The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for Super Bowl LVII featuring the Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City | Rank | @ | Philadelphia | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
24.5 | Implied Total | 26 | ||
28.7 | 1 | Points/Gm | 28.7 | 1 |
21.5 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 18.8 | 4 |
64.6 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 66.5 | 5 |
64 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.5 | 9 |
6.3 | 1 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 6 |
5.1 | 9 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 1 |
38.06% | 25 | Rush% | 50.04% | 4 |
61.94% | 8 | Pass% | 49.96% | 29 |
37.42% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 41.92% | 12 |
62.58% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 58.08% | 21 |
Against the Spread: Eagles vs Chiefs
- Eagles 10-9 ATS
- Chiefs 7-11-1 ATS
- Eagles ATS as Favorite: 10-8
- Chiefs ATS as Underdog: 1-1
Game Overview: Super Bowl 57
Two teams remain and we have no shortage of narratives surrounding this game. From Andy Reid facing his former team to the Kelce Bros. The on-field product features the two No. 1 Seeds in the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2017 season.
This is the first time that the Chiefs are an underdog in the postseason with Patrick Mahomes under center. It is just the ninth time that the Chiefs have been underdogs with Mahomes under center in what will be his 94th career start, which says something in of itself on how special this run for the Chiefs has been.
This may be surprising, but this is just the fourth Super Bowl with a point spread lower than three points since the NFL expanded to 32 teams back in 2002.
Unfortunately, tight spreads have not equaled tight outcomes. Three of those four games have been decided by 10 or more points. Hopefully, this game can buck that small sample trend and stay close throughout because this point spread should be as tight as it is.
A lot has been questioned about the path that the Eagles have had to reach the Super Bowl.
They have faced more teams this season with a winning record (10-to-9) but the Chiefs have had 10 games versus 2022 playoff teams compared to eight for the Eagles.
The Chiefs also played in the tougher conference, but these teams have faced six common opponents this season and the Eagles have a +73 point differential in those games compared to a +67 point differential for the Chiefs.
Ironically, both of these teams struggled with the Colts the most among those common opponents, but the Eagles were 6-0 in those games while the Chiefs were 6-1 (they played the Jaguars twice).
The Eagles may not have needed to beat a team that was in the Super Bowl a year ago to reach this year’s game like the Chiefs, but they have done what good teams do to inferior opponents, which is dominate those games convincingly.
Philadelphia enters the Super Bowl with a league-high +188 point differential while the Chiefs are fourth (+137).
The Chiefs are first in the NFL in expected points added per play on offense (0.15) while the Eagles are second (0.07). These are the top two teams in plays that have gained 10 or more yards while the Chiefs lead the NFL in plays of 20 or more yards (88) while the Eagles are third (84).
With the Chiefs first in offensive DVOA and the Eagles third, this is just the fourth Super Bowl since the NFL expanded to 32 teams that features two offenses that are both top-five in offensive DVOA.
The Super Bowl is notorious for starting slow given the pageantry surrounding the lead into the game.
This could be the Super Bowl to buck that trend and provide some early fireworks since we are getting two of the best early offenses in the NFL.
- The Chiefs lead the NFL in yards per play in the first half of games (6.7) while the Eagles are third (6.3).
- Philadelphia is tops in the league in points per drive in the first half (3.18) while the Chiefs are second (2.91).
- These are the only two teams in the league that have scored on over 50% of their first half possessions, with the Eagles at 52.9% and the Chiefs at 51.5%.
- League average is 38.8%.
There is a separation between these teams on the defensive side of season-long metrics, but this Kansas City defense has been red hot, something we will get into below. The Eagles are third in the NFL in EPA per play defensively this season (0.09) while the Chiefs are 18th (0.00).
Defensively, the Eagles are sixth in overall DVOA while the Chiefs are 17th. You have heard the phrase that “defense wins championships” and that has held largely true in the Super Bowl. Over the 20 seasons since the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the team with the better seasonal DVOA on defense has a 13-7 record, including winning six of the past seven Super Bowls. The good news for the Chiefs is that they are the team with that win over that sample when they defeated the 49ers on 2019.
Super Bowl Quarterback Analysis
Jalen Hurts Analysis:
Both quarterbacks in this game come into the Super Bowl working through injuries they suffered at the end of the season.
Hurts missed Weeks 16-17 with a shoulder injury and has not been sharp in his three games since returning to the lineup.
