It seems to be an emerging theme of the year that everything gets thrown upside down as we get closer to lock. That has opened up some opportunities on Sunday mornings for us that may not always be reflected in content from the week. Always make sure that you’re following along on Twitter or wherever you get your most up to date news to stay on top of the breaking news. I’m writing this a bit later in the week than usual so hopefully, no more surprises come our way from now (Friday Afternoon) until lock!
Explosive Passes Allowed
It seems like it should go without saying but targeting defenses that are allowing explosives plays is a plus-EV strategy.
New England and Minnesota have the two highest explosive pass rates allowed on the main slate this week. Their opponents are Buffalo and Green Bay, respectively. Let’s start on the Buffalo side. We expected a run-away performance from the Bills when they took on the Jets. It didn’t come to pass, but Josh Allen ($7,000) put up over 20 DK Points despite never finding the end zone.
Cole Beasley ($5,300) is coming off of his best game of the year and seems to fit in where the NE pass defense is at its worst. Over the past three weeks, he’s seen 25 targets. An average of nearly 8.5 targets per game puts him in the Robby Anderson range as far as volume is concerned. That’s a valuable workload. At this price and ownership combination, Beasley is worth a stack as a flier.
Advocating for Cole Beasley right out of the gate is probably a good way to get people to X out of this article, but if you’re still here we can chat about the Green Bay offense.
The polar opposite of a GPP flier is Davante Adams ($8,800). This marks the first time all year that DraftKings has come even remotely close to making people make difficult decisions to jam in a stud. In my opinion, Adams is playable up to $9,500 and I don’t see a situation where they actually price him that high.
The Packers seem content running on first and ten, but once that fails they quickly become more and more pass-heavy as down and distance goes up. That has led to 26 targets over the past two weeks. Adams has had just two games this year where he’s been active and failed to hit the 100-yard bonus. Adams is unfadeable at the moment and you can run it back with Justin Jefferson ($6,500) or Adam Thielen ($7,200) for the correlation play.
Pass, Pass, Pass
Let’s take a look at the most pass-happy teams on the main slate for a minute. This is across all game-situations.
It seems like Chicago and Cincinnati are good targets. Both of these squads started off as four-point dogs and there has been movement to make them even heavier underdogs since the lines opened. When trailing, these two teams become even more pass-heavy, boasting 71% and 67% pass rates, respectively.
On the Chicago side, that’s good news for Darnell Mooney ($3,500). He hasn’t quite hit the way that we’ve hoped but his price is still incredibly low. He was on the field for 51-of-63 snaps in Week 7 and earned himself seven targets. With Allen Robinson ($7,000) still in the concussion protocol and officially doubtful, we should at least see the safest workload for Mooney – from a floor perspective – that we’ve seen all year.
If those targets aren’t going to Robinson, they’ll need to go somewhere and Mooney could see a bump to his target share in a game that the Bears should be trailing. Mooney is a great way to get somewhat unique in a lineup that features Alvin Kamara ($8,200) as a correlation play, as well. Regardless of script, Kamara will be heavily involved in the Saints’ offense but it will come at high ownership.
Joe Burrow ($6,200) is an option every week thanks to volume alone. He’s also easily stackable with his wide receiver options.
The Bengals boast the fifth-highest WR target share in the league. It’s also a concentrated target tree.
Over the past four weeks, the three main receivers have accounted for 62% of Burrow’s pass attempts. Playing Burrow with two of these wide receivers and bringing it back with one of A.J. Brown ($6,900) or Derrick Henry ($8,000) makes the most sense to me. Deciding between the two is a decision based on how you believe the game will flow. If you think the Bengals hang around and force the Titans to pass a bit, then Brown is your guy. If you think the Titans pull away, then getting a piece of the Titans backfield seems appropriate.
NFC West Game Stack
My favorite game stack of the week is probably the Seahawks-49ers game. This isn’t rocket science, obviously, as you’ve likely heard that game talked about quite a bit. San Francisco prioritized getting the ball in JaMycal Hasty’s ($5,000) hands last week. He was on the field for just 15 snaps, but he earned 10 opportunities on that light of a snap share. Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,400) is in play at this price and stacking him with Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800) makes a ton of sense.
Regardless of what the coaching staff in San Francisco would like to do, I have a feeling they’re going to need to throw in order to keep up with Russell Wilson ($7,800) this weekend. Whether it’s a Tyler Lockett ($7,100) or DK Metcalf ($7,500) week is anyone’s guess, though.
I’m going to have heavy exposure to both sides of this game in the event that this total holds true and we have an old-fashioned shootout. Metcalf is the obvious leverage play – as he’ll be about half as owned as Lockett – but playing both with Wilson and bringing it back with Aiyuk is certainly in play, as well.