion percentage was partly by design.

Entering last season, the Chiefs openly talked about their desire to push the ball downfield again.

And they tried.

22.1% of Mahomes' throws were 15 or more yards downfield.

That was 10th in the league and his highest rate in a season since 2019.

13.1% of his throws were 20 or more yards downfield.

He ranked 11th in the league, his highest rate since 2019.

The problem with that approach was that the Chiefs no longer have an apex Tyreek Hill and receivers who win that department.

As a result, Mahomes only completed 39.6% of his throws 15-plus yards downfield (19th) and 31.8% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield (23rd).

This is not a one-year thing with Mahomes, either.

Mahomes set the bar so high in his early career that we have overlooked some of the issues this passing game has had in recent seasons.

Over the past three seasons, Mahomes is 17th in completion rate (66.3%), 23rd in yards per pass attempt (7.0 Y/A), 20th in touchdown rate (4.5%), and 20th in interception rate (2%).

I believe much of the gaudy statistical divide has to do with his early career overlapping with the apex arcs of Hill and Travis Kelce, and less to do with Mahomes' play actually declining.

It was a perfect storm of Hall of Fame talent intersecting at the right time.

The Chiefs have not been able to recreate Hill's explosiveness since he left, while Kelce is just running low on tread at this stage.

Pair that with a lackluster running game over the past few seasons (see below), and this is how we arrived at this point.

The Chiefs have struggled to find consistent pass catchers who threaten to win downfield and against man coverage.

Mahomes was fourth in the league in the rate of man coverage faced last season (29%).

Against man coverage, he was 26th in quarterback rating (78.5), completing 53.9% of his passes (21st) for 5.6 yards per pass attempt (28th).

The Chiefs did not add anyone to this pass-catching room to move the needle.

They are asking Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy to be better in that department, which requires some faith.

Mahomes will be back working with Eric Bieniemy under Andy Reid this season, and the Chiefs are expected to run the ball better — if not more — after adding Kenneth Walker.

I expect to see Mahomes play more under center this season, and the Chiefs will run more play action than in recent seasons.

Last season, Mahomes was under center for just 18% of his snaps, which was ahead of only Joe Burrow and Michael Penix.

As a result, his 23.9% play action rate ranked 23rd among qualifying passers.

The Chiefs have been a bit behind the curve in pushing some of these “easy buttons” in the offense.

The addition of Walker should help them do more, but the receiving corps still needs to take a step up when the offense has to pass when they are in hard mode.

Mahomes was still able to coax out a QB4 fantasy points-per-game performance last year because he was running more than ever.

He posted a career-high 30.1 rushing yards per game and 5 rushing touchdowns.

A career-high 25.4% of his fantasy points came from rushing.

Returning from a torn ACL to close last year means we cannot count on that to repeat itself.

Paired with this matchup, all of that makes Mahomes more of a floor-based QB2 in Week 1.

The Chiefs have scored 19 or fewer points in four straight games Mahomes has started against Denver.

In those games, Mahomes has thrown for 6.6 yards per pass attempt with 3 touchdowns (with 1 or fewer in all four) and 4 interceptions.

He has averaged 13.2 fantasy points per game in those contests.

Denver was excellent against the pass last season again, allowing a 58.8% completion rate (2nd), 6.3 yards per pass attempt (2nd), and a 3.3% touchdown rate (2nd) to passers.

In this matchup in Week 11 last season, Mahomes was QB14 in scoring (13.3 points), completing 29 of 45 passes for 276 yards (6.1 Y/A) with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.

To compound matters, left tackle Josh Simmons is in jeopardy of missing Week 1.

Last year with Simmons off the field, Mahomes was pressured on 38.9% of his dropbacks.

With Simmons on the field, that rate was 31.6%.

Last year, Denver was third in pressure rate (41.7%) and first in sack rate (10.4%).

When Denver pressured Mahomes last year, he was 4 of 11 (36.4%) for 87 yards with an interception and 3 sacks.

Bo Nix

Nix was up and down again in his second NFL season.