- Hurts has thrown for 6.0 yards per pass attempt in those games after averaging 8.2 Y/A prior, which was second in the NFL.
- He has thrown for fewer than 7.0 Y/A in all three games after failing to hit that threshold in just four of his opening 14 games prior to injury.
- Hurts has posted -0.04 EPA per dropback in those games (15th) after 0.11 EPA per dropback prior (ninth).
On throws 10 yards or further downfield over the past three games, Hurts has completed 35.0% of his passes for a 69.8 rating and 0.32 EPA per dropback after posting a 48.9% completion rate, 114.4 rating, and 0.46 EPA per dropback prior on those throws.
Now, we are talking about only a three-game sample in which Hurts has struggled as a passer and he has another extra week of rest here. That said, we are also catching a hot Kansas City defense on top of things even if Hurts does bounce back.
It was hard to overweigh the end-of-the-year success that the Chiefs had defensively given their soft run of opposing quarterback play, but they have carried over their success to close the year right into the postseason against Trevor Lawrence (5.6 Y/A) and Joe Burrow (6.6 Y/A).
Since Week 14, the Chiefs have allowed just 4.6 yards per play (second in the NFL) which has stemmed from their performance against the pass since teams have been pressed to throw so much against them.
The Kansas City defense was the actual story from the AFC Championship Game. The Bengals had the football twice in the fourth quarter with shots to take the lead in that game and the Chiefs held to 40 total yards and 3.3 yards per play on those possessions.
Over their past six games, the Chiefs have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 38.8% of dropbacks (third in the league) while posting an 8.2% sack rate (eighth).
During that period, the Chiefs have allowed:
- 5.7 Y/A (third), 9.3 yards per completed pass (second),
- 4.4 yards after the catch per completion (fifth),
- a first down or touchdown on 28.3% of pass attempts (third),
- and a 61.4% completion rate (13th).
- Kansas City has not allowed multiple passing touchdowns in any of their past five games.
The good news for Hurts from a fantasy stance is that despite working through some struggles passing, he has finished first and second in fantasy scoring the past two weeks of football because of his rushing output and touchdown equity. Hurts has a rushing touchdown in each playoff game and is up to 15 rushing scores now on the season.
Since their Week 8 bye, Kansas City is 31st in rushing yardage allowed per game to passers (34.0) while allowing the most scramble yardage per game (18.3) over that span. The Chiefs have allowed over 25 yards rushing to four straight quarterbacks while allowing 40 or more rushing yards to Malik Willis (40), Bryce Perkins (44), Joe Burrow (46), Russell Wilson (57), and Jarrett Stidham (50) over that span.
The last thing of note here is that we should also play for the implication that Philadelphia will at least be pressed on the scoreboard here.
Hurts is averaging 19.4 pass attempts per game in the first this season (seventh in the league) and 22.3 dropbacks per game in the first half (fifth) before those rates fall down to 10.6 attempts per game (32nd) and 12.8 dropbacks per game (32nd) after the break.
No team has led for more second half snaps this season than the Eagles while they have a 44.5% dropback rate while leading after halftime compared to a 62.7% dropback rate in the first half of games. Hurts has attempted just 22 total passes all season while trailing in the second half.
Opponents have a 71.2% dropback rate in the second half against the Chiefs and a 72.7% dropback rate when trailing after halftime versus Kansas City.
Patrick Mahomes Analysis:
Playing on a high ankle sprain, Mahomes rallied 326 passing yards (7.6 Y/A) and a pair of passing touchdowns against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game. Mahomes led all fantasy passers in scoring in the Championship Round (19.8 points) after pacing the position in scoring overall this season.
This is the third time Mahomes has been in the Super Bowl and the third time he is facing a pass defense that entered the Super Bowl in the top five in DVOA as a pass defense. The Eagles are first in that department right now while Tampa Bay was fifth in 2020 and the 49ers were second in 2019.
In both of those previous two Super Bowls, Mahomes completed a lower rate of passes for fewer yards per pass attempt than his seasonal averages coming into that game.
The Eagles have allowed just one quarterback (Dak Prescott in Week 16) to throw for more than 250 yards in a game this season and just two passers to clear 221 passing yards in a game this season.
Philadelphia is second in the NFL in pressure rate (39.4% of dropbacks) and is the best defense in the NFL in converting pressures into actual sacks (29.9%). Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL in being sacked on a league-low 11.4% of his pressured dropbacks.
