The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Dolphins vs. Jets Week 7 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Miami | Rank | @ | NY Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Spread | -4.5 | ||
| 17.5 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 14.0 | 31 | Points/Gm | 18.7 | 27 |
| 26.4 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 20.3 | 7 |
| 54.8 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 59.0 | 26 |
| 60.0 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.2 | 23 |
| 5.1 | 19 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 22 |
| 5.5 | 21 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 5 |
| 47.5% | 8 | Rush% | 44.6% | 12 |
| 52.6% | 25 | Pass% | 55.4% | 21 |
| 50.3% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 45.7% | 26 |
| 49.7% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 54.3% | 7 |
- Miami is the final remaining team that has not led at any point this season.
- The Jets are one of two remaining teams (the Lions being the other) that have not allowed any points off turnovers yet this season.
- The Jets rank 4th in rushing EPA defensively (26.8) but 22nd in passing EPA (-18.5).
- The Jets have four offensive drives of 10 or more plays, the fewest in the league.
- The Jets have converted a league-low 37.5% (6 of 16) of red-zone trips into touchdowns.
- The Dolphins have converted 46.2% (6 of 13) of their red-zone trips into touchdowns, 31st.
- Miami is allowing 2.75 points per drive defensively (31st).
- Opponents have scored on a league-high 50% of possessions against Miami.
Trust = spike production for that player
Dolphins vs. Jets Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Geno Smith
Smith has had only one week higher than QB16 this season, and it was also his only week with multiple touchdown passes.
That said, after a few weeks of tough opponents, Smith has appeal here as a matchup-based QB2 and potential streamer for needy gamers.
Smith is protecting the football (0 interceptions) and is completing 68.9% of his passes (5th), which suits this matchup.
You want a high-success-rate style of passing game against Miami.
Miami allows a league-high 76.6% completion rate, 7.8 yards per pass attempt (27th), and a 7.6% touchdown rate (31st).
On throws under 10 yards, the Dolphins are allowing a league-high 89.7% completion rate, with passers completing 87 of 97 passes.
Smith is only throwing 24.4% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, the second-lowest rate in the league.
The only potential upside cap is passing volume, which you need with that style (or a bunch of touchdowns, which Miami could facilitate).
Miami faces 29.0 pass attempts per game (4th fewest).
The Jets are 23rd in pass rate versus expectation (-2%).
We have not seen the Jets control many games, but the one time they did was Week 1 against Tennessee.
In that game, the Jets threw 6.3% fewer passes than expected.
The bright side is that every team to face Miami since Week 1 has thrown more passes than expected, but that is still only good for the league's 31st-ranked pass rate.
Malik Willis
Willis comes out of the bye ranking last in the NFL in completion rate (56.2%).
He has only 2 passing touchdowns and has thrown for fewer than 6.0 yards per pass attempt in three straight games.
We always knew this offense could limit output, and Willis hasn't posted a QB1 scoring week this season.
That keeps Willis stuck as a QB2, but he's been sprinkling in more rushing lately for those using him in 2QB formats.
He had 56 rushing yards in Week 3 against the Chiefs and 74 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in Week 5 before the bye.
He didn't run against the Vikings between those games, but Minnesota is mushing everyone.
The Jets haven't faced many mobile passers, but they allowed Deshaun Watson 40 rushing yards two weeks ago and 24 rushing yards to Drake Maye on Sunday.
Dolphins vs. Jets Fantasy Running Back Preview
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LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 7 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Bears | Thursday Night Football |
| Steelers vs. Saints | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Browns @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Buccaneers @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Seahawks | Sunday Night Football |
| Cowboys @ Eagles | Monday Night Football |