He led the NFL in pass attempts (612) but completed 63.4% of his passes (23rd), averaging 6.4 yards per attempt (28th).

The only playoff quarterback with a lower yards per pass attempt last season was Bryce Young (6.3 Y/A).

Nix averaged 10.1 yards per completion (28th), while 32% of his passes resulted in a first down or touchdown (25th).

This passing game again relied on the short area.

Nix averaged 7.3 air yards per attempt (24th).

25.3% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage (27th) while only 28.1% were throws 10 or more yards downfield (30th).

For fantasy purposes, Nix has leaned on some explosive outings through two years, posting six top-six scoring weeks and 15 QB1 scoring weeks.

That also includes 12 weeks in the back half of weekly scoring.

The addition of Jaylen Waddle could stabilize and aid growth for Nix as a passer.

Courtland Sutton was on the field for 92% of the dropbacks last year.

Denver has young depth on rookie contracts who have flashed, but the next-closest Bronco (Troy Franklin) was at 71.8%.

Waddle will clear that easily while healthy.

Denver was 23rd in the NFL last season in passing plays to gain 10 or more yards (24.2%) and 22nd in passing plays to gain 20-plus yards (7.4%).

These are immediate areas where Waddle can raise the tide.

An interesting note about Nix is that he ranked last in the NFL in dropback rate in the pocket (68.5%).

When Nix stayed in the pocket, he posted a 95.2 rating (14th), completing 69.2% of his passes (8th) for 7.0 Y/A (20th).

Outside the pocket, Nix had only a 69.2 rating (28th), completing 48.8% of his passes (28th) for 5.0 Y/A (28th).

He also had a 3.0% interception rate outside the pocket (27th), compared to 1.3% (7th) when he stayed in the pocket.

Nix can run, but he is more of a passer than a runner that gamers can lean into on a weekly level.

He has seven weeks in which he has rushed for 40 or more yards, but also another 11 weeks rushing for single-digit or negative yardage.

Returning from offseason ankle surgery, Nix may see a reduction in rushing output, but that could also force him to play more from the pocket, where he has been better to begin with.

Nix is on the QB1/QB2 line for me in Week 1.

The Chiefs signing Kenneth Walker was a headline this offseason, but Kansas City spent most of the offseason trying to rebuild the defense.

Trent McDuffie was traded.

Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook left in free agency.

Nohl Williams played well last season and will slide into a starting role opposite first-round pick Mansoor Delane at corner.

L'Jarius Sneed was brought back as a third corner after a turbulent season on and off the field with Tennessee.

Alohi Gilman will replace Cook.

Up front, the Chiefs lost Charles Omenihu and Leo Chenal in free agency.

Omenihu was third on the team in pressures last season and one of their better run defenders.

Kansas City added Khyiris Tonga in free agency, while selecting Peter Woods and R Mason Thomas in the first and second rounds to rotate in on the defensive front.

The Chiefs still have talent on defense, but many new faces are opening the year, which could lead to early-season variance.

Denver is adding Waddle, and Davis Webb will call plays this season, but the offense is losing cohesion and could be exploited by early miscommunications.

Excluding the rookie-year Week 18 game that was a throwaway for the Chiefs, Nix has finished as the QB12 (16.1 points), QB18 (12.6 points), and QB11 (19.5 points) against Steve Spagnuolo.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Fantasy Running Back Preview

Kenneth Walker

Joining Kansas City with a huge payday, Walker should be thrust into one of the largest workloads of his career.

Walker played over 60% of the offensive snaps in just one game during the regular season last year before being thrust into a larger role after Zach Charbonnet suffered a knee injury in the playoffs.

Walker immediately showcased his upside when given the keys to the backfield, reeling off 417 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns on his way to a Super Bowl MVP over the three postseason games.

Walker played 62.3%, 62.7%, and 65.3% of the snaps in those games.

For his career, Walker has averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game over the 26 games he has reached the 60% snap mark.

Those are mid-range RB1 totals at face value.