With the trade of Tyreek Hill, this has been a different passing attack for the Chiefs than previous seasons.
Mahomes is 23rd in the league in air yards per pass attempt this season (7.1 yards downfield).
- Just 8.6% of his throws have come 20 yards or further downfield (30th in the league).
- As a byproduct, 54.1% of the passing yardage Mahomes has this season has come after the catch, second in the league behind Jimmy Garoppolo (59.4%).
- On throws fewer than 10 yards downfield this season, Mahomes was second in the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.17).
Despite that calibration in approach, Mahomes still led the NFL in passing yardage and touchdown rate this season.
Philadelphia has mushed downfield passing this season. On throws 10 or further yards downfield, opposing passers have completed 44.0% of their passes (seventh) with a 68.3 rating (fourth), and -0.26 EPA per dropback (seventh).
On throws shorter than that arbitrary 10 yards downfield marker, they have been a touch lower, but still strong. On those passes, the Eagles are 13th in EPA per dropback (0.02) and sixth in allowing an 85.0 rating.
Where Mahomes has really separated himself this season is in high-leverage situations. No quarterback has averaged more yards per pass attempt on third downs than Mahomes:
- (9.7 Y/A) while 50% of his third down pass attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown (league rate is 39.9%).
- On third downs needing seven or more yards, Mahomes has averaged 12.6 Y/A (league rate is 7.4 Y/A) with a league-high first down or touchdown on 43.8% of those passes (league rate is 29.3%).
The Eagles have been a touch more vulnerable on third downs. They are allowing 6.7 Y/A (14th) and a first down or touchdown on 38.5% of those throws (17th), although they are second in the NFL in first down/touchdown rate allowed on those third and long attempts (20.0%).
This is a true strength-on-strength matchup on paper.
Of course, we have to highlight that Mahomes is by far the best passer the Eagles have faced this season.
Outside of facing Dak Prescott (who had 347 yards and three touchdowns), it is fair to highlight that the other quality passers that Philadelphia has drawn this season are limited to Trevor Lawrence (174 yards passing), Kirk Cousins (221 yards), Kyler Murray (250 yards), and Jared Goff (215 yards).
Aaron Rodgers was the next-best passer outside of that group, but Rodgers also averaged a career-low 217.4 passing yards per game overall.
Needless to say, nobody there has operated on the spectrum that Mahomes has this season.
We have seen Mahomes punch up this season. He has faced San Francisco (fifth in pass defense DVOA) Denver twice (seventh), and Buffalo (ninth). He threw for 423, 352, 338, and 328 yards with 11 touchdown passes (also seven interceptions) in those games.
Mahomes has had another week to get his ankle as healthy as possible and we will want to see him run more here if possible.
The Eagles have been a defense that has also allowed a plethora of rushing yardage to quarterbacks this season. Philadelphia is 28th in the NFL in yardage allowed on the ground to quarterbacks (24.9 yards per game) while allowing 11 different signal callers to rush for 20 or more yards against them this season. The Eagles are 30th in the NFL this season in yards allowed per scramble, allowing 9.2 yards per run.
Super Bowl Running Back Analysis
Miles Sanders Analysis:
Sanders only rushed 11 times for 42 yards (3.8 YPC) in the NFC Championship, but he once again made the most of his touchdown equity in this offense, scoring twice on the ground. Only Ezekiel Elliott and Jamaal Williams leaned on touchdown production for a higher rate of their fantasy points this season than Sanders. After failing to score a single touchdown in 2022, Sanders has now found the end zone 13 times this season.
In games in which Sanders has reached the end zone, he has averaged 20.0 PPR points per game as opposed to 6.3 points per game in his 10 weeks without a trip to the paint.
The Eagles have been able to alleviate the workload for Sanders in the postseason due to heavily favorable game scripts, but Sanders is still the foxhole back here when the game is in question.
In the first half of both playoff games, Sanders has played 43 snaps compared to 23 for Kenneth Gainwell and 16 for Boston Scott. The Eagles have outscored opponents 49-7 in the first half and then rotated in Gainwell and Scott heavily after the breaks. In the first three quarters of games this season, Sanders has 205 carries compared to 40 for Gainwell and 27 for Scott.
This weekend will be a true test for the Kansas City run defense.
