In this college football DFS preview, I’ll break down the DraftKings Saturday main slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around carry more expensive salaries, but they are worth prioritizing in your lineup due to their high ceiling. Value plays are lower-salaried options that come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are fantasy-relevant options you might normally consider but have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to meet their usual expectations.
All references to fantasy points per game are based on the DraftKings scoring system. All references to spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
Key Play-Calling Data
Team Seconds per Play Overall Pass Rate 2nd Half Pass Rate W/ Lead 2nd Half Pass Rate Trailing Arkansas 26.7 35.9% 25.9% 30.0% Georgia 28.7 46.0% 36.2% -- Tennessee 20.0 47.1% 30.0% 57.9% Missouri 24.2 60.9% 35.0% 69.6% Texas 27.1 41.8% 23.3% 53.7% TCU 27.8 44.4% 24.4% 49.0% Michigan 29.0 27.0% 22.0% -- Wisconsin 27.7 42.4% 25.8% 61.2% Louisville 26.7 55.1% 50.8% 65.9% Wake Forest 24.1 45.8% 41.4% -- USC 24.7 63.9% 58.0% 72.4% Colorado 27.8 40.7% 35.6% 50.0% Cincinnati 26.1 51.8% 49.1% 47.1% Notre Dame 25.3 56.3% 44.3% 55.9% Ole Miss 20.7 47.8% 37.1% -- Alabama 28.7 52.8% 45.5% -- Oregon 24.5 47.1% 40.5% 36.4% Stanford 31.2 58.2% 45.6% 69.1% Texas Tech 26.1 51.6% 44.9% 60.0% West Virginia 25.9 53.6% 38.3% 100.0% Oklahoma 26.2 57.7% 48.0% 68.8% Kansas State 30.2 37.4% 28.4% 40.5% Ohio State 23.8 51.9% 35.6% 67.8% Rutgers 27.6 43.9% 32.0% 38.1%
Color Code: Blue: Top 20th Percentile | Green: 60-79th | Yellow: 40-59th | Orange: 20-39th | Red: 0-19th
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO BUILD AROUND
QB Bryce Young, Alabama vs. Ole Miss
Salary: $10,000
It’s difficult to roster anyone with a salary at $10,000 but in this potential wild shootout, it’s probably smart to have at least some exposure to Bryce Young.
Though Alabama has played slow this season, it’s worth noting the Tide picked up the pace to 26.4 seconds per play in a competitive game against Florida. In 2020, Ole Miss and Alabama combined for 111 points, and the total is set to 79 for this matchup, giving everyone a high ceiling.
The Ole Miss defense might be slightly improved, but did surrender 32.4 fantasy points to Louisville’s Malik Cunningham in Week 1.
QB Matt Corral, Ole Miss at Alabama
Salary: $9,200
Alabama held Matt Corral to 29.6 fantasy points last year, which would be a mildly disappointing output on this high salary. However, that low number was mostly due to the Rebels’ ability to run the ball 一 they picked up 268 yards on the ground.
Corral attempted just 28 pass attempts in last year’s game and he’s been over 30 attempts in eight of 10 games since that meeting.
It’s probably safe to assume Ole Miss can’t repeat last year’s run-game dominance, so targeting Corral and his receivers is likely the way to go.
QB Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati at Notre Dame
Salary: $7,500
Possibly out of respect for Notre Dame, Desmond Ridder’s salary has dropped below $8,000 for the first time. Given his run-game production, that makes him a safe cash game bet and also worthy of consideration in tournaments.
In Cincinnati’s most competitive games last season (Georgia, UCF, and Tulsa), Ridder led the team with 45 rush attempts (41% of their total).
Notre Dame ranks 37th in points per game allowed to quarterbacks, but Florida State, Toledo, Purdue, and Wisconsin didn’t exactly have passers capable of challenging the Irish defense.
Due to the low total in the game (50.5 points), expect Ridder’s rostership to also be on the low end, which boosts his potential value.
RB Bijan Robinson, Texas vs. TCU
Salary: $8,700
This is an incredible spot for Bijan Robinson against a TCU defense that ranks dead last in explosive rush rate (percentage of attempts for 10 or more yards) at 22.2%.