Even though the Chiefs have not had a productive backfield since Walker entered the NFL, their backs have averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game when reaching the 60% snap mark (the same 26 games).

Walker is still a volatile rusher, but it is no secret that Kansas City needed to inject upside per touch into a backfield that has produced the lowest rate of explosive plays over the past two seasons.

Since Walker entered the NFL in 2022, he has rushed for 10 or more yards on 12.1% of his rushes.

The only running back with a higher rate on as many rushes over that same span is James Cook (12.5%).

In 2025, Walker ran for 10 or more yards on 14.9% of his runs, which was third in the NFL behind De'Von Achane (16.8%) and Blake Corum (15.9%).

Since Walker entered the league, Kansas City running backs have been last in the NFL in the rate of runs for 10 or more yards (6.8%).

Walker has 32 runs of 20 or more yards for his career (4th) with 7 touchdowns on those longer gains.

Kansas City running backs have 17 runs of 20-plus yards (2 touchdowns) over that stretch, which is 31st in the league.

On his runs hit beyond the line of scrimmage last season, Walker posted 8.1 yards per rush, which trailed only Achane (8.7).

Walker's insertion into the Kansas City ecosystem should create the most advantageous layout he has worked with for explosive runs.

Since Walker entered the league, he has faced a light box (6 or fewer defenders) on just 23.9% of his runs (46th) and loaded boxes (8 or more defenders) on 43.2% (13th).

Walker had a 17.2% light box rate last season (38th) and faced a heavy box on 49.3% of his runs (11th).

Facing all those heavy boxes has contributed to Walker forcing the third-most missed tackles since entering the league (82), behind Derrick Henry (114) and Josh Jacobs (101).

Walker has forced a missed tackle once every 11.0 rushes for his career.

Kansas City is last in the league in forced tackles over that span (66) in the running game, forcing a missed tackle once every 26.0 rushes (31st).

In the Patrick Mahomes era, Kansas City running backs have the league's best light-box rate (35.9%) and the lowest heavy-box rate (29.2%).

When given daylight, Walker is as explosive as they come.

That setup should help Walker transition from one of the run-heaviest offenses to the Chiefs' pass-heavy climate.

Last season, the Seahawks ranked last in the NFL in dropback rate (51.3%), while the Chiefs ranked third (64.8%).

The Chiefs have led the league in dropback rate (65.1%) since Mahomes entered the league.

I do believe we will see Kansas City run more with the addition of Walker, paired with the possibility that Mahomes could return slowly from a torn ACL.

This move pushes Walker into the RB1 field, though Josh Simmons missing Week 1 and the Denver matchup limit the odds of a ceiling outcome to open the year.

The Broncos were eighth in the NFL in points allowed per touch to running backs in 2025, allowing 3.9 yards per carry to backs (3rd) with a league-best 67% success rate against backfield runs.

They allowed a first down or touchdown on 18% of running back runs, second in the league.

Against the pass, they were also sturdy, allowing 7.3 receiving points per game to backs (7th).

J.K. Dobbins

Dobbins was again effective when available last season.

He rushed for 5.0 YPC (7th among backs with 100-plus runs) with a 42.5% success rate (14th).

13.7% of his runs went for 10 or more yards (5th), while 14.4% failed to gain yardage (14th).

Dobbins averaged 3.18 yards after contact per rush (16th).

Denver ran the ball 55.7% of the time with him on the field, which made him a one-way fantasy asset.

Dobbins was not a factor in the passing game, catching 11 passes for 37 yards.

He only had one RB2-or-better scoring week in a game without a touchdown.

That leaves him as a touchdown-dependent FLEX.

Dobbins did not play in either game against the Chiefs last season.

We discussed all of the changing faces the Chiefs have on defense this season.

Last season they were good against the run, allowing 4.0 YPC (9th) to running backs, with 19.9% of those runs resulting in a first down or touchdown (5th).

RJ Harvey

Harvey finished his rookie season with 896 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns on 193 touches.