So far this season, the Chiefs have had just three games against opponents that are in the top 10 in EPA per rushing attempt from running backs. In those games, they have allowed 129 rushing yards per game.
The Eagles are number one in the NFL in EPA per carry by running backs. Philadelphia backs average 1.92 yards prior to contact per carry (third in the NFL) while 14.3% of their carries have gained 10 or more yards (first) and just 15.7% have failed to gain yardage (seventh).
Despite facing a light schedule of rushing opponents, the Chiefs are just league-average defending backfields.
- They are 18th in EPA allowed per rush to running backs,
- 16th in yards allowed per carry (4.35 YPC), 16th in success rate (61.9%),
- and 19th in rate of those carries to gain a first down or touchdown (22.3%).
The saving grace for their run defense has been that teams are often just completely scripted out of the run against them. No team has faced fewer rushing attempts per game from running backs (18.4) than the Chiefs this season.
The Chiefs are 20th in yards allowed prior to contact (1.45 yards) per carry. Sanders is seventh among all running backs in yards prior to contact per carry (1.94 yards).
If the Eagles are able to stay with the run game as implied by the game total, then this will be by far the best run game that the Chiefs have faced all season.
If the Chiefs are able to force the Eagles into a negative game script, that is the area where you can see Kenneth Gainwell make his largest impact. Gainwell has had a spike in opportunity this postseason, but his work has been influenced by game conditions. Gainwell has 31 postseason opportunities (carries plus targets), but 21 of those have come in the second half, with 18 of them coming in the fourth quarter. If chasing Gainwell in showdown DFS or in player props, you are looking for the Eagles to have similar success on the scoreboard or be forced into catchup mode through the air.
Gainwell has played 120 third down passing snaps compared to just seven for Sanders this season. The Eagles have not been pressed into hardly any passing scripts, but Gainwell is the passing game back. Sanders has 21 receptions all season long.
Due to the frequent positive game scripts, the Chiefs are allowing a league-high 6.3 receptions per game to backfields.
Boston Scott has reached the end zone in each of the past three games, but he is a complete touchdown-or-bust dart throw since he has had single-digit touches in every game this season.
Isiah Pacheco Analysis:
Pacheco only rushed 10 times for 26 yards in the AFC Championship, but that game provided his most encouraging workload this season.
Pacheco out-snapped Jerick McKinnon 39-27 in the game. It was just the third time this season that Pacheco played more offensive snaps than McKinnon in a game without Clyde Edwards-Helaire and just the second time that he held a double-digit edge in snaps played. Pacheco ran 26 pass routes to 16 for McKinnon, which was the first time this entire season that Pacheco ran more routes in a game than the veteran back.
As a byproduct, Pacheco was able to have season highs in targets (six), receptions (five), and receiving yards (59).
That usage could be a one-off sample and we see McKinnon play more this Sunday, but we are completely flying blind there. We also could see Edwards-Helaire active, although he was being phased out prior to injury, playing just four total snaps in his last full game.
Pacheco definitely still has plenty of fragility in overall usage, but he will need his workload from the AFC title game to be static here to create another high floor. The Eagles look like an exploitable run defense through a top-down lens, but they have been strong to close the season and have been good against the run depending on who they have had on the field.
Since Week 11 (when the team acquired Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh) the Eagles are:
- 11th in defensive success rate (64.6%)
- 4th in rate of runs to gain a first down or touchdown (18.2%).
When they have had any of Joseph, Suh, or rookie Jordan Davis on the field over that span, they have allowed 4.02 YPC to running backs with a 65.3% success rate compared to allowing 5.81 YPC with a 62.2% success rate to backs without any of those players on the field.
49ers backs ran just five times without any of those three on the field in the NFC Championship Game but rushed for 47 yards (9.4 YPC) with a touchdown on those attempts. On 10 carries with any of those three on the field, San Francisco backs rushed 10 times for 37 yards.
One way to get those run stuffers off of the field is by using more wide receivers. 41.8% of the backfield carries that the Eagles have faced without any of those players on the field have come facing three or more wide receivers on the field.
On those carries, the Eagles have allowed 5.39 YPC to backs and they have allowed 2.25 yards prior to contact on those carries (28th).