The Horned Frogs defense is coming off a performance against SMU in which it allowed 46.8 fantasy points to the Mustangs’ running backs.
With Robinson seeing a 29% opportunity share in the Longhorns’ offense, and running routes on 44% of their pass plays, he’s easily among the best options on this slate.
RB Tyler Badie, Missouri vs. Tennessee
Salary: $8,200
A 33.7% opportunity share and 17.9% target share makes Tyler Badie a weekly target, even on this high salary.
These are two of the fastest teams in the country, elevating everyone’s ceiling in this matchup. When the game is within one score against FBS opponents, Missouri runs a play once every 23 seconds, while Tennessee snaps the ball every 19.1 seconds.
Badie has hauled in 15 receptions in his two games against Power 5 opponents (Kentucky and Boston College), so we can trust him regardless of how this game script plays out.
RB CJ Verdell, Oregon at Stanford
Salary: $7,000
Stanford is allowing 209 rushing yards per game (116th in the nation) and 32.3 fantasy points per game to running backs (110th).
With Oregon favored by just eight points, perhaps this game will be close enough for CJ Verdell to see an increased workload. In the only other game in which the Ducks weren’t favored by at least three scores, Verdell saw 23 touches and posted 43.5 fantasy points against Ohio State.
In two games since gashing the Buckeyes’ defense, Verdell has been held to 17.8 and 10.5 fantasy points, lowering his salary to a level at which he’s worth considering this week.
RB Keontay Ingram, USC at Colorado
Salary: $6,700
Since former head coach Clay Helton was fired two weeks ago, Keontay Ingram has assumed control of the backfield with 62% of the handoffs over USC’s last two games.
Although USC is a pass-heavy offense, Ingram should still make an impact against this weak Colorado defense. Colorado has allowed at least 30 fantasy points to running backs in all three games against FBS opponents.
RB Tiyon Evans, Tennessee at Missouri
Salary: $6,200
Any running back expecting a decent workload against Missouri is worth rostering. This Tigers’ defense is allowing 48.4 fantasy points per game to ball carriers, ranked dead last in the nation. Missouri also ranks 125th in explosive rush rate (18.8%).
Last week against Florida, Evans also got involved in the passing game for the first time, seeing five targets on 13 routes, according to Sports Info Solutions.
With both teams playing fast and a total set to 65 points, there should be plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for Evans, despite sharing a workload with Jabari Small ($4,440), who is also worth rostering against this abysmal defense.
WR Drake London, USC at Colorado
Salary: $8,500
In each of the past two weeks, Drake London has appeared in the perfect lineup combination for the slate on which USC appeared. That streak gets more difficult to keep alive on this salary, but he’s reached at least 25 fantasy points in every game, so there’s still a good chance he still provides value.
Colorado hasn’t allowed a wide receiver to top 20 fantasy points this season, but the Buffaloes haven’t been tested by a pass-heavy offense yet.
WR Jameson Williams, Alabama vs. Ole Miss
Salary: $7,700
Somewhat surprisingly, Jameson Williams has the highest salary of any receiver in this game, but he’s still a player to target in this likely shootout.
Williams is the deep threat in the Alabama offense with an average depth of target (aDOT) 16.6 yards downfield and has seen a 23% target share when the game is within 10 points.
Alabama’s implied total is 47 points, so we should clearly be looking to squeeze Tide playmakers into our lineups.
WR Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss at Alabama
Salary: $7,700
In last year’s matchup, Ole Miss slot receiver Elijah Moore picked up 143 yards on 11 receptions. Dontario Drummond has taken over that role, and should see a similarly strong volume.
Drummond leads Ole Miss with a 26.5% target share and has reached at least 24 fantasy points in every game.
WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State at Rutgers
Salary: $6,900
Though the money keeps rising, Garrett Wilson’s salary is still priced below Chris Olave ($7,300) despite leading Ohio State with a massive 32% target share and 14.2 aDOT.
Wilson has reached at least 19 fantasy points in every game, making him a safe bet for cash games. And his potential for a breakout performance due to his usage on the deep ball makes him a weekly tournament option.