On the surface, he had solid counting stats and came through when needed, but his underbelly of production (especially as a runner) left a lot to be desired.

Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more attempts last season, Harvey posted:

• 3.7 YPC (42nd)
• 34.9% success rate (41st)
• 5.5% rate of runs for 10 or more yards (47th)
• 21.2% rate of runs to gain no yardage (39th)
• 2.66 yards after contact per rush (42nd)

Harvey rushed for more yards than expected on only 31.2% of his runs, ahead of only Michael Carter (28.9%) and Alvin Kamara (30%).

After the loss of Dobbins, Harvey rushed 96 times for 326 yards (3.4 YPC).

In the playoffs, he rushed 19 times for 57 yards (3.0 YPC).

He rushed for more than 50 yards in two of those seven games.

Harvey was out-touched 164 to 75 by Dobbins when the latter was healthy.

He only had 2 rushing touchdowns prior to Dobbins going down in Week 10.

The most damning element of Harvey's production as a runner was that Denver went from a pass rate of 4% over expectations before Dobbins' injury to 7.6% over expectations afterward.

That allowed Harvey to make a dent in fantasy as a pass catcher.

Harvey caught 47 passes (RB8) for 356 yards (RB8) and 5 touchdowns (RB3).

He was targeted on 22.8% of his routes (RB11) for 1.40 yards per route.

We have seen inefficient rookie runners buck the trend and improve in Year 2, so I do not want to overweigh his rookie struggles.

The problem is that this was also in Harvey's rookie profile, which we covered when he entered the league, and it raises some concern.

Denver appears to share at least some of those concerns, as they added Jonah Coleman to the roster this spring.

At least to open the season, I am handling Harvey as more of an RB3/FLEX who has greater appeal in full-PPR formats than touchdown-driven leagues.

In two games against the Chiefs last season, Harvey rushed 25 times for 73 yards, catching 8 passes for 53 yards and a touchdown in those games.

Jonah Coleman

Coleman is caught in the muddy backfield with no defined role, which makes him more of a bench stash than someone we can start early in the season.

Harvey and Dobbins have clear roles right now, but Coleman's three-down profile makes him a contingency bet for both backs, while we could outright see this backfield use all three players.

At 5-foot-8 and 220 pounds, Coleman is a bowling ball.

71.2% of Coleman's rushing yards in 2025 came after contact, the highest in this class.

He was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 42.9% of his attempts, the third-highest rate in the class.

Despite that, he still produced a first down or touchdown on 35.3% of his runs, the highest rate in this class in 2025.

On those rushes where he was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, Coleman produced a first down or touchdown on a class-high 25.4% of those runs.

He averaged 2.6 YPC on runs hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, which led the class.

As a pass catcher, Coleman caught over 20 passes in each of the past three seasons.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Fantasy Wide Receiver Preview

Jaylen Waddle

Waddle showed last season that he can still be a feature target earner.

While active from Week 5 to Week 17, Waddle was the WR12 in team target share (24.3%), the WR1 in share of air yards (48.4%), WR10 in target rate per route (26.2%), and the WR7 in yards per route run (2.47).

While gamers will surely fret over Sean Payton‘s wide receiver rotations, Waddle steps into a passing environment where he can excel and should push to be the WR1 target in the offense.

We saw a stretch last season when Denver was pushing Troy Franklin as the engine of the passing game, and Waddle can handle targets near the line of scrimmage and is a better all-around receiver than Franklin.

From Week 2 to Week 11, Franklin out-targeted Courtland Sutton (75 to 65) and even out-targeted him in the end zone (9 to 5) over that period.

When Denver threw the ball to wide receivers last season, they ranked second in the league in screen rate (12%), third in go-route rate (17.7%), and 12th in crossing-route targets (13.4%).

Those are all areas where Waddle can excel.

Denver has young depth on rookie contracts who have flashed, but the next-closest Bronco to Sutton (Franklin) was on the field for only 71.8% of the dropbacks.

Waddle will clear that easily while healthy.