93 of Pacheco’s carries (48.4%) have come with three or more wideouts on the field. On those carries, Pacheco is averaging 5.28 YPC (10th) while facing a light box on 52.7% of those attempts. Just 9.7% of those attempts have failed to gain yardage (third best) while averaging 1.92 yards prior to contact on those attempts (10th).
Jerrick McKinnon Analysis:
McKinnon only touched the ball six times for 18 yards in the AFC Championship. He now has 49 total yards over his past three games.
His usage highlights how much he was propped up by his touchdown production Weeks 13-18 as he has cleared 60 yards from scrimmage just three times this season. With Pacheco playing more snaps and running more pass routes in the AFC Championship, it makes it much tougher to have high levels of confidence in McKinnon being more than a touchdown-or-bust swing.
The Eagles are 17th in receptions allowed per game (4.9) to backs if McKinnon does regain those passing game opportunities if you are taking that step of faith.
But we have seen so far in the postseason that chasing any passing game from backs has been tough as Saquon Barkley (two catches for 21 yards) and Christian McCaffrey (four catches for 22 yards) have had hollow receiving lines against the Eagles.
Philadelphia is average in receptions allowed per game to backs but ranks eighth in yards allowed per target (5.0) to the position.
Super Bowl Wide Receiver Analysis
DeVonta Smith Analysis:
Smith only caught 2-of-3 targets for 36 yards in the NFC Championship, but he was the leading receiver in the game. That tells you all that you need to know from a passing perspective from that one.
Sunday should be a prime spot for Smith to put in tangible numbers in the box score.
Ryan McCrystal highlighted earlier in the week that the Chiefs use two-high safeties at the league’s highest rate while Smith’s best games this season have come against defenses deploying a high rate of shell coverage.
Smith has three 100-yard receiving games in four games in which the opposition has used shell coverage on 40% or more of the snaps. In the other week, he caught seven passes for 80 yards.
The Chiefs are on a tremendous run defending the pass. Although they have not allowed a 100-yard wide receiver since Josh Palmer in Week 11, we have seen Christian Kirk (7-52-1), Zay Jones (5-83-0), Tee Higgins (6-83-1), and Ja’Marr Chase (6-75-0) all turn in solid outings.
When the Chiefs aren’t giving away the store anymore, but when they have allowed production, it is still coming through wide receiver play. Kansas City is 28th in the league in points allowed per game to wideouts (35.6).
When the Eagles do throw, no team targets their wide receivers at a higher rate (69.5%). Since Week 10 Smith leads the team in targets (96), receptions (63), receiving yardage (851), and receiving scores (six). Smith has more targets than A.J. Brown in seven of the past 11 games.
Where the Chiefs have been most giving is in the touchdown department. Wide receivers have a 5.6% touchdown rate against them, the second-highest rate in the league.
Kansas City has also allowed solid production on the exterior, where Smith plays 78% of his snaps. To opposing boundary receivers, the Chiefs have allowed 8.5 yards per target (20th) and a 5.9% touchdown rate (28th).
A.J. Brown Analysis:
Brown has corralled just seven receptions for 50 yards this postseason, but there were a few plays left on the field in the NFC Championship where that box score could have been padded. Brown had one drop himself but was overthrown on a potential long touchdown when he shook free on a double move.
Close cigars don’t count. However, Brown now has just one trip to the end zone over his past six outings.
DeVonta Smith has made this a 1A/1B situation, but when the Eagles do throw, they have a condensed target tree. They already target their wide receivers at the league’s highest rate while both Brown and Smith have accounted for 80.8% of all of the team wide receiver targets on the year.
Quez Watkins and Zach Pascal are the only other two wideouts on the Eagles with a target this season and they have combined for 73 total opportunities across 19 games.
We know Brown is capable of a spike week any given Sunday and if the Eagles are going to be pressed to throw the ball, Brown will have a strong presence. Brown also plays 78% of his snaps on the outside as well, giving him an equal taste of the action where the Chiefs have been vulnerable to wideouts.
Kansas City WR Analysis:
The Chiefs have been looking for a wideout to step up over the back half of the season and that wideout was Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the AFC Championship. With injuries to nearly every primary wide receiver they had available during the game, Valdes-Scantling caught 6-of-8 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown.
Valdes-Scantling had 107 yards on 10 receptions over his previous six games combined. With all of the injuries at the position, he matched a season-high with eight targets while his 39 pass routes were his most in a game since Week 9. That was the first 100-yard game that a Kansas City wide receiver has had since Week 7.
