Best Super Bowl Receiving Prop Bets: Travis Kelce & DeVonta Smith

The Super Bowl LVII matchup is set between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, so let’s break down a few Super Bowl player props worth betting on this week.

Here’s a dive into some of Travis Kelce and DeVonta Smith’s receiving prop bets you should consider for the Super Bowl.

Sharp Football Betting Package
Take 15% off NFL Betting + Props

Consider the over on DeVonta Smith’s receiving yards prop

Based on the Chiefs’ overage tendencies, take the over on DeVonta Smith’s receiving yards in Super Bowl XLII. 

According to TruMedia, Kansas City uses two-high safeties at the league’s highest rate (54.8%) and offenses typically attack that formation differently than single-high safety coverage. 

In Philly’s case, Smith is the primary beneficiary of two-high coverage, based on his target share data from TruMedia:

  • 24.9% target share versus single-high
  • 28.6% target share versus two-high

Although that’s not a massive jump in target share, the impact is more noticeable when looking at his performance in games with a high usage of two-high coverage. 

The Eagles have played four games this year with the defense in two-high coverage at least 40% of the time per TruMedia. Here’s a look at Smith’s numbers in those games:

  • Week 2 vs. MIN: seven catches on seven targets for 80 yards
  • Week 13 vs TEN: five catches on eight targets for 102 yards
  • Week 16 vs. DAL: eight catches on 12 targets for 113 yards
  • Week 17 vs. NO: eight catches on 13 targets for 115 yards

That’s three 100-yard performances in four games featuring heavy usage of two-high coverage. In Smith’s other 15 games (postseason included), he’s had just two 100-yard outputs. 

Kansas City has used two-high coverage at a rate of 40% or higher in all but one game, so we can safely bet on Smith seeing favorable coverage for increased usage in the Super Bowl. 

Consider Travis Kelce’s anytime touchdown prop

The Chiefs consistently give Kelce opportunities near the end zone, so take a shot on his anytime touchdown prop in Super Bowl LVII. 

Kelce has seen 22 targets inside the opponent’s 10-yard line this year, an average of just over one per game. So the Chiefs are giving him opportunities to score in almost every contest. 

The Eagles have a solid defense, but they do give up red zone touchdowns at a higher rate against good teams. 

According to TruMedia, the Eagles’ defense ranks 11th in red zone touchdown rate allowed at 52%. However, take a look at how that rate shifts based on the opponent’s red zone success rate:

  • Versus offenses ranked in the top 10 of red zone touchdown rate: 61%
  • Versus offenses ranked outside the top 10: 49%

The Chiefs rank second in red zone touchdown rate, so we should expect them to punch the ball in when they approach the end zone. And based on Kelce’s usage near the goal line, there are good odds he’ll catch at least one touchdown. 

Although there might be some flukiness to this note, it’s also worth pointing out Kelce’s success in games with an elevated total. 

The total for Super Bowl XLII is set to 49.5 points. In 12 games with the total set to 49 or higher, Kelce has scored 12 touchdowns. In seven games with a total below 49, he’s scored just three times.

More Super Bowl Prop Bet Coverage:

Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 57 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.

Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.

Don’t Miss out on our Playoff Recommendations

As a THANK YOU for following us throughout the season, both our betting recommendations and the wonderful content the team produces on the site… we wanted to offer you an option to save and get on board for our Super Bowl betting recommendations with savings:

Hurry, as this sale ends soon AND even sooner, we’ll be releasing written game previews and Super Bowl bets to follow and props when lines are posted.

This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:

  • Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
  • Final 2022 NCAAF Bowls: 18-8 (69%) including 6-0 (100%) on elevated plays
  • Final 2022 NFL Futures: 17-5 (77%)
  • Final 2022 NFL Regular Season: 92-63 (59%)
  • Final 2022 NFL Computer Totals: 37-15 (71%)
  • Final 2022 NCAAF Regular Season: 126-94 (57%)

It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.

Historically, we’ve been outstanding on NFL Playoffs:

  • 159-93 (62%) lifetime playoff record
  • 25-10 (71%) lifetime Super Bowl record
  • 16-6 (73%) on Super Bowl week releases last year (including props)
Sharp Football Betting Package
Take 15% off NFL Betting + Props