Every Sunday in the weekly fantasy chats, I get asked about my favorite plays of the week or who is my player pool that weekend for DFS.
This article series covers exactly that.
I will go through the players I am targeting as the tournament plays for all formats here. I will cover core players and games to target for stacks in other posts.
The idea is that this will paint a clearer picture of framing lineups.
Week 12 DFS Content:
It is not that all tournament players cannot be used in cash games. If a player here works out for your team structure in cash games surrounding your primary core, use them.
These players just come with some element of inherent risk, but they are the primary players I still want to be ahead of the field on compared to the percentage of rosters they are projected to make this weekend.
I will have some analysis on the player selections and game writeups, but check out the Week 12 Worksheet for a fully detailed breakdown of the players and games.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel)
Hurts is still clearly impacted by his injured knee, but he keeps getting their fantasy purposes because of his touchdown output.
Hurts has nine rushing touchdowns this season, which is third in the NFL.
Buffalo was able to slow down Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle on Sunday, but that ended a four-game streak in which they had allowed QB1 scoring weeks to Mac Jones (19.9 points), Baker Mayfield (21.4 points), Joe Burow (22.3 points), and Russell Wilson (8.7 points).
Patrick Mahomes ($8,200/$8,700)
From a game theory stance, this feels like a great spot to follow how popular Mahomes will be.
If he is tracking to be lightly rostered due to Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts squaring off in a more appealing game environment, he will then become an intriguing pivot.
He also just underperformed on Monday Night, which could impact how much gamers want to jam him into lineups.
He has reached 20 fantasy points in just one of his past seven games with two of those seven games higher than QB10 in weekly scoring.
The good news is that the Raiders are a passive defense.
They are 21st in terms of pressure rate (32.1%).
When Mahomes has not been pressured, he is completing 75.2% of his passes (sixth) with 16 touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Raiders are blitzing 21.5% of the time (25th) on passing plays.
You used to never blitz Mahomes, but he is averaging 6.0 Y/A when blitzed, ahead of only Deshaun Watson (5.7), Gardner Minshew (5.2), and Daniel Jones (4.7).
The Raiders just allowed 325 passing yards to Tua Tagovailoa.
Trevor Lawrence ($6,400/$7,800)
Lawrence had his best game of his season Sunday against the Titans.
Lawrence was the QB1 in overall scoring (32.2 points), completing 24-of-32 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns, tacking on 17 yards and two touchdowns with his legs.
Backing Lawrence feels like point chasing to a degree, but this is one of the better game environments of the week overall paired with Houston struggling.
Houston has been handing out QB1 scoring games of late.
The Texans have allowed a top-10 scoring quarterback in five of their past six games, with the lone exception over that span being Bryce Young. That also includes Desmond Ridder, Baker Mayfield, and Derek Carr.
Since Week 5, Houston is allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 30th in the league. Passers have completed 69.1% of their throws against them over that span, 29th in the league.
Gardner Minshew ($5,100/$6,700)
If you have to pay down at quarterback this week, Minshew appears to be the option to hold your nose and take a shot with based on the matchup.
I do like both Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, so it only makes sense that if those players are going to get there, then Minshew has to come along to a degree.
Tampa Bay has been dreadful against the pass since their Week 5 bye.
Over that span, they are last in the NFL in completion rate (69.8%) and yards per pass attempt (9.0 Y/A) allowed, while ranking 31st in touchdown passes (12) surrendered.