Waddle is an upside WR2 who has added upside with all of the moving parts in the secondary for Kansas City.

Steve Spagnuolo severely reduced the rate of man coverage the Chiefs played last season.

Kansas City was 20th in man coverage rate (19.8%).

Their previous low was 28.9% in 2022.

With all the changes made, losing McDuffie and Watson while starting a rookie at corner, that zone coverage rate could roll over here to open the year.

Rashee Rice

From Week 7 to Week 15 last year, Rice averaged 6.6 receptions for 71.4 yards per game.

That was good for fifth and 13th in the league among wide receivers over that span.

He also scored 6 touchdowns in those eight games.

Rice has been targeted on 30.4% of his routes over the past two seasons.

Only Puka Nacua (36.8%) has a higher rate.

Rice's 2.44 yards per route run average over that span is sixth in the league among receivers.

Only Nacua (0.81), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (0.74), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (0.57) matched Rice in fantasy points per route run (0.57) last season.

In 2024, he ranked second in that category (0.74), behind only Nacua (0.75).

Rice played only eight games last season but ranked third among all wide receivers in expected points in the red zone and eighth overall in fantasy points scored there.

Rice was targeted on a position-high 43.9% of his routes in the red zone.

While Rice has stacked receptions when he has played the past two and a half seasons, the question is how much more still needs to be set up for him, and whether that's actually a good thing for the passing game or a necessity given what's been available.

When Rice returned last season, he averaged 4.3 air yards per target.

The only wide receivers last year with a lower depth of target were Khalil Shakir (3.7), Isaiah Williams (3.4), and Greg Dortch (1.8).

Since entering the league, Rice has seen 26.5%, 31%, and 35.9% of his targets come at or behind the line of scrimmage.

If we expect the Chiefs to run more this season, given the addition of Kenneth Walker and the injury to Patrick Mahomes, does that change the need for those short targets for Rice in the offense?

If so, can Rice show growth as a route runner?

The preseason sample was too small to draw conclusions, but I want to see whether Rice's role changes this year.

He only ran 6 routes, but one thing to note, if it happens on Monday Night, is that Rice was out wide for 70% of those snaps.

In previous seasons, he has had slot rates of 47.3%, 41%, and 39.4%.

Those have trended down, but Rice was largely ineffective out wide last year, posting 1.51 yards per route run compared to 3.01 yards per route from the slot.

More outside snaps can lead to more man coverage.

Rice struggled to win against man coverage last season.

He was targeted on 21.1% of his routes against man coverage compared to 32.1% against zone coverage, averaging 0.72 yards per route against man coverage versus 3.01 yards per route against zone coverage.

We especially do not want Rice running routes against Patrick Surtain, and the Broncos already allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WR1 targets in 2025 (9.0).

Last year against Denver, Rice caught 6 of 9 targets for 38 yards while having a 42.2% slot rate.

The target potential can still be here, but I am treating Rice as more of a floor-based WR2/WR3 in the opener.

Courtland Sutton

Sutton wrapped up the 2025 season catching 74 passes for 1,017 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Sutton ceded more work to his teammates last season.

After drawing a target on 23.2% of his routes for 1.86 yards per route in 2024, Sutton was targeted on 20.1% of his routes (WR42) for 1.65 yards per route run (WR43) in 2025.

After accounting for 43.8% of the Denver air yards two years ago, he tallied 35.2% last season.

That was while Sutton was on the field for 92% of the dropbacks.

The next closest Bronco (Troy Franklin) was at 71.8%.

With Jaylen Waddle on board and Sutton turning 31, we should expect more of that transition.

The addition of Waddle makes Sutton more of a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX.

Adding Waddle should raise Sutton's depth of target and per-target upside but also hurt his overall target opportunity.

In two games against Kansas City last season, Sutton had games of 4-59-0 (8 targets) and 4-40-0 (10 targets).

Xavier Worthy

Worthy only caught 42 of 73 targets for 532 yards and 1 touchdown in his second season.

Things got off to a brutal start.