WR Xavier Worthy, Texas at TCU
Salary: $6,200
Hopefully you profited off Xavier Worthy’s three-touchdown performance last week on a $4,700 salary, because that value won’t be returning. The true freshman is now the Longhorns’ unquestioned number-one receiver with a 32% target share in Casey Thompson’s two starts at quarterback.
TCU has built a strong reputation on defense under Gary Patterson, but this program has been trending in the wrong direction for a few years. Entering this week, TCU has allowed an explosive pass rate (plays of 20 or more yards) of 17.9% 一 only Central Michigan is worse.
WR Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss at Alabama
Salary: $6,100
This Ole Miss offense is funneled through Drummond and Jonathan Mingo (24.5% target share). And Mingo may actually have a higher ceiling due to his downfield usage.
While Drummond’s aDOT is just 7.5 yards due to his role in the slot, Mingo stretches the field more often with an aDOT of 12.5 yards.
Alabama’s pass defense might be vulnerable, as the Tide ranks eighth in the SEC in completion percentage allowed at 10 or more yards downfield (41.4%), according to Sports Info Solutions. Additionally, 9.9% of pass attempts against Alabama have gone for 20 or more yards, which ranks 74th in the nation.
CFB DFS VALUE PLAYS
QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee at Missouri
Salary: $6,800
Keep an eye on the injury report, because Hendon Hooker was knocked out of last week’s game against Florida with an undisclosed injury. If healthy, he’ll have a nice ceiling in this potential shootout.
Hooker has posted at least 18 fantasy points in the three games in which he’s seen extended playing time and his consistent rushing production 一 45.3 yards per game in those three contests 一 gives him a relatively high floor.
If Joe Milton ($6,400) draws the start, stay away. Milton offers less rushing upside and has been an abysmal passer throughout his career at Tennessee and Michigan. According to Sports Info Solutions, Milton has a 48.7% completion rate over the last two years on throws that travel past the line of scrimmage.
RB Justice Ellison, Wake Forest vs. Louisville
Salary: $4,300
This is a tournament dart throw only, but freshman Justice Ellison has seen double-digit touches in consecutive games and looks like Wake Forest’s most explosive running back.
The Wake Forest backfield is extremely frustrating, as they split carries between Ellison, Christian Beal-Smith ($6,000), and Christian Turner ($3,400). However, Ellison’s big-play ability makes him an intriguing option against Louisville.
The Cardinals defense is allowing an explosive rush rate of 19.5%, ranked 127th in the nation. On such a low salary, Ellison might not need a huge workload to provide value against this defense.
WR Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest vs. Louisville
Salary: $5,200
Just last week Jaquarii Roberson’s salary was $7,000 and he remains Wake Forest’s leader in target share (21.9%). The reason for his steep drop in salary is possibly due to Roberson finishing as Wake Forest’s third-highest scoring receiver (13.1 points) last week, but since the leader (Taylor Morin, $4,300) only reached 15 fantasy points, that hardly seems concerning.
Roberson leads the team in end zone targets (four), only one of which has resulted in a touchdown, so we can probably bet on his modest 12.9 fantasy points per game rebounding over the next few weeks if his usage remains constant.
Since Roberson was Wake’s leading receiver in 2020, and remains their leader in target share, there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to be the focal point of this passing attack.
WR Bo Melton, Rutgers vs. Ohio State
Salary: $4,900
This is an incredibly low salary for a receiver with a 30.2% target share. Though Bo Melton was held in check last week against Michigan (7.5 fantasy points), Ohio State’s defense is more vulnerable to giving up big plays.
The leading receiver against the Buckeyes has reached at least 16 fantasy points in each Ohio State victory.
Over the last three weeks, Melton is averaging 9.7 targets per game and could easily reach double-digit opportunities with Rutgers likely playing from behind for most of this contest.
WR Braylon Sanders, Ole Miss at Alabama
Salary: $4,800
The last time Ole Miss took the field, Braylon Sanders’s salary was $8,100. That number was inflated due to high preseason expectations, but as the third option in the Ole Miss offense, he’s still more valuable than this salary suggests.
When the score is within 10 points, Sanders has seen an 18% target share, so he has the potential for a big workload in this expected shootout.
WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton, West Virginia vs. Texas Tech
Salary: $4,600
West Virginia spreads the ball around, making it tough to find the right receiver to target in a given week. Three receivers have a target share between 18% and 21%.
Based on the types of targets he sees, however, Bryce Ford-Wheaton offers the most upside. According to Sports Info Solutions, Ford-Wheaton leads the team in targets at 15 or more yards downfield (seven) and end-zone targets (four).
With the Mountaineers implied total at 31.5 points 一 more than they've has scored against an FBS opponent this season 一 this could be an ideal spot to roster Ford-Wheaton.
WR Cornelius Johnson, Michigan at Wisconsin
Salary: $4,500
Taking any wide receiver in this potentially low-scoring game is definitely a contrarian play, but Cornelius Johnson has enough upside to warrant a look.
Johnson leads Michigan with a 19.0% target share and an aDOT of 18.2 yards downfield. Since Michigan has only dropped back to pass on 27% of their plays, Johnson hasn’t seen enough volume to be consistently fantasy-relevant, but that could change against a stout Wisconsin run defense.
Wisconsin is allowing 8.1 fantasy points per game to running backs, despite playing some quality opponents. The pass defense, however, isn’t as strong. Notre Dame’s Kevin Austin posted 25.6 fantasy points last week and Penn State’s Jahan Dotson totaled 24.2 in Week 1.
WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee at Missouri
Salary: $3,800
Tennessee’s receiving corps is tough to figure out; no one has a target share over 12%. However, Jalin Hyatt is a former four-star recruit in his second year in the program and appeared to be the number-one weapon prior to a Week 2 injury against Pittsburgh.
Last week against Florida, Hyatt was back in the mix as one of three Vols receivers to run at least 20 routes. He was held without a catch, but led the team in intended air yards (83 total, 20.8 aDOT).
Tennessee plays fast and likes to take shots downfield, and Missouri’s defense should be significantly more accommodating than the Gators last week. Although his floor remains low, Hyatt’s ceiling is substantially higher than his salary in this matchup.
TE Jahleel Billingsley, Alabama vs. Ole Miss
Salary: $3,600
Unfortunately, Jahleel Billingsley is no longer available at the salary floor after his 24.5-point outburst last week, but there’s still plenty of value on this salary.
In each week this season, Billinglsley’s snap count has increased. And with Alabama likely to need more offense to keep pace with Ole Miss, he may take more snaps away from the less-explosive Cameron Latu ($4,800).
Though Billingsley has seen just nine targets, seven have been at least 15 yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions. Clearly, he’s trusted as a downfield weapon and has a high ceiling if his usage increases in this matchup.
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO FADE
QB Max Duggan, TCU vs. Texas
Salary: $9,000
According to Sports Info Solutions, Texas blitzes just 15.9% of the time, among the lowest rates in the nation, and still generates a 30% pressure rate with four or fewer pass-rushers. That likely allows them to force Max Duggan to make tough decisions from the pocket and more easily contain his run-game production.
Though Duggan is coming off two strong performances against California and SMU, this looks like a potentially tricky matchup and his rising salary makes him too risky.
WR Chris Olave, Ohio State at Rutgers
Salary: $7,300
Over the last two weeks, Chris Olave leads Ohio State’s receivers in routes, but only has two receptions on seven targets.
Expect Olave to bounce back eventually, but since Ohio State probably doesn’t need a huge offensive performance against Rutgers, this looks like the wrong spot to gamble on a slumping receiver with a high salary.
WR John Metchie, Alabama vs. Ole Miss
Salary: $7,100
I’ll throw John Metchie into a lineup or two, just in case, since this game is expected to be a track meet. However, for that same reason, we should expect his rostership to be high and this is an expensive salary for a receiver who’s yet to produce at an elite level.
Metchie has peaked at 19.6 fantasy points, and been held to 12 or fewer points in three of four games.
The reason for his mediocre production is his 5.6 aDOT and minimal yards after catch production. Metchie has just one reception on four targets at 15 or more yards downfield.
With this type of role, he’s dependent on touchdowns to produce big fantasy numbers, yet he has zero end-zone targets and zero targets inside the opponent's 10-yard line.