The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Chiefs vs. Falcons Week 10 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 24.5 | Implied Total | 21.0 | ||
| 25.3 | 10 | Points/Gm | 20.9 | 23 |
| 17.9 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 24.8 | 20 |
| 61.4 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 58.9 | 26 |
| 63.1 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.4 | 24 |
| 6.3 | 2 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 14 |
| 4.9 | 4 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 19 |
| 44.2% | 13 | Rush% | 48.7% | 6 |
| 55.8% | 20 | Pass% | 51.3% | 27 |
| 42.6% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 41.7% | 13 |
| 57.4% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 58.3% | 20 |
- The Chiefs lead the NFL in EPA as a rushing offense (12.3).
- The Chiefs lead the league in touchdown drives of 4 plays or fewer (8).
- The Falcons have trailed by double digits on 32.3% of their offensive plays, 30th in the league.
- The Falcons have scored on 14.3% of their drives over the past two weeks, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Falcons have converted 26.1% (12 of 46) of their third downs over the past four weeks, last in the NFL.
- Atlanta has a 52.9% success rate on defense over their past four games (30th) after a 63.9% rate over their opening four games (2nd).
- The Falcons are allowing 2.63 points per drive at home (29th) compared to 1.49 points per drive on the road (4th).
- The Chiefs have allowed 2.18 points per drive on the road (19th) compared to a league-low 1.32 points per drive at home.
Trust = spike production for that player
Chiefs vs. Falcons Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes has put together back-to-back QB1 scoring weeks for the first time since opening two weeks of the season.
Mahomes gave gamers and football fans a scare late in the first half on Sunday when it appeared he suffered a significant elbow injury, but he avoided a major injury and returned to close things out.
With the injury in play, Mahomes averaged a season-low 2.7 air yards per pass attempt.
41.4% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage, his highest rate since Week 1.
A season-low 13.8% of his passes traveled 10 or more yards downfield.
While the non-injury may have had an impact there, Mahomes was only averaging 3.1 air yards per attempt before the scare.
Mahomes has been at 5.0 air yards or lower in four consecutive starts.
He has thrown just 27.8% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, the lowest rate of his career.
It will be interesting to see if adding Josh Downs makes a significant difference here, since the Chiefs have not had a downfield target earner.
Mahomes is seeing less man coverage this season (20.5%) than the previous two years, but that is right at league average this year.
What is interesting is that despite adding Kenneth Walker, Mahomes is actually seeing two-high coverages 48.8% of the time, the highest rate of his career.
While this passing game has not been airing out the football, Mahomes is eighth in passing points per dropback (0.44) on the back of a 5.3% touchdown rate (9th) and the Chiefs remaining pass-heavy even with Kenneth Walker.
Kansas City has thrown the ball 5.2% over pass rate expectations, fourth in the league.
The addition of Walker has allowed Mahomes to play under center (40.1%) and use play action (34.2%) at career-high rates.
All of those things keep Mahomes in play as a floor-based QB1 indoors against an Atlanta defense allowing 15.2 passing points per game (21st).
The Falcons particularly struggle with passers getting the ball out quickly and short.
They have allowed an 82.1% completion rate on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (22nd).
Because Mahomes is throwing short and quick, he is middle of the league in pressure rate (35.6%).
When the Falcons have not gotten pressure, they have allowed a 75.9% completion rate (29th).
Michael Penix
Following an excusable rough outing in inclement weather in Week 8, Penix struggled again on Sunday against the Bengals, passing for 162 yards and 5.2 yards per attempt.
Penix has thrown for fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in four consecutive starts.
Over the past four weeks, he has completed 59% of his passes (26th) for 5.9 yards per pass attempt (28th).
Penix does get to go back home, where he has played better.
At home, Penix has a 6.2% touchdown rate (5th) and a 0.8% interception rate (4th).
While at home, this is not an easy matchup, leaving Penix as a QB2.
The Chiefs are fifth in passing points allowed (11.3 per game), giving up a 61.6% completion rate (8th), 6.4 Y/A (6th), and a 2.5% touchdown rate (3rd).
Chiefs vs. Falcons Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 10 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 10 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Commanders @ Giants | Thursday Night Football |
| Patriots vs. Lions | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Sunday Night Football |
| Chargers @ Ravens | Monday Night Football |