While we aren’t in a hurry to chase that spike week from Valdes-Scantling, he still does stand to carry the best odds in playing time among the Kansas City wideouts.
We already know Mecole Hardman will not play on Sunday. That means that Justin Watson will be active once again. Watson has one game with more than two receptions this season while he has been targeted on 11.2% of his pass routes, the lowest rate of all of the Kansas City receivers.
Both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney exited the AFC Championship early but are expected to play on Sunday.
Smith-Schuster was forced from the game after 31 snaps, but he was still just targeted one time on those plays. Smith-Schuster now has three or fewer receptions in eight of his past 10 games, posting more than 38 yards in just two of those games. He also has a touchdown in one of his past 11 games.
Dealing with ongoing knee issues, his playing time could be compromised and be left as a touchdown-dependent option.
Toney is the most intriguing receiver on the team, but his inability to ever sustain availability has been a bugaboo dating back to college. Toney has not run more than 17 pass routes in a game this season, but when he is on the field, he leads the Chiefs with a target on 32.5% of his pass routes.
We did see Skyy Moore draw a season-high seven targets in the AFC Championship through all of the injuries, but Moore only caught three passes for 13 yards. Moore now has 58 total receiving yards over his past seven games.
This is a sum-of-parts unit that has been tough to diagnose all season long. If playing a Kansas City wide receiver, you are largely hoping for a touchdown. If it wasn’t for the attachment to the best quarterback in the NFL, we would completely walk away.
The Chiefs also target their wide receivers just 48.9% of the time, which is 31st in the league.
The Eagles have been stiff against wideouts, especially on the outside. Philadelphia has allowed a 56.2% catch rate (second) and 6.9 yards per target (fourth) to opposing receivers on the perimeter.
They have allowed a 4.5% touchdown rate to those wideouts if looking to chase a touchdown from Valdes-Scantling, Watson, or Smith-Schuster, who all play 60% or more of their snaps on the outside.
The Eagles have also been stingy against interior wideouts when they have had Avonte Maddox available. With Maddox on the field, the Eagles have allowed a 62.7% catch rate, 10.2 yards per catch, and zero touchdowns to opposing slot receivers.
With Maddox sidelined, the Eagles have allowed a 71.8% catch rate, 12.7 yards per catch, and eight touchdowns to slot receivers.
Super Bowl Tight End Analysis
Travis Kelce Analysis:
Catching 7-of-8 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship Game, Kelce continued one of the all-time postseason heaters.
Kelce now has scored a touchdown in five straight playoff games while he has a touchdown or has gone over 100 yards receiving in nine consecutive postseason appearances.
Dating back to the Super Bowl against the 49ers in 2019, Kelce has had playoff games of 6-43-1, 8-109-1, 13-118-2, 10-133-0, 5-108-1, 8-96-1, 10-95-1, 14-98-2, and 7-78-1. Just a mammoth string of output when everyone knows you are getting the football.
Kelce has 25.7% of the Kansas City targets this season while the next closest Chief is at 15.1%. His 2.24 yards per route run are the most of any tight end in the league with 200 or more pass routes run this season.
You know Kelce is the heart of this passing game.
The Eagles have allowed 6.7 yards per target (10th) and a 2.3% touchdown rate (fifth) to tight ends. Their resumé has been light on impact tight ends they have faced and none are as good as Kelce, but they have been solid in those outings against T.J. Hockenson (4-38-0), George Kittle (3-32-0), Dalton Schultz (3-43-0), Zach Ertz (6-48-0), Evan Engram (1-16-0), and Pat Freiermuth (4-57-0).
Dallas Goedert Analysis:
Goedert caught 5-of-6 targets for 23 yards in the NFC Championship. While the yardage was hardly electric, Goedert does have at least five receptions in each of his past three games
He has been targeted on 18.6% of his routes run, trailing only A.J. Brown (25.4%) and DeVonta Smith (22.8%) on the team while the next closest player on the Eagles is Quez Watkins at 12.3%.
Goedert is third among all tight ends in yards per route run (1.98) while his 7.1 yards generated after the catch per reception are the most among any tight end to catch 40 or more passes this season.
The Chiefs have allowed just 64.6% of targets to tight ends to be completed (fifth) for 6.8 yards per target (13th), but tight ends have found the end zone against them, allowing a 6.9% touchdown rate to the position (24th).
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