The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the Steelers and Dolphins on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Miami | Rank | @ | Pittsburgh | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 19.25 | Implied Total | 22.75 | ||
| 21.6 | 22 | Points/Gm | 23.7 | 14 |
| 22.8 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 23.9 | 19 |
| 56.5 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 55.2 | 32 |
| 60.1 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 69.0 | 32 |
| 5.4 | 14 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 21 |
| 5.6 | 23 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 18 |
| 45.31% | 14 | Rush% | 41.78% | 21 |
| 54.69% | 19 | Pass% | 58.22% | 12 |
| 46.22% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 41.36% | 11 |
| 53.78% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 58.64% | 22 |
- The Steelers have led at the half in 10 games this season, 2nd in the league.
- Miami is 1-7 in games that they have trailed at any point.
- Mike McDaniel has a 7-22 record (.241) as an underdog, 28th in the league.
- Miami has a 2-5 record as an underdog this season compared to a 4-2 record as a favorite.
- Miami has allowed 1.59 points per drive over their past eight games, 4th in the league.
- The Steelers have converted 69.4% (34 of 59) of their third-and-short (3 or fewer yards) situations, 2nd in the league.
- Pittsburgh has converted 18.8% (13 of 69) of its third-and-long (7+ yards) situations, 28th in the league.
- The Dolphins have converted 26.9% (14 of 52) of their third downs since Week 9, 31st in the league.
- Miami has 32 runs of 10 or more yards since Week 8, the most in the league.
- Only 48.7% of Miami's yardage over their past five games has been via passing, the only team below 50% over that span.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers threw for a season-high 284 yards on Sunday, the first time he cleared 250 yards passing in a game this season.
Rodgers averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt, his most since Week 4.
Rodgers threw some seeds in this game, and he was feeling it right off the bat with a 52-yard strike to DK Metcalf on the first offensive play.
He completed 4 passes on throws of 20 or more yards downfield, his most in a game this season.
He did not even have a completion on a throw 20 or more yards downfield in a game since Week 8 before Sunday.
To top it off, Rodgers scrambled for a one-yard touchdown, his first rushing touchdown of the year.
That culminated in a QB6 (21.5 points) scoring week, his first QB1 scoring week since Week 7.
He had totaled 21.2 fantasy points over his previous three complete games.
That was his third QB1 scoring week of the season, so we will not overly pursue him in 1QB formats, but Rodgers has another solid matchup to hang around as a floor-based QB2 here.
Miami had a hall pass on Sunday against Brady Cook, who was seeing his first NFL action, but they have been vulnerable through he air, ranking 23rd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.460).
The Dolphins are allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt (24th) and a 5.1% touchdown rate (22nd).
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua was once again not asked to do much lifting on Sunday, completing 13 of 21 passes (61.9%) for 127 yards (6.0 Y/A) with a touchdown.
That was just his 3rd touchdown pass over his past five games.
Miami has gone ultra-run-heavy in recent weeks.
Tagovailoa has thrown the ball 26 times or fewer in six of the past seven games.
Over that span, Miami has thrown the ball 8% below expectations.
As a road underdog, Miami could be pressed to throw more here, but with the spread tight and the implied total on the lower end, the game could be neutral, allowing Miami to remain conservative.
Pittsburgh has not allowed an opposing passer to reach 7.0 yards per pass attempt in a game since Week 8, facing Daniel Jones (6.8), Justin Herbert (6.7), Joe Flacco (5.0), Caleb Williams (6.8), Josh Allen (5.3), and Lamar Jackson (6.3).
Tua is going to need passing touchdowns to get over as a QB2.
When Miami does throw, expect a ton of quick looks.
Tua has the fastest time to throw from the snap (2.51 seconds), while Pittsburgh has faced the quickest time to throw (2.70 seconds) this season.
Running Back
De’Von Achane: Achane was forced from Sunday’s game with a rib injury in the first half.
He did not play in the second half, but Mike McDaniel said he could have returned. He did not want to risk any further injury in a game they were controlling.
We will still follow Achane’s status this week, but he is expected to be ready for Monday night.
Before Achane left on Sunday, he still racked up 105 total yards and a touchdown on only 8 touches, and was still a top-10 fantasy scorer on the week.
Achane has been on a tear, which lines up with Miami’s run-to-pass splits.
Achane has been an RB1 scorer in six straight games.
He has rushed for a robust 7.2 yards per carry over his past four games.
He has a run of 10 or more yards on 18.1% of his attempts.
No back with as many runs as he has a higher rate.
Pittsburgh has been a volatile run defense.
They have limited Josh Jacobs (2.5 YPC), Jonathan Taylor (3.2 YPC), and just held the Chicago rushing attack to 3.1 yards per carry two weeks ago.
But they have also allowed 9.8 and 5.5 YPC to Chase Brown, 95 yards and a score to Kimani Vidal, 206 rushing yards to James Cook and Ray Davis in Week 13, and 172 yards to Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell on Sunday.
As a road dog with a lower team total, we can price in some floor here, but even when the Miami run game slows down, Achane has an out as a pass catcher, which is what makes him such a high-floor, high-ceiling RB1.
Achane has 20.2% of the Miami targets (RB2) and has been targeted on 24.3% of his routes (RB5).
He is also one of the few backs who is moving around the formation.
Achane has played 18.3% of his snaps in the slot (RB2) and 7.8% out wide (RB4).
Steelers RBs: Pittsburgh has been using both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell evenly in recent weeks.
On Sunday, Warren had 11 touches for 62 yards and a touchdown, which may have been the easiest touchdown of his career.
Warren ran a simple arrow route on a third down and had no defender on that side of the field, coasting 38 yards into the end zone.
Gainwell turned 10 touches into 42 yards and a touchdown, a six-yard rushing score.
Warren has struggled as a runner in recent weeks.
Over the past three games, he has rushed 36 times for 116 yards (3.2 YPC) and, as a result, has had a lower rate of the backfield runs in each game than the week before.
We have seen more of Gainwell mixed in near the end zone on Sunday.
Gainwell outsnapped Warren 7 to 2 in the red zone against Baltimore.
Gainwell also ran more pass routes (19) than Warren (15) for the fifth time over the past six games.
With both backs sharing work, they are each on the RB2/FLEX line.
They both are a bit touchdown-dependent, but Gainwell has some elevation in full-PPR formats.
Miami has been excellent against the run for several weeks.
The Dolphins have the highest EPA as a run defense since Week 6 (47.2) and have not allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back since Week 8.
Wide Receiver
More Week 15 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Falcons @ Bucs | Thursday Night Football |
| Browns @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Dolphins @ Steelers | Monday Night Football |