Just three plays into the season, he suffered a torn labrum colliding with Travis Kelce.

Worthy returned in Week 4 but played the remainder of the year with a harness.

He had surgery in January to repair that shoulder.

Worthy also dealt with an ongoing ankle injury.

Those injuries give Worthy a bit of a hall pass for the down season, but he is now entering his third season with three games of 80+ receiving yards over 34 appearances.

Behind Rice and Worthy, the cupboard is bare, so Worthy is still a solid bet to have another opportunity to share in this passing game for 2026.

If Rice truly works more outside this season, Worthy can benefit.

Again, these sample sizes are nothing to run with right now, but in the preseason, Worthy had a 40% slot rate.

He was at a 29.3% slot rate in 2025.

While that would be a positive development for Worthy moving forward, we still are not targeting the Denver pass defense for spike weeks, leaving Worthy as a WR4/FLEX in Week 1.

In three full games against Denver for his career, Worthy has caught 4 of 12 targets for 36 yards.

Tyquan Thornton

Thornton was retained after serving as the vertical target earner in the offense in 2025.

Thornton caught 19 passes for 438 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He averaged a robust 23.1 yards per catch while leading the league in air yards per target (26.9).

62.2% of Thornton's targets were 20 or more yards downfield, while the next closest player (Tutu Atwell) was at 46.7%.

Thornton is only in play for single-game DFS gamers looking to cash in on a big-play opportunity.

Pat Bryant

Denver has young depth on rookie contracts that has flashed and will rotate in, but Bryant appears to have the inside track to play the most snaps among him, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, and Lil'Jordan Humphrey.

Over the tail end of the season, Denver has pushed Bryant out as the leader of that group.

This preseason, Bryant played 88.9% of the snaps Bo Nix dropped back to pass.

While Bryant spent more time on the field because of his size and activity in the run game, he wasn't featured much as a pass catcher.

Bryant was targeted on only 16.2% of his routes as a rookie compared to an 18.8% rate for Mavin Mims and a 21.6% rate for Franklin.

This preseason, Bryant only had 1 target from Nix on 8 routes.

Early in the year, Bryant is still only a bench stash and is best left for single-game DFS.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Fantasy Tight End Preview

Travis Kelce

Kelce is returning for at least one more season in 2026.

Turning 37 this October, Kelce is coming off a season in which he caught 76 of 108 targets for 851 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Kelce was still on the field for 83.4% of the dropbacks last season, which was TE4.

He still accounted for 19.7% of the team's targets (TE5), but Kelce was targeted on a career-low 18.8% of his routes, his first season below the 20% mark.

He has been below 1.5 yards per route in each of the past two seasons after posting at least 1.8 yards per route every season prior.

He averaged 0.34 fantasy points per route, which ranked 33rd at the position.

Kelce's top-down usage and the lack of competition at this position keep him in play as a TE1.

There is even some matchup appeal here despite the strength of the Denver pass defense.

28.2% of the receptions Denver allowed last year went to tight ends, the sixth-highest rate in the league.

In his game playing with Patrick Mahomes in this matchup last year, Kelce caught 9 of 13 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown.

The targets and catches were season highs, while the yardage was the second-most he had in a game last year.

With Mahomes in this same matchup in 2024, Kelce caught 8 of 12 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown.

At the front of the season, with Kelce the freshest he will be, he could have a little more upside here.

Evan Engram

Engram caught 50 passes for 461 yards and 1 touchdown last season with Denver.

He set a career low with 28.8 yards per game.

He averaged a career-low 4.4 air yards per target.

Engram was limited due to playing part-time, as he is not active in the run game.

He only ran a route on 53.9% of the dropbacks.

Denver ran the ball just 15.5% of the time with Engram on the field, the lowest rate of any tight end in the league.

Engram has drawn positive reviews this summer, and he did play with new play-caller Davis Webb to potentially offer new life in 2026, but he still takes a significant step of faith as more than a touchdown-or-bust fantasy swing until we actually see him playing significant snaps and drawing targets.

More Week 